re the fresh 100K the Russians have in the North ready to drive towards Kiev I am hearing two points:
1) The Russians sometimes do this as misdirection, it does not mean that the main effort of the summer offensive will be in the North
2) But it likely is, in retaliation for Kursk and to put the fear of God into the elites in Kiev....the elites are mostly now in Kiev (partying a lot of the time) and thats where most of the arms factories are, and whatever remains of the air defense in the effort to protect both....understanding that NATO air defense is not very good in the best of times, for instance the vaunted THAAD system just failed spectacularly in Israel.