Failure Analysis: how respected polling agencies blew the Trump election

tsuke said:
I amongst others were already saying basing it on past elections is flawed because blacks would not turn out as they did for hillary.
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ya. i recall. It was basically a 30% chance at the end. we are all lulled into expecting that probability will become a certainty
 
sear said:
BUT !!

If you read the fine print, you'll see that most polling agencies poll "likely voters".

Not "registered voters". "Likely" voters.

So either the polled lied, or the polling protocol failed.
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"likely voters" were calculated including those who turned out to vote for Obama in 08 and 12......if you try really, really hard can you imagine a group of folks who might have been less likely to vote for Hillary than they were for Obama?.......
 
These polls were more Fake News coming from the left and their MSM allies. Used to turn off republican voters. Hillary has this in the bank! Stay home, don't even bother!
 
#22

Yes. If I tried to do that ...

BUT !!!

I've used applied statistics in applied science for decades. I'm familiar with the practical outcomes of sigma, MOE, distribution, etc.

It's POSSIBLE Trump simply beat Hillary.

SPLENDID.

BUT !!

We'd be kidding ourselves if we don't acknowledge, there's NEVER been a U.S. presidential candidate like Trump before.

Ockham's Razor: something else is going on here.
 
tsuke said:
another explanation is that they colluded with the establishment candidate to oversample her voters to provide the narrative that she was winning :)
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tin-foil-hat.jpg
 
anatta said:
ya. i recall. It was basically a 30% chance at the end. we are all lulled into expecting that probability will become a certainty
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was never 30%. Garbage in Garbage out. If it was 30% according to the polls and the polls were wrong then the conclusions from them were wrong too.

You could see it in the higher than normal early voting and Hillary and the Klinton Komedy Krew desperately going around michigan and pennslyvania the days prior to the election.
 
tsuke said:
was never 30%. Garbage in Garbage out. If it was 30% according to the polls and the polls were wrong then the conclusions from them were wrong too.

You could see it in the higher than normal early voting and Hillary and the Klinton Komedy Krew desperately going around michigan and pennslyvania the days prior to the election.
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If you don't think it was 30%, where would you put it?

Hillary won the national vote by 2%. She would certainly be favored by most pollsters given that to some extent; it wasn't 50/50.
 
Thing1 said:
If you don't think it was 30%, where would you put it?

Hillary won the national vote by 2%. She would certainly be favored by most pollsters given that to some extent; it wasn't 50/50.
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An estimated 130 million votes were cast, in the 2016 Presidential election, so those 2 million votes are approximately a 0.0153846153846%.
How about we round it off to 0.015%, so how do you get to 2%?
 
USFREEDOM911 said:
An estimated 130 million votes were cast, in the 2016 Presidential election, so those 2 million votes are approximately a 0.0153846153846%.
How about we round it off to 0.015%, so how do you get to 2%?
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LOL

I had to capture this beautiful math before you had a chance to correct it.
 
Thing1 said:
Nationally, Hillary won by about 2%, which wasn't far off from most of the polling.
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2 million. Like the votes cast in Detroit where some ballots were counted 6 times in favor of Hillary? Perhaps a national recount should be undertaken with LIBERAL STRONGHOLDS targeted...it would not take long. :) And what's to loose? Trump has already won. Let's spend some more LIBERAL MONEY in order to find the TRUTH...after all that all they want for the GOOD OF THE NATION...right...err...left? I wonder if the left would go for that type of Safari for Truth?
 
Thing1 said:
Popular vote tally:
Hillary Clinton - 65,818,412- 48.08%
Donald Trump - 62,958,481 - 45.99%
Difference: 2,859,931

Actually, a little over 2%.
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Did you not see that I used the voting total and not just trying to use what helps the liberals skew the actual results.

Just admit it, Trump will PRESIDENT TRUMP this coming January, for at least the next 4 years, and maybe for the next 8. :D
 
Thing1 said:
Popular vote tally:
Hillary Clinton - 65,818,412- 48.08%
Donald Trump - 62,958,481 - 45.99%
Difference: 2,859,931

Actually, a little over 2%.
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Which is a slim margin considering the total number of votes. That never gets mentioned.

It's only remarkable compared to recent elections, which were also remarkably close with respect to the total number of votes cast.

It's actually amusing to hear liberals say Trump lost the popular vote by some huge margin when the take home story is how evenly the country is divided.
 
USFREEDOM911 said:
Did you not see that I used the voting total and not just trying to use what helps the liberals skew the actual results.

Just admit it, Trump will PRESIDENT TRUMP this coming January, for at least the next 4 years, and maybe for the next 8. :D
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That's not even good spin.

Your % was flat-out wrong. Some of the dumbest math I've ever seen.
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
Which is a slim margin considering the total number of votes. That never gets mentioned.

It's only remarkable compared to recent elections, which were also remarkably close with respect to the total number of votes cast.

It's actually amusing to hear liberals say Trump lost the popular vote by some huge margin when the take home story is how evenly the country is divided.
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Where did I say it was a big margin, idjit?
 
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