Putin is not "crazy" and the west misunderstands tis war

anatta

100% recycled karma
Just two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amounted to a serious setback.

DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the capital had not fallen.

But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Once again, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to understand the enemy and his objectives.

, Putin believed that the Ukrainian government would collapse once Russian troops crossed the frontier and pushed to Kyiv, and that the operation has failed because the Ukrainian government remains in place.

Putin certainly hoped for a swift victory, but he clearly was not relying on his opening salvo as the only plan for success.

Rather, the Russian military was prepared to take the country by force if a swift decapitation strike fell short.

This kind of plan should be familiar to Americans who remember the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

In the first hours of the war, the U.S. Air Force launched its 'shock and awe' campaign in an attempt to kill Saddam Hussein and other key leaders and bring down the government. Saddam survived, but the U.S. military was fully prepared to follow up with a ground assault.

A look at the Russian military offensive demonstrates there was a plan for a full-scale invasion, which Russia is now executing.

Conventional, mechanized warfare is a time and resource consuming enterprise, and an operation of this scope isn't cobbled together in days.

The Russian offensive is taking place on four separate fronts. On a fifth front, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent last week, Russian forces are tying down Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere.

The bulk of the Russian forces are advancing southward from Belarus to Kyiv.

Russian advance forces, including air, mobile and reconnaissance troops, have been engaged with Ukrainian troops outside of Kyiv since the start of the war.

A massive column of Russian troops, estimated at over 40 miles long, is just 20 miles north of Kyiv, and is likely assembling to surround the capital.

If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.

What matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital.
 
The southward push from Belarus to Kyiv is supported by another Russian column, launched from the east in the vicinity of Kursk.

If this column can link up with Russian troops near Kyiv, it will envelop Ukrainian forces in most of Chernihiv and Sumy provinces, depriving the Ukrainian military of much needed soldiers and war material needed elsewhere, and cutting off the government from two northern provinces.

Further east, Russian forces have launched a broad offensive aimed at Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, which is now under siege.

In the south, Russian forces, supported by amphibious assaults from the Sea of Azov, have poured into Ukraine from Crimea.

On this front, Russian forces have branched out along two main axes, one northwest along the Pivdennyi Buh River, and another northeast along the coast and inland towards the Donbas region, which Russia declared independent shortly before the invasion.

If Russian columns from either southern front can link up with forces further north, they would cut off many Ukrainian troops from reinforcement—one of the two columns has already advanced roughly 160 miles.

Russian generals have often chosen to bypass towns and cities that are putting up stiff opposition and isolating them to deal with later.

The systematic nature of the Russian assault is at odds with speculation that Putin has lost control of his senses.

Nobody knows for sure, but Putin's actions appear to be that of a cold and calculating adversary.

Dismissing his decision to invade Ukraine as a form of madness is effectively an excuse to ignore Putin's likely motivations and future actions.

Strategically, Putin's advance on Ukraine began well over a decade ago, when he invaded and Balkanized Georgia by recognizing the Kremlin's puppet regimes in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine by force is in his and Russia's interest.

He no doubt anticipated that the West would impose diplomatic and economic sanctions, which U.S. and European leaders threatened beforehand.

Putin may have miscalculated Ukrainian resistance and the intensity of the West's opposition, but it doesn't mean he is crazy, or didn't consider the possibilities and chose to invade regardless.

It remains to be seen if Putin's plan will succeed or fail, but what is clear is that there was a plan to invade Ukraine in force, and that plan has been executed since day one.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ling-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html
 
by Bill Roggio

Senior Fellow and Editor of FDD's Long War Journal
Expertise:
Afghanistan, India, Indo-Pacific, Iran Global Threat Network, Pakistan, The Long War
Projects:
FDD’s Long War Journal, Center on Military and Political Power
 
Just two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amounted to a serious setback.

DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the capital had not fallen.

But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Once again, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to understand the enemy and his objectives.

, Putin believed that the Ukrainian government would collapse once Russian troops crossed the frontier and pushed to Kyiv, and that the operation has failed because the Ukrainian government remains in place.

Putin certainly hoped for a swift victory, but he clearly was not relying on his opening salvo as the only plan for success.

Rather, the Russian military was prepared to take the country by force if a swift decapitation strike fell short.

This kind of plan should be familiar to Americans who remember the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

In the first hours of the war, the U.S. Air Force launched its 'shock and awe' campaign in an attempt to kill Saddam Hussein and other key leaders and bring down the government. Saddam survived, but the U.S. military was fully prepared to follow up with a ground assault.

A look at the Russian military offensive demonstrates there was a plan for a full-scale invasion, which Russia is now executing.

Conventional, mechanized warfare is a time and resource consuming enterprise, and an operation of this scope isn't cobbled together in days.

The Russian offensive is taking place on four separate fronts. On a fifth front, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent last week, Russian forces are tying down Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere.

The bulk of the Russian forces are advancing southward from Belarus to Kyiv.

Russian advance forces, including air, mobile and reconnaissance troops, have been engaged with Ukrainian troops outside of Kyiv since the start of the war.

A massive column of Russian troops, estimated at over 40 miles long, is just 20 miles north of Kyiv, and is likely assembling to surround the capital.

If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.

What matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital.

What matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital

Fifth columnist and Putin apologist should be taken down by federal security services, if really living in America
 
Just two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amounted to a serious setback.

DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the capital had not fallen.

But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Once again, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to understand the enemy and his objectives.

, Putin believed that the Ukrainian government would collapse once Russian troops crossed the frontier and pushed to Kyiv, and that the operation has failed because the Ukrainian government remains in place.

Putin certainly hoped for a swift victory, but he clearly was not relying on his opening salvo as the only plan for success.

Rather, the Russian military was prepared to take the country by force if a swift decapitation strike fell short.

This kind of plan should be familiar to Americans who remember the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

In the first hours of the war, the U.S. Air Force launched its 'shock and awe' campaign in an attempt to kill Saddam Hussein and other key leaders and bring down the government. Saddam survived, but the U.S. military was fully prepared to follow up with a ground assault.

A look at the Russian military offensive demonstrates there was a plan for a full-scale invasion, which Russia is now executing.

Conventional, mechanized warfare is a time and resource consuming enterprise, and an operation of this scope isn't cobbled together in days.

The Russian offensive is taking place on four separate fronts. On a fifth front, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent last week, Russian forces are tying down Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere.

The bulk of the Russian forces are advancing southward from Belarus to Kyiv.

Russian advance forces, including air, mobile and reconnaissance troops, have been engaged with Ukrainian troops outside of Kyiv since the start of the war.

A massive column of Russian troops, estimated at over 40 miles long, is just 20 miles north of Kyiv, and is likely assembling to surround the capital.

If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.

What matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital.

Along with this orchestrated pile of bs, apparently you misunderstand acceptable grammar.

Is Putin suffering 'delirium and confusion' due to Long COVID? Questions arise over Russian leader’s mental state after rumours of cancer and Parkinson’s disease
Vladimir Putin, 69, could be suffering from hubris syndrome, according to expert
It is associated with a loss of contact with reality and inability to weigh up risk
Rumours of Putin's poor health have been circulating for years
In 2014, New York Post reported Vladimir Putin had 'cancer of the spinal cord'
Putin was allegedly being treated by a doctor from the old East Germany
Meanwhile in 2020, Valery Solovei, a critic of Putin, repeated the claims
Said Putin had surgery in February, source added it was abdominal cancer

Although it's not clear if he's had the virus, the Sputnik vaccine is not known to be reliable and after isolating in September after members of his inner circle tested positive he disappeared from view for a long period in October.

The US thinktank The Council For Foreign relations has speculated that, after behaviour and statements that are 'off' and 'not right,' he is suffering brain fog induced by Long Covid.

What's more, the isolation caused by the pandemic itself could have left the 69-year-old even further detached from reality, with one neuropsychologist claiming the 'progressive isolation' could have led to hubris syndrome, which 'diminished his ability to weigh up risk'.

Speaking to FEMAIL, Clinical Director at Medicine Direct. Hussain Abdeh explained how a person's mental state could be uprooted by the virus.

He explained: 'Research early on into the pandemic also found that a small number of people who tested positive for COVID-19 experienced sudden behavioural changes including delirium, confusion, and agitation.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10551251/Did-Covid-send-Putin-mad.html
 
Last edited:
1. No one is questioning that a large SuperPower can invade and conquer a smaller neighbor. EVERYONE predicts that is what will happen.

2. What is astonishing is that Putin claims 'Ukraine and Russia are One People'. Then ... destroys the country and kills the citizens. It's comparable to the US invading Canada ... then bomb and kill Canadians.

3. The 'Putin Gambit'. Or 'How to Lose a Chess Game in One Move'.







Just two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amounted to a serious setback.

DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the capital had not fallen.

But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Once again, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to understand the enemy and his objectives.

, Putin believed that the Ukrainian government would collapse once Russian troops crossed the frontier and pushed to Kyiv, and that the operation has failed because the Ukrainian government remains in place.

Putin certainly hoped for a swift victory, but he clearly was not relying on his opening salvo as the only plan for success.

Rather, the Russian military was prepared to take the country by force if a swift decapitation strike fell short.

This kind of plan should be familiar to Americans who remember the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

In the first hours of the war, the U.S. Air Force launched its 'shock and awe' campaign in an attempt to kill Saddam Hussein and other key leaders and bring down the government. Saddam survived, but the U.S. military was fully prepared to follow up with a ground assault.

A look at the Russian military offensive demonstrates there was a plan for a full-scale invasion, which Russia is now executing.

Conventional, mechanized warfare is a time and resource consuming enterprise, and an operation of this scope isn't cobbled together in days.

The Russian offensive is taking place on four separate fronts. On a fifth front, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent last week, Russian forces are tying down Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere.

The bulk of the Russian forces are advancing southward from Belarus to Kyiv.

Russian advance forces, including air, mobile and reconnaissance troops, have been engaged with Ukrainian troops outside of Kyiv since the start of the war.

A massive column of Russian troops, estimated at over 40 miles long, is just 20 miles north of Kyiv, and is likely assembling to surround the capital.

If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.

What matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital.
 
Putin is not "crazy" and the west misunderstands this war

This is what I have been pointing out for days. It looks to me like the Empire is playing chess and the West is playing checkers.

As they do Ukraine is getting chewed up.
 
Along with this orchestrated pile of bs, apparently you misunderstand acceptable grammar.

Is Putin suffering 'delirium and confusion' due to Long COVID? Questions arise over Russian leader’s mental state after rumours of cancer and Parkinson’s disease
Vladimir Putin, 69, could be suffering from hubris syndrome, according to expert
It is associated with a loss of contact with reality and inability to weigh up risk
Rumours of Putin's poor health have been circulating for years
In 2014, New York Post reported Vladimir Putin had 'cancer of the spinal cord'
Putin was allegedly being treated by a doctor from the old East Germany
Meanwhile in 2020, Valery Solovei, a critic of Putin, repeated the claims
Said Putin had surgery in February, source added it was abdominal cancer

Although it's not clear if he's had the virus, the Sputnik vaccine is not known to be reliable and after isolating in September after members of his inner circle tested positive he disappeared from view for a long period in October.

The US thinktank The Council For Foreign relations has speculated that, after behaviour and statements that are 'off' and 'not right,' he is suffering brain fog induced by Long Covid.

What's more, the isolation caused by the pandemic itself could have left the 69-year-old even further detached from reality, with one neuropsychologist claiming the 'progressive isolation' could have led to hubris syndrome, which 'diminished his ability to weigh up risk'.

Speaking to FEMAIL, Clinical Director at Medicine Direct. Hussain Abdeh explained how a person's mental state could be uprooted by the virus.

He explained: 'Research early on into the pandemic also found that a small number of people who tested positive for COVID-19 experienced sudden behavioural changes including delirium, confusion, and agitation.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10551251/Did-Covid-send-Putin-mad.html
amazing how you can write this while the entire point is to show the military strategy is not "hubris syndrome"
 
This is what I have been pointing out for days. It looks to me like the Empire is playing chess and the West is playing checkers.

As they do Ukraine is getting chewed up.

Will Ukrainians hug their Russian Brothers, Dance in Circles, throw Flowers in the Air?

Or will this Day forever Divide Ukrainians and Russians?
 
The southward push from Belarus to Kyiv is supported by another Russian column, launched from the east in the vicinity of Kursk.

If this column can link up with Russian troops near Kyiv, it will envelop Ukrainian forces in most of Chernihiv and Sumy provinces, depriving the Ukrainian military of much needed soldiers and war material needed elsewhere, and cutting off the government from two northern provinces.

Further east, Russian forces have launched a broad offensive aimed at Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, which is now under siege.

In the south, Russian forces, supported by amphibious assaults from the Sea of Azov, have poured into Ukraine from Crimea.

On this front, Russian forces have branched out along two main axes, one northwest along the Pivdennyi Buh River, and another northeast along the coast and inland towards the Donbas region, which Russia declared independent shortly before the invasion.

If Russian columns from either southern front can link up with forces further north, they would cut off many Ukrainian troops from reinforcement—one of the two columns has already advanced roughly 160 miles.

Russian generals have often chosen to bypass towns and cities that are putting up stiff opposition and isolating them to deal with later.

The systematic nature of the Russian assault is at odds with speculation that Putin has lost control of his senses.

Nobody knows for sure, but Putin's actions appear to be that of a cold and calculating adversary.

Dismissing his decision to invade Ukraine as a form of madness is effectively an excuse to ignore Putin's likely motivations and future actions.

Strategically, Putin's advance on Ukraine began well over a decade ago, when he invaded and Balkanized Georgia by recognizing the Kremlin's puppet regimes in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine by force is in his and Russia's interest.

He no doubt anticipated that the West would impose diplomatic and economic sanctions, which U.S. and European leaders threatened beforehand.

Putin may have miscalculated Ukrainian resistance and the intensity of the West's opposition, but it doesn't mean he is crazy, or didn't consider the possibilities and chose to invade regardless.

It remains to be seen if Putin's plan will succeed or fail, but what is clear is that there was a plan to invade Ukraine in force, and that plan has been executed since day one.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ling-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html

NATO should have admitted Georgia a decade ago, instead of which Mikheil Saakashvili left and went to
Odessa as Governor. He blamed President Poroshenko personally for enabling corruption in Odessa and in Ukraine overall and resigned.
 
Will Ukrainians hug their Russian Brothers, Dance in Circles, throw Flowers in the Air?

Or will this Day forever Divide Ukrainians and Russians?

I suspect that the Ukrainians will be taught that one does not poke bears.
 
1. No one is questioning that a large SuperPower can invade and conquer a smaller neighbor. EVERYONE predicts that is what will happen.

2. What is astonishing is that Putin claims 'Ukraine and Russia are One People'. Then ... destroys the country and kills the citizens. It's comparable to the US invading Canada ... then bomb and kill Canadians.

3. The 'Putin Gambit'. Or 'How to Lose a Chess Game in One Move'.
at least your post is grounded in reality. Ukraine is Little Russia -they are indeed basic brothers.
However NATO expansion and the US proxy war has turned Ukriane into a hostile power .
Zelensky craves more and more and we just give it to him regardless of the balance of power between Russia and NATO with Uk as a buffer state. that was even codified by the Budapest Memorandum

Putin will win the war, but I dont think he'll win the peace - but again if he splits it in at the Dnieper
it's possible. which is what the OP was saying
Dont believe anyone who says they know how this turns out
 
'Military Strategy'. Convincing Ukrainians that Russia is their Brother?
splitting Uk in 2 at the Dnieper would leave western Ukraine as a neutral or more probably a NATO proxy state
But Putin would hold the east and the capitol. it becomes a buffer state.
That's the military strategy. But it assumes the resultant eastern half could be "pacified"
And that is where the cookie will split or crumble ( at least this is the concept)
 
Back
Top