Do you think that we will all get it and either survive or die, or will we flatten the curve until a vax or great therapeutic is created?
Or is there a middle ground? I don't know.
Corona Virus Peak Watch Thread
- Thread starter PoliTalker
- Start date
Do you think that we will all get it and either survive or die, or will we flatten the curve until a vax or great therapeutic is created?
Or is there a middle ground? I don't know.
Yes. The beautiful thing with that is, the simple is true and the complex is true, both.
Everyone gets 38,000 new cases and 50,000 dead. And those more inclined can dig in deep and be right too. There is no inconsistency.
Anyone digging into data in order to paint a polyannaish vision is blowing smoke. And their target audience can't be deceived if they don't understand.
But everyone gets 50,000 dead and their place in that picture as it grows and as they walk around the world and observe.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Hello Micawber,
I totally think a segment of society will never get covid-19, and will continue to evade the disease until a vax is created. We must all strive to be in that segment. It's a matter of time. The race is on.
I totally think a segment of society will never get covid-19, and will continue to evade the disease until a vax is created. We must all strive to be in that segment. It's a matter of time. The race is on.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Hello Micawber,
Well that's the trap if we begin with an assumed premise and then attempt to fit the world around it.
Yeah, kind of hard to pretend numbers like that do not exist.
That's why I first post the raw numbers; and then post another comment about the changes from the previous day, a sort of wrap-up of the math, which I know can be sort of inconclusive in the raw form.
38,000 new cases.
Wow.
That was a remarkable day. It is hard to say we have passed a peak when we are setting new highs.
Well that's the trap if we begin with an assumed premise and then attempt to fit the world around it.
Yeah, kind of hard to pretend numbers like that do not exist.
That's why I first post the raw numbers; and then post another comment about the changes from the previous day, a sort of wrap-up of the math, which I know can be sort of inconclusive in the raw form.
38,000 new cases.
Wow.
That was a remarkable day. It is hard to say we have passed a peak when we are setting new highs.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Saturday
4-25
USA
Total Cases 960,651
New Cases +35,419
Total Deaths 54,256
New Deaths +2,065
Total Recovered 118,162
Active Cases 788,233
Serious, Critical 15,110
Tot Cases/1M pop 2,902
Deaths/1M pop 164
Total Tests 5,279,237
Tests/1M pop 15,949
4-25
USA
Total Cases 960,651
New Cases +35,419
Total Deaths 54,256
New Deaths +2,065
Total Recovered 118,162
Active Cases 788,233
Serious, Critical 15,110
Tot Cases/1M pop 2,902
Deaths/1M pop 164
Total Tests 5,279,237
Tests/1M pop 15,949
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
'Good news' is we only had around 2K American deaths today. (if you can call that good news)
Bad news is we had another big day for New Cases +35,419. This is unusual for a Saturday. We have seen reduced numbers on weekends in the past, for some reason.
Active cases continues to rise ..... 788,233. We need this figure to stop rising before we can call it a peak.
And look at the Serious or Critical figure of 15,110. That continues to rise. That is a new high for that metric. Not good.
We have not reached a peak in the USA.
The numbers continue to rise.
The total deaths in America of 54,256, combined with the fact that we have not reached a peak in the number of Active Cases suggests that we will go over 100,000 deaths just in the first wave. We are already over halfway to the 100,000 mark. A simple extrapolation, even if we reach a peak soon, and add the estimated figures after peaking, will take us over 100,000 by summer. And it appears unlikely that summer will stop it because it is thriving in Miami which is already hot, and has been for months as the numbers have grown there.
It is really tragic that this was blown off and denied by the president for far too long. Valuable time was wasted and now we are seeing the tragic cost of that.
Bad news is we had another big day for New Cases +35,419. This is unusual for a Saturday. We have seen reduced numbers on weekends in the past, for some reason.
Active cases continues to rise ..... 788,233. We need this figure to stop rising before we can call it a peak.
And look at the Serious or Critical figure of 15,110. That continues to rise. That is a new high for that metric. Not good.
We have not reached a peak in the USA.
The numbers continue to rise.
The total deaths in America of 54,256, combined with the fact that we have not reached a peak in the number of Active Cases suggests that we will go over 100,000 deaths just in the first wave. We are already over halfway to the 100,000 mark. A simple extrapolation, even if we reach a peak soon, and add the estimated figures after peaking, will take us over 100,000 by summer. And it appears unlikely that summer will stop it because it is thriving in Miami which is already hot, and has been for months as the numbers have grown there.
It is really tragic that this was blown off and denied by the president for far too long. Valuable time was wasted and now we are seeing the tragic cost of that.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Sunday
4-26
USA
Total Cases 987,160
New Cases +26,509
Total Deaths 55,413
New Deaths +1,157
Total Recovered 118,781
Active Cases 812,966
Serious, Critical 15,143
Tot Cases/1M pop 2,982
Deaths/1M pop 167
Total Tests 5,470,464
Tests/1M pop 16,527
4-26
USA
Total Cases 987,160
New Cases +26,509
Total Deaths 55,413
New Deaths +1,157
Total Recovered 118,781
Active Cases 812,966
Serious, Critical 15,143
Tot Cases/1M pop 2,982
Deaths/1M pop 167
Total Tests 5,470,464
Tests/1M pop 16,527
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Not so bad today!
A very welcome cut in new deaths today, only 1157. (that is good compared to what it has been.)
Also a nice big drop in the number of new cases to +26,509. Very good after a few very high new cases days.
We still have over 15K in serious or critical condition. That is a big concern.
The biggest concern is Active Cases at 812,966 is still rising.
Still no peak. We gotta see that number stop rising completely to get over the top. Not there yet.
The worst is still ahead of us.
Dr Birx said today Social Distancing will be going right into summer.
She's right. Miami has a lot of cases and it's very warm there. Any hope that this will go away when it gets warmer does not seem to be in the cards. We've got to keep up what we are doing. Munchin says he sees a big economic come back by September, but we don't know if that's his true belief or if he is just saying what DT wants him to. You can't make people go out and be in large groups if they don't feel safe doing so.
The prez doesn't really have as much of a team as he has a group of people who know they have to tell him what he wants to hear or they lose their job. What is really in place is a one man team with a bunch of human extensions of the one man. So far, that does not appear to have served the nation very well in fighting coronavirus. We wasted a lot of very valuable time and now we are still lacking the needed testing levels and equipment.
A very welcome cut in new deaths today, only 1157. (that is good compared to what it has been.)
Also a nice big drop in the number of new cases to +26,509. Very good after a few very high new cases days.
We still have over 15K in serious or critical condition. That is a big concern.
The biggest concern is Active Cases at 812,966 is still rising.
Still no peak. We gotta see that number stop rising completely to get over the top. Not there yet.
The worst is still ahead of us.
Dr Birx said today Social Distancing will be going right into summer.
She's right. Miami has a lot of cases and it's very warm there. Any hope that this will go away when it gets warmer does not seem to be in the cards. We've got to keep up what we are doing. Munchin says he sees a big economic come back by September, but we don't know if that's his true belief or if he is just saying what DT wants him to. You can't make people go out and be in large groups if they don't feel safe doing so.
The prez doesn't really have as much of a team as he has a group of people who know they have to tell him what he wants to hear or they lose their job. What is really in place is a one man team with a bunch of human extensions of the one man. So far, that does not appear to have served the nation very well in fighting coronavirus. We wasted a lot of very valuable time and now we are still lacking the needed testing levels and equipment.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Hello Micawber,
I was watching a show on the great WWII battle between the HMS Hood and the Bismark. Bismark got incredibly lucky and landed a shell in the ammo magazine of the Hood, which sank in less than 3 minutes, killing almost everyone aboard. Great Britain then sent everything they had after the Bismark, which at the time was the biggest, most powerful and modern warship anywhere. The English almost let the Bismark slip away and were reduced to sending old biplanes armed with torpedoes. Amazingly, the Bismark's anti aircraft guns were too modern for the relic biplanes. The AA guns were designed for planes attacking at a minimum of 150 mph, but the biplanes came in at a mere 80 mph. The Bismark kept targeting them and shooting, but all the shells exploded in front of the slow moving biplanes. That's how they managed to get one crucial torpedo hit which took out the Bismark's steering and set them up as sitting ducks until the British fleet could get there to finish the job.
What does any of this have to do with coronavirus?
During the wrap-up of the presentation they remarked that in a matter of a few days over 3000 sailors lost their lives between the two great ships.
As I sat there and received that information the first thing I thought was: 'Shoot. We are losing more than that to covid-19.'
I was watching history as we are making it.
I was watching a show on the great WWII battle between the HMS Hood and the Bismark. Bismark got incredibly lucky and landed a shell in the ammo magazine of the Hood, which sank in less than 3 minutes, killing almost everyone aboard. Great Britain then sent everything they had after the Bismark, which at the time was the biggest, most powerful and modern warship anywhere. The English almost let the Bismark slip away and were reduced to sending old biplanes armed with torpedoes. Amazingly, the Bismark's anti aircraft guns were too modern for the relic biplanes. The AA guns were designed for planes attacking at a minimum of 150 mph, but the biplanes came in at a mere 80 mph. The Bismark kept targeting them and shooting, but all the shells exploded in front of the slow moving biplanes. That's how they managed to get one crucial torpedo hit which took out the Bismark's steering and set them up as sitting ducks until the British fleet could get there to finish the job.
What does any of this have to do with coronavirus?
During the wrap-up of the presentation they remarked that in a matter of a few days over 3000 sailors lost their lives between the two great ships.
As I sat there and received that information the first thing I thought was: 'Shoot. We are losing more than that to covid-19.'
I was watching history as we are making it.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Monday
4-27
USA
Total Cases 1,010,356
New Cases +23,196
Total Deaths 56,797
New Deaths +1,384
Total Recovered 138,990
Active Cases 814,569
Serious, Critical 14,186
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,052
Deaths/1M pop 172
Total Tests 5,696,928
Tests/1M pop 17,211
4-27
USA
Total Cases 1,010,356
New Cases +23,196
Total Deaths 56,797
New Deaths +1,384
Total Recovered 138,990
Active Cases 814,569
Serious, Critical 14,186
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,052
Deaths/1M pop 172
Total Tests 5,696,928
Tests/1M pop 17,211
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Hey, look at this!
The Active Cases didn't go up very much since yesterday!
It went from 812,966 to 814,569.
Nice. That is a very good sign. If that keeps up it could mean we are finally getting close to the peak.
And we only had +1,384 New Deaths today. Another encouragingly lower figure.
And the serious or critical number dropped a little.
Very good!
Finally, some hope for a peak, at last.
Let's hope this trend continues...
The Active Cases didn't go up very much since yesterday!
It went from 812,966 to 814,569.
Nice. That is a very good sign. If that keeps up it could mean we are finally getting close to the peak.
And we only had +1,384 New Deaths today. Another encouragingly lower figure.
And the serious or critical number dropped a little.
Very good!
Finally, some hope for a peak, at last.
Let's hope this trend continues...
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Tuesday
4-28
USA
Total Cases 1,035,765
New Cases +25,409
Total Deaths 59,266
New Deaths +2,470
Total Recovered 142,238
Active Cases 834,261
Serious, Critical 15,298
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,129
Deaths/1M pop 179
Total Tests 5,919,847
Tests/1M pop 17,885
4-28
USA
Total Cases 1,035,765
New Cases +25,409
Total Deaths 59,266
New Deaths +2,470
Total Recovered 142,238
Active Cases 834,261
Serious, Critical 15,298
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,129
Deaths/1M pop 179
Total Tests 5,919,847
Tests/1M pop 17,885
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Well, yesterday's numbers were nice, but today was not so nice.
2470 Americans lost their lives today. We have gone above that 58K Vietnam threshold and continue to go up.
Active Cases took a big 20K jump up to 834,261 today.
And the number of serious or critical cases went back above the 15K mark.
As much as we wish yesterday was the start of a new easing of the rise, that has not been sustained into today.
We have not reached the elusive peak yet, and the worst appears to be yet to come.
Do not listen to the president. He wishes things were better than they are, he wants them to be better, but you just can't spin numbers. The numbers are what the numbers are. He thinks the worst is behind us but the numbers do not show that. The numbers continued to rise. He can spin with all the adjectives he wants, but there is a reason he does not talk about numbers. They don't look good.
Please continue to take care of yourselves, don't drop your guard, look out for yourself and others, we are in this for the long haul.
2470 Americans lost their lives today. We have gone above that 58K Vietnam threshold and continue to go up.
Active Cases took a big 20K jump up to 834,261 today.
And the number of serious or critical cases went back above the 15K mark.
As much as we wish yesterday was the start of a new easing of the rise, that has not been sustained into today.
We have not reached the elusive peak yet, and the worst appears to be yet to come.
Do not listen to the president. He wishes things were better than they are, he wants them to be better, but you just can't spin numbers. The numbers are what the numbers are. He thinks the worst is behind us but the numbers do not show that. The numbers continued to rise. He can spin with all the adjectives he wants, but there is a reason he does not talk about numbers. They don't look good.
Please continue to take care of yourselves, don't drop your guard, look out for yourself and others, we are in this for the long haul.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Wednesday
4-29
USA
Total Cases 1,064,194
New Cases +28,429
Total Deaths 61,656
New Deaths +2,390
Total Recovered 147,411
Active Cases 855,127
Serious, Critical 18,671
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,215
Deaths/1M pop 186
Total Tests 6,139,911
Tests/1M pop 18,549
4-29
USA
Total Cases 1,064,194
New Cases +28,429
Total Deaths 61,656
New Deaths +2,390
Total Recovered 147,411
Active Cases 855,127
Serious, Critical 18,671
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,215
Deaths/1M pop 186
Total Tests 6,139,911
Tests/1M pop 18,549
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Here is a graph of the Active Cases in the USA up to today.
Should be easy enough to see that the curve on this graph has not reached a peak:
Click to enlarge..
Should be easy enough to see that the curve on this graph has not reached a peak:
Click to enlarge..
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Thursday
4-30
USA
Total Cases 1,095,023
New Cases +30,829
Total Deaths 63,856
New Deaths +2,201
Total Recovered 152,324
Active Cases 878,843
Serious, Critical 15,226
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,308
Deaths/1M pop 193
Total Tests 6,391,887
Tests/1M pop 19,311
4-30
USA
Total Cases 1,095,023
New Cases +30,829
Total Deaths 63,856
New Deaths +2,201
Total Recovered 152,324
Active Cases 878,843
Serious, Critical 15,226
Tot Cases/1M pop 3,308
Deaths/1M pop 193
Total Tests 6,391,887
Tests/1M pop 19,311
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Looking for that peak.
We want this thing to peak out.
No peak yet.
And look at that Active Cases figure.
We are on our way to having a million Active Cases.
We want this thing to peak out.
No peak yet.
And look at that Active Cases figure.
We are on our way to having a million Active Cases.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Here's why I like math.
Math is math.
You can't spin the numbers.
The numbers are what the numbers are.
Math is like a no BS zone.
At the current rate of rise, since we have not reached the peak yet, extrapolating out, we will reach a million active cases of Covid-19 by May 10th.
I just performed an extrapolation of the current death rate which reveals that we will reach 100,000 deaths by May 20th.
A graph of the deaths in the USA from coronavirus Covid-19.
This would be the same pandemic that the president said would be miraculously going away, down from 15 cases down to close to zero.
Here's the death graph:
(Click to enlarge.)
Is there anybody to whom any part of this looks like a peak is behind us?
Math is math.
You can't spin the numbers.
The numbers are what the numbers are.
Math is like a no BS zone.
At the current rate of rise, since we have not reached the peak yet, extrapolating out, we will reach a million active cases of Covid-19 by May 10th.
I just performed an extrapolation of the current death rate which reveals that we will reach 100,000 deaths by May 20th.
A graph of the deaths in the USA from coronavirus Covid-19.
This would be the same pandemic that the president said would be miraculously going away, down from 15 cases down to close to zero.
Here's the death graph:
(Click to enlarge.)
Is there anybody to whom any part of this looks like a peak is behind us?