Trump ahead in 538 nowcast

Jarod said:
Those polls barely have any data from the time Kaine was chosen, give that a week to show up, then give the affect of the Convention a week to show up.

It might be bad for HRC, but its too early to say for sure, or to say anything about the effect Kaine had on the race.
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Kaine will have about as much impact as Pence. That is to say next to none. There has only been one VP candidate selection in my life time that had a significant impact on a Presidential election. Sarah Palin. Selecting her as a VP candidate hurt McCain chances as she was viewed widely as not being qualified to be President.

The old cliché that selecting a VP candidate can do more harm than good appears to be the case.
 
I Love America said:
Please people. Everyone knows what a right wing hack Nate Silver is. 538 is not to be trusted. Remember when he claimed Romney would have a 99.9999999% chance of winning in 2012?

Nigga please
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Hillary's still ahead in the primary forecasting model. The nowcast is extremely jumpy, if the polls swing towards one candidate it will almost immediately show them winning. The normal forecast takes into account that things are likely to return to mean in the long run. The polls-plus forecast also has a convention bump built right into the model, that's why it has Hillary even further ahead.
 
I Love America said:
from an electoral college standpoint, it is a long shot for Trump.

If he is able to take PA, OH and NC, then it is over for Crooked Hillary. I will never underestimate the lefts ability to cheat at elections, particularly close ones. They will have to up their game of cheating this cycle. If the white vote turns out for Trump in OH and PA then I don't think there are enough minorities in those states to cheat with. We will see. It is early. But, I know the left didn't think it would be this hard for Hillary. And the drip drip drip of bad news keeps pummeling her. That part I am thoroughly enjoying
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LOL Ya'll really have yourself convinced that the only way Trump can lose is if his opponents cheat. That's funny. :)

I mean Trump is more than likely going to lose Ohio as he has done nothing to develop a ground game for the general election here while simultaneously bending over backward to alienate the State GOP who would be invaluable in organizing and implementing that ground game.

Put the blame where it belongs. In a candidate who has alienated large swaths of the electorate and lacks political organization at a national level.
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
Nate Silver disagrees:

http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7

Several of the battle ground states are statistical toss ups.
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Maybe but Trump has to win virtually all of them where as if Clinton picks up three she wins. That's a huge advantage and even if all the battle ground States were statistically toss ups then Clinton has a 1:1 probability of picking up half of them which gives her the victory. Trump needs to do more in these toss up Stats then be virtually tied if he expects to win.
 
Racists Aren't Human said:
Thanks Tim Kaine. Clearly you were just what we needed.
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Tim kaine isn't what is hurting you. Clinton needs those rustbelt voters and putting someone like warren on the ticket wasn't going to do her any favors. Even hardcore leftists will still vote for clinton just because they so scared of trump. I suppose she might lose out with some idealist millennials, but the vast majority of people dont' base their vote on who is in the VP slot anyway.
 
Jarod said:
Those polls barely have any data from the time Kaine was chosen, give that a week to show up, then give the affect of the Convention a week to show up.

It might be bad for HRC, but its too early to say for sure, or to say anything about the effect Kaine had on the race.
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I'm glad jpp liberals are finally able to adopt the attitude of 'wow... 4 months is a long time before an election, a lot can happen' - which is a very measured and reasoned approach, rather than "HURRR DURRRRRR this poll says hillary up by 5 pts! ship it!"
 
Thing1 said:
Either way at this point. Dems should be wary about a Hillary win, as bad as Trump would be. They'd lose more seats in Congress w/ her as Prez.

Trump winning is probably the best thing for progressives in the long run, as long as he doesn't start a war w/ China or do something completely stupid. He'll really set the GOP back for a long, long time.
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i hope we have a third world war. I need some excitement in my life. I want to watch the world burn and I want to see lots of damage
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Kaine will have about as much impact as Pence. That is to say next to none. There has only been one VP candidate selection in my life time that had a significant impact on a Presidential election. Sarah Palin. Selecting her as a VP candidate hurt McCain chances as she was viewed widely as not being qualified to be President.

The old cliché that selecting a VP candidate can do more harm than good appears to be the case.
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mott other than me you are the most intelligent on here when it comes to electoral politics. I find myself also knowing the things you know, so you are right quite often
 
Clock Town said:
I'm glad jpp liberals are finally able to adopt the attitude of 'wow... 4 months is a long time before an election, a lot can happen' - which is a very measured and reasoned approach, rather than "HURRR DURRRRRR this poll says hillary up by 5 pts! ship it!"
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Funny - I noticed how JPP righties all of a sudden loved the polls.
 
Thing1 said:
Either way at this point. Dems should be wary about a Hillary win, as bad as Trump would be. They'd lose more seats in Congress w/ her as Prez.

Trump winning is probably the best thing for progressives in the long run, as long as he doesn't start a war w/ China or do something completely stupid. He'll really set the GOP back for a long, long time.
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Trumps winning would also mean a complete realignment of the GOP's constituency.
 
Clock Town said:
I'm glad jpp liberals are finally able to adopt the attitude of 'wow... 4 months is a long time before an election, a lot can happen' - which is a very measured and reasoned approach, rather than "HURRR DURRRRRR this poll says hillary up by 5 pts! ship it!"
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Trump gained 7 points in a month. That's frightening.

But, he also lost 7 points in a month the previous month. This election is extremely volatile.

When Romney was furthest behind, he was like 3 points behind Obama. And when he was further ahead, he was like half a percentage point (this was like a month before the election, it wasn't this far out).
 
Clock Town said:
I'm glad jpp liberals are finally able to adopt the attitude of 'wow... 4 months is a long time before an election, a lot can happen' - which is a very measured and reasoned approach, rather than "HURRR DURRRRRR this poll says hillary up by 5 pts! ship it!"
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At this stage of campaigning both Harry Truman (1948) and George H.W. Bush (1988) both over came larger deficits than Trump is facing. Dukakis implosion is a good case study. After the conventions he had a huge lead on Bush but the Bush attack machine did a very good job in whittling down that lead and then Dukakis completely screwed the pooch on one poorly answered question during his debate with Bush that took him from a significant lead to being defeated in an electoral landslide. So yea....4 months is a long time to go and Clinton, though definitely leading at this point, is by no means assured a victory. She may botch a Bernard Shaw question too.

 
Racists Aren't Human said:
Trump gained 7 points in a month. That's frightening.

But, he also lost 7 points in a month the previous month. This election is extremely volatile.

When Romney was furthest behind, he was like 3 points behind Obama. And when he was further ahead, he was like half a percentage point (this was like a month before the election, it wasn't this far out).
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Yet the State by State polling, as it does now, clearly showed Obama leading substantially against Romney in the electoral vote all the way up to election day.
 
Clock Town said:
I'm glad jpp liberals are finally able to adopt the attitude of 'wow... 4 months is a long time before an election, a lot can happen' - which is a very measured and reasoned approach, rather than "HURRR DURRRRRR this poll says hillary up by 5 pts! ship it!"
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Finally? Its been my attitude all along... Sorry all liberals are not the same.
 
anatta said:
I would think that would be your cup of tea..
or do you just want Lenninism/Marxism to evolve organically up in the USA .

I'm not impressed by Communism - in both China and Russia is just another oligarchy of privleged class
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Brilliant last paragraph.

Sent from my LG-D631 using Tapatalk
 
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