Trump ahead in 538 nowcast

Racists Aren't Human said:
Thanks Tim Kaine. Clearly you were just what we needed.
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Those polls barely have any data from the time Kaine was chosen, give that a week to show up, then give the affect of the Convention a week to show up.

It might be bad for HRC, but its too early to say for sure, or to say anything about the effect Kaine had on the race.
 
Jarod said:
Those polls barely have any data from the time Kaine was chosen, give that a week to show up, then give the affect of the Convention a week to show up.

It might be bad for HRC, but its too early to say for sure, or to say anything about the effect Kaine had on the race.
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The polls lag behind the events to some degree. The bad part for Hillary is I doubt the polls reflect the Wiki leak. My guess is it will cancel out whatever bump she got from Kaine. What sucks about the leaked emails [if you're a Hillary supporter] is that it can be a steady bleed---there's thousands of them.

She needs a good convention or there's a good chance she'll be playing from behind on Trump. And it's hard to run a campaign if you're in constant damage control.

If it does pan out that way, Trump just needs to shut his pie hole and stay off Twitter lol. He's actually toned it down some.

Who would have thought that even a month ago?
 
from an electoral college standpoint, it is a long shot for Trump.

If he is able to take PA, OH and NC, then it is over for Crooked Hillary. I will never underestimate the lefts ability to cheat at elections, particularly close ones. They will have to up their game of cheating this cycle. If the white vote turns out for Trump in OH and PA then I don't think there are enough minorities in those states to cheat with. We will see. It is early. But, I know the left didn't think it would be this hard for Hillary. And the drip drip drip of bad news keeps pummeling her. That part I am thoroughly enjoying
 
I Love America said:
from an electoral college standpoint, it is a long shot for Trump.

If he is able to take PA, OH and NC, then it is over for Crooked Hillary. I will never underestimate the lefts ability to cheat at elections, particularly close ones. They will have to up their game of cheating this cycle. If the white vote turns out for Trump in OH and PA then I don't think there are enough minorities in those states to cheat with. We will see. It is early. But, I know the left didn't think it would be this hard for Hillary. And the drip drip drip of bad news keeps pummeling her. That part I am thoroughly enjoying
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Nate Silver disagrees:

http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7

Several of the battle ground states are statistical toss ups.
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
The polls lag behind the events to some degree. The bad part for Hillary is I doubt the polls reflect the Wiki leak. My guess is it will cancel out whatever bump she got from Kaine. What sucks about the leaked emails [if you're a Hillary supporter] is that it can be a steady bleed---there's thousands of them.

She needs a good convention or there's a good chance she'll be playing from behind on Trump. And it's hard to run a campaign if you're in constant damage control.

If it does pan out that way, Trump just needs to shut his pie hole and stay off Twitter lol. He's actually toned it down some.

Who would have thought that even a month ago?
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You very well might be correct, we will see.
 
I Love America said:
from an electoral college standpoint, it is a long shot for Trump.

If he is able to take PA, OH and NC, then it is over for Crooked Hillary. I will never underestimate the lefts ability to cheat at elections, particularly close ones. They will have to up their game of cheating this cycle. If the white vote turns out for Trump in OH and PA then I don't think there are enough minorities in those states to cheat with. We will see. It is early. But, I know the left didn't think it would be this hard for Hillary. And the drip drip drip of bad news keeps pummeling her. That part I am thoroughly enjoying
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I would fully endorse cheating elections this time around. The survival of my nation is at stake. America may die if the right elects Trump. I will have no homeland. I oppose Trump because I love America, and am not an agent of Moscow like you.
 
Racists Aren't Human said:
I don't want my country to be ruled from Moscow.
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I would think that would be your cup of tea..
or do you just want Lenninism/Marxism to evolve organically up in the USA .

I'm not impressed by Communism - in both China and Russia is just another oligarchy of privleged class
 
anatta said:
I would think that would be your cup of tea..
or do you just want Lenninism/Marxism to evolve organically up in the USA .

I'm not impressed by Communism - in both China and Russia is just another oligarchy of privleged class
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"The most extravagant idea that can arise in a politician's head is to believe that it is enough for a people to invade a foreign country to make it adopt their laws and their constitution. No one loves armed missionaries..." - Robespierre
 
Racists Aren't Human said:
"The most extravagant idea that can arise in a politician's head is to believe that it is enough for a people to invade a foreign country to make it adopt their laws and their constitution. No one loves armed missionaries..." - Robespierre
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lovely quote.
are you seriously saying were headed to Totalitarianism?
No matter what Trump wants the most he can get is executive action on restricting immigration BY COUNTRY -not be religion.

Frankly given the idealism ( to put it nicely) of Clinton upping 'Syrian refugees' to 65k in her first term, and more then 100k
( following UN recommendations) shows she isn't considering national security -and not by some Manchurian Candidate scenario.

It takes 2+ years of intensive vetting for Syrians to get in -and even here it's all based on interviews -since documentation
is uncheckable,or possibly counterfeit by ISIL's ability to create false passports.

So you can go with Putin controlling Trump -or Clinton bypassing severe vetting.
Myself I think it's both all bullshit. Neither is in the cards.

Trumps' foreign policy is "transactional" -not an ideology to weaken NATO. It's all a bluff to get them to pay more.
One the other hand actually talking to Putin -as an equal -and not as a "bad boy sloucher" as Obama excuses his failiure to connect
or Clinton the New Cold Warrior isn't going to produce anything but more stupid crisis.

Russian expansionism is a function of NATO expansionism as much as "new tsarism" -and both sides need to
be able to hammer out some spheres they agree to
 
Either way at this point. Dems should be wary about a Hillary win, as bad as Trump would be. They'd lose more seats in Congress w/ her as Prez.

Trump winning is probably the best thing for progressives in the long run, as long as he doesn't start a war w/ China or do something completely stupid. He'll really set the GOP back for a long, long time.
 
anatta said:
lovely quote.
are you seriously saying were headed to Totalitarianism?
No matter what Trump wants the most he can get is executive action on restricting immigration BY COUNTRY -not be religion.

Frankly given the idealism ( to put it nicely) of Clinton upping 'Syrian refugees' to 65k in her first term, and more then 100k
( following UN recommendations) shows she isn't considering national security -and not by some Manchurian Candidate scenario.

It takes 2+ years of intensive vetting for Syrians to get in -and even here it's all based on interviews -since documentation
is uncheckable,or possibly counterfeit by ISIL's ability to create false passports.

So you can go with Putin controlling Trump -or Clinton bypassing severe vetting.
Myself I think it's both all bullshit. Neither is in the cards.

Trumps' foreign policy is "transactional" -not an ideology to weaken NATO. It's all a bluff to get them to pay more.
One the other hand actually talking to Putin -as an equal -and not as a "bad boy sloucher" as Obama excuses his failiure to connect
or Clinton the New Cold Warrior isn't going to produce anything but more stupid crisis.

Russian expansionism is a function of NATO expansionism as much as "new tsarism" -and both sides need to
be able to hammer out some spheres they agree to
Click to expand...

Do not be confused by the deception of JPP leftists. They do not give a wit about any perceived hacking by Russia. They are only using as a diversion from the content of the emails
 
Thing1 said:
Either way at this point. Dems should be wary about a Hillary win, as bad as Trump would be. They'd lose more seats in Congress w/ her as Prez.

Trump winning is probably the best thing for progressives in the long run, as long as he doesn't start a war w/ China or do something completely stupid. He'll really set the GOP back for a long, long time.
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A little soon for your hillary supporters to be rationalizing isn't it?
 
Jarod said:
Those polls barely have any data from the time Kaine was chosen, give that a week to show up, then give the affect of the Convention a week to show up. It might be bad for HRC, but its too early to say for sure, or to say anything about the effect Kaine had on the race.
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Things seem to be heading south for the Hildebeast, don't they, Counselor?
 
Please people. Everyone knows what a right wing hack Nate Silver is. 538 is not to be trusted. Remember when he claimed Romney would have a 99.9999999% chance of winning in 2012?

Nigga please
 
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