Trump ahead in 538 nowcast

Thing1 said:
Well, 41% of them were actually dissuaded...correct?
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the numbers went up. So far when people hear trump, they like what he says. Independents liked the convention. I believe you were one of the ones saying his speech would turn them off. you were wrong :/
 
Clock Town said:
the numbers went up. So far when people hear trump, they like what he says. Independents liked the convention. I believe you were one of the ones saying his speech would turn them off. you were wrong :/
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You said we were wrong about alienating independents. The poll you posted showed that he alienated 41% of them.

You were wrong.
 
Thing1 said:
You said we were wrong about alienating independents. The poll you posted showed that he alienated 41% of them.

You were wrong.
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he gained. as in he went up. when they tuned in, he improved in that demographic. He still has a ways to go, but you are drawing the wrong conclusion. he gained. it's that simple. more independents liked him after they heard what he had to say. Stands to reason that will continue.
 
Clock Town said:
he gained. as in he went up. when they tuned in, he improved in that demographic. He still has a ways to go, but you are drawing the wrong conclusion. he gained. it's that simple. more independents liked him after they heard what he had to say. Stands to reason that will continue.
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It's just a different perspective. More were dissuaded than existed before the convention. I'd wager that a high % of the others were standard convention bump material - those who weren't paying much attention and finally see him as a serious candidate. Could just as easily dissipate in a week or 2.
 
Clock Town said:
the numbers went up. So far when people hear trump, they like what he says. Independents liked the convention. I believe you were one of the ones saying his speech would turn them off. you were wrong :/
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It's hard to go wrong with fear and anger. Most of Trumps points from his speech were easily debunked yet his support gained a bump despite its negative tenor.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
It's hard to go wrong with fear and anger. Most of Trumps points from his speech were easily debunked yet his support gained a bump despite its negative tenor.
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They weren't debunked unless you go back in the statistics data to the 1820s, hell why not just go back the middle ages and the black plague so long as we're drawing arbitrary date lines to prove the world is safer under the watch of Obama?
 
Face said:
They weren't debunked unless you go back in the statistics data to the 1820s, hell why not just go back the middle ages and the black plague so long as we're drawing arbitrary date lines to prove the world is safer under the watch of Obama?
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Yeah well why don't you go and be a good Republican and invade Argentina for us.
 
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