Deep-Level Post Election Analysis and Myth Addressing by yours truly

Thing1 said:
A Democrat won a Senate seat in AL. You can say that Moore was a terrible candidate; I can say that about Hillary, but that didn't stop you from extrapolating miles from that one.

'18 is going to be a bad election for Trump. It's going to be a bad election for Bannon. Dem turnout was massive tonight. It will be massive in '18. Trump will be the best thing that ever happened to the Democrats, and one of the worst things to happen for the GOP.
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Because the Rep was accused by multiple women of sexual assault/misconduct when they were teens and Moore was in his 30's... all starting about a month or so before the election.

That is the only reason a Dem won the seat in AL.
 
Althea said:
I agree it was a referendum on Moore. He never should have been a candidate, based on his record from the bench.

But the claim on the table is that it wasn't a referendum on trump. When trump goes all in for Moore, and Jones wins, that's a referendum on trump's impotence in cases like these.

And it cost taxpayers millions of dollars.
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I get that, but the fact remains Moore’s baggage [to whatever extent the allegations are true] was the most significant factor in the race.

Are you saying it was too much for even Trump to overcome?
 
Althea said:
I agree it was a referendum on Moore. He never should have been a candidate, based on his record from the bench.

But the claim on the table is that it wasn't a referendum on trump. When trump goes all in for Moore, and Jones wins, that's a referendum on trump's impotence in cases like these.

And it cost taxpayers millions of dollars.
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endorsement do not drive votes.. they never do -so why the claim they do now? At best endorsements can motivate turnout (reinforcing behavior)- but they do not make/break elections..

The narrow Moore loss is because Moore was too much to swallow.
 
Superfreak said:
Because the Rep was accused by multiple women of sexual assault/misconduct when they were teens and Moore was in his 30's... all starting about a month or so before the election.

That is the only reason a Dem won the seat in AL.
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Why didn't they come out in his previous election?
 
Darth Omar said:
I get that, but the fact remains Moore’s baggage [to whatever extent the allegations are true] was the most significant factor in the race.

Are you saying it was too much for even Trump to overcome?
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I would say you are correct. It was too much for trump to overcome. I would also say that Moore's perversions were NOT a factor for some 600,000 Alabama republican voters who simply didn't believe the women, or simply cared more about trump's agenda. It could be argued that trump's entire aura inspired Democrats to come out in droves...much the same as we saw in Virginia.

A logical extension could be made, that this was a referendum on trump, at least as some level.
 
Althea said:
I would say you are correct. It was too much for trump to overcome. I would also say that Moore's perversions were NOT a factor for some 600,000 Alabama republican voters who simply didn't believe the women, or simply cared more about trump's agenda. It could be argued that trump's entire aura inspired Democrats to come out in droves...much the same as we saw in Virginia.

A logical extension could be made, that this was a referendum on trump, at least as some level.
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The turnout is the factor w/ that last point. I think it's fairly undeniable.

Grind's OP is trying to make a case based solely on exit polls. Exit polls don't encompass all of the data from yesterday's election.
 
Thing1 said:
The turnout is the factor w/ that last point. I think it's fairly undeniable.

Grind's OP is trying to make a case based solely on exit polls. Exit polls don't encompass all of the data from yesterday's election.
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Correct. Moore/trump had no effect on all but 22,000 republican voters, who wrote in someone else. We can speculate as to the number of republican voters who simply stayed home. trump had a huge effect on democrat voters.
 
Althea said:
Correct. Moore/trump had no effect on all but 22,000 republican voters, who wrote in someone else. We can speculate as to the number of republican voters who simply stayed home. trump had a huge effect on democrat voters.
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And that will continue. I don't think it matters how good the economy is - I personally hope that it's gangbusters this year. From the day after the election last year, Democrats have been more energized than they've been in many years. Candidate recruitment - in all regions - is ridiculous. The ground game, as we've seen yesterday & in November, is as good as it has been.

Dems are going to win turnout for the foreseeable future, and that is going to decide a lot of races.
 
Superfreak said:
Because the Rep was accused by multiple women of sexual assault/misconduct when they were teens and Moore was in his 30's... all starting about a month or so before the election.

That is the only reason a Dem won the seat in AL.
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I don't think the assault/misconduct issues inspired democrats voters. trump did that for almost 1 year. You can argue that the write in votes, coupled with those who stayed home did indeed sway the election. As such you can say it was one reason a Dem won the seat, but certainly not the only reason.

Without a massive democrat voting action yesterday, Moore still wins by quite a bit.
 
Thing1 said:
And that will continue. I don't think it matters how good the economy is - I personally hope that it's gangbusters this year. From the day after the election last year, Democrats have been more energized than they've been in many years. Candidate recruitment - in all regions - is ridiculous. The ground game, as we've seen yesterday & in November, is as good as it has been.

Dems are going to win turnout for the foreseeable future, and that is going to decide a lot of races.
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Bush inspired Dean to create a massive ground game, ushering Obama into the White House by a landslide.

The travesty from last November has indeed done the same thing. Contrary to Cinton's inaction last year. The Obama coalition refused to vote. They're now seeing the damage that has done to them personally, and to the country in general.
 
Darth Omar said:
If voters reject an encumbant president in a booming economy—-I’ll have to see that to believe it.

Moore’s baggage makes extrapolating from this race kind of sketchy, but I know how desperate you are to do it, so go ahead, I’ll watch lol.
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thing1 isn't wrong about 2018, the democrats could very easily win back the house (and have an outsie chance at the senate) the problem is the way he arrives at the conclusion is by falling down the stairs. This has been my criticism of him and other liberals since 2016, they lack the ability to think critically about these things. While democrats may very well do good in 2018, that is more or less independent from last nights results.
 
Covfefe said:
So, what were the other factors? You claim it was McConnel and then claim endorsements don’t matter, which is it?
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certainly the establishment continuing to undermine their own candidate didn't help matters, especially in an election as close as this.
 
Althea said:
Correct. Moore/trump had no effect on all but 22,000 republican voters, who wrote in someone else. We can speculate as to the number of republican voters who simply stayed home. trump had a huge effect on democrat voters.
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Thing1 said:
And that will continue. I don't think it matters how good the economy is - I personally hope that it's gangbusters this year. From the day after the election last year, Democrats have been more energized than they've been in many years. Candidate recruitment - in all regions - is ridiculous. The ground game, as we've seen yesterday & in November, is as good as it has been.

Dems are going to win turnout for the foreseeable future, and that is going to decide a lot of races.
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again, the data that you want to ignore suggests this is not the case. only 19% of voters voted for jones out of anti-trump sentiment. Conversly 27% of moore voters voted out of pro-trump sentiment, giving trump an overall net effect of +8pts for roy moore in this race. Again, to reiterate, the vast majority of jones voters were NOT voting out of anti trump sentiment. You have no data to back this up. I have actual data, you have your woo woo bullshit and feels. get on my level.
 
Superfreak said:
Because the Rep was accused by multiple women of sexual assault/misconduct when they were teens and Moore was in his 30's... all starting about a month or so before the election.

That is the only reason a Dem won the seat in AL.
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You may be correct. Do you suppose this will become a common electoral trick as a result?
 
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