Corona Virus Peak Watch Thread

I made two mathematical extrapolations on May 1st.

One of them predicted that by May 10th, the USA would reach one million Active Cases.

That turned out to be correct. The figure was reached yesterday. Today is the 9th.

The other extrapolation predicted that the USA will reach 100,000 deaths by May 20th.

I stand by that one.

Here is the Trump death curve, which is not flattening:

View attachment 15232

(click to enlarge)

Does this curve LOOK like it's flattening???
Why did you cheer the economic loss to millions of Americans and their families caused by the virus from China that China failed to contain?
 
Hello Darth,


I guess you can delete the first part.

Unfortunately I was correct on May 1st when I said that we would reach a million Active Cases by May 10th.

We have already reached over 1 million Active Cases.

It happened yesterday and today is the 9th. It happened faster than I predicted.

Not the way I wanted to be wrong.
 
Looks like I might be wrong on the date we will reach 100,000 deaths.

I just ran the numbers again based on current data.

Looks to me like we are averaging about 1700 deaths per day.

11 days to the 20th.

1700 * 11 = 18,700

We are at 78,762 deaths.

78,762 + 18,700 = 97,462.

We would thankfully fall short of the 100,000 mark on May 20th.

But obviously it wouldn't take long after that to reach that figure. I hope so.

100,000 - 78,762 = 21,238 needed to reach the figure.

How many days would it take at 1700 deaths per day?

21,238 / 1700 = 12.5

Hopefully I am wrong about all of this, but if the numbers turn out to be accurate we would reach the 100,000 figure by May 23rd.

That is based on current data and the assumption that we are experiencing 1700 Americans dying each day of covid-19.

Darth will tell you nobody is dying of covid-19. A technicality, though, which is not very reassuring to the families who never got to even say goodbye to their departed loved ones.
 
Hello Darth,



I guess you can delete the first part.

Unfortunately I was correct on May 1st when I said that we would reach a million Active Cases by May 10th.

We have already reached over 1 million Active Cases.

It happened yesterday and today is the 9th. It happened faster than I predicted.

Not the way I wanted to be wrong.

Well, you survived being wrong before lol.

A time or two.
 
Hello Darth,

Well, you survived being wrong before lol.

A time or two.

There is not a human alive who has not been wrong at some point. Some of us understand that and accept it, and then there are people like the president who thinks he's perfect and never accepts being wrong.

And he has been tragically wrong about the corona virus.

'15 cases going to zero,' indeed.

'Magically go away in a few weeks,' yeah right.

His days of perpetuating this charade are numbered.

Many Americans have been fooled into defending him but most Americans are not fooled about how badly this has been handled.

He is the world's greatest con man but he has met his match in this life and death crisis.

The numbers don't lie.
 
The source of the virus from China is China. They lied about the source and their number of fatalities. They would not share data with our health professionals that might have mitigated their virus from China. They nailed shut the doors of those with the virus from China They did not stop flights out of China and the virus from China spread around the world.

China must be held accountable for the hundreds of thousands of deaths and the economic loss around the world.

Count on the far left loon apologists to defend China.

The source of our deaths is Trump. We have 1/3 rd of the cases and deaths on the planet. we are 4 percent of the population. Can you figure out that something went wrong? That something was Trump and his mishandling of the virus. Trump should be held accountable by the American voters.
 
Saturday

5-9

USA

Total Cases 1,347,309

New Cases +25,524

Total Deaths 80,037

New Deaths +1,422

Total Recovered 238,078

Active Cases 1,029,194

Serious, Critical 16,816

Tot Cases/1M pop 4,070

Deaths/1M pop 242

Total Tests 8,918,263

Tests/1M pop 26,943
 
This is the 'facing the reality of DT' thread.

80,000 dead Americans.

Projected to be 100,000 by the end of the month.

Probably well before.

We don't get many of the president's defenders commenting in this thread.

They don't seem to prefer facing reality.

Facing reality, and defending the 'stable genius,' are incongruent.
 
Hello Darth,



There is not a human alive who has not been wrong at some point. Some of us understand that and accept it, and then there are people like the president who thinks he's perfect and never accepts being wrong.

And he has been tragically wrong about the corona virus.

'15 cases going to zero,' indeed.

'Magically go away in a few weeks,' yeah right.

His days of perpetuating this charade are numbered.

Many Americans have been fooled into defending him but most Americans are not fooled about how badly this has been handled.

He is the world's greatest con man but he has met his match in this life and death crisis.

The numbers don't lie.

Models: wrong

WHO: wrong

CDC: wrong

Trump: right that we had plenty of ventilators

Trump: right to shut down immigration from China

House Democrats and especially the House *intelligence* committee: wrongly chasing the Ukraine phantom in December and January while China was lying and the virus was spreading in this country
 
Hello Darth,

Models: wrong

WHO: wrong

CDC: wrong

Trump: right that we had plenty of ventilators

Trump: right to shut down immigration from China

House Democrats and especially the House *intelligence* committee: wrongly chasing the Ukraine phantom in December and January while China was lying and the virus was spreading in this country

This is mistaken from the outset.

I created a model of my own, using publicly available data, on May 1st.

It showed that we would have over a million Active Cases by May 10th.

That model turned out to be correct.
 
Hello Darth,



This is mistaken from the outset.

I created a model of my own, using publicly available data, on May 1st.

It showed that we would have over a million Active Cases by May 10th.

That model turned out to be correct.

Don’t you mean a million positive tests lol?

Antibody studies *consistently* demonstrate that positive test case numbers are way less than the positive antibody numbers. IOW, the virus is a lot more prevalent in our population than positive test case numbers suggest.

This means two important things: one is that the COVID CFR is going to come in low—probably in the same neighborhood as the flu and perhaps even lower.

This also dovetails with the unusually high number of asymptomatic/mildly affected individuals who catch the virus. Moreover, that is confirmed in studies done by frontline workers [I’ve linked the study at least twice now] who claim the virus isn’t really killing that many people—it’s the immune response TO the virus that is causing some individuals to go critical and even die in some cases.

The Cytokine Storm is essentially the immune system attacking the body. So, severe COVID symptoms are actually symptoms of an immune system malfunction.

And they haven’t always been treated as such [I’m still not sure they are in all places] because the WHO/CDC guidelines excluded some common treatments in severe COVID patients. And this has certainly added to the total death count.

The second point is political: you have a strong presuppositional bias when it comes to Trump. IOW, you decide at the outset that Trump is guilty for all this, then you cherry pick your facts to support the supposition.

That is sloppy logic. And it’s why your so resistant to the idea the virus was almost certainly *established* in our population well before Trump or anyone else was going to significantly change the outcome.

It’s very likely further serum antibody studies will confirm exactly that.
 
History won't be kind to Trump on this.

The "downplaying campaign" in February hurt America in ways that we'll never be able to truly calculate. It's much more than "contained" and "15 down to zero." So much of that led to Fox, talk radio, twitter and the rest to take it a step or steps further, and so many Americans were convinced that this was nothing, or worse, a hoax.

And then there was the misinformation: hyping unproven drugs & treatments, over optimistic predictions for a vaccine timeframe, lysol.

Now, we find out that his admin buried detailed CDC advice. Combine that with taking funding away from WHO - for saying the SAME THING about China that Trump did in January - and Trump himself has set us so far behind the 8 ball on this whole thing.

It's a stunning failure of leadership. It's hard to imagine worse.
 
Hello Darth,

Don’t you mean a million positive tests lol?

Antibody studies *consistently* demonstrate that positive test case numbers are way less than the positive antibody numbers. IOW, the virus is a lot more prevalent in our population than positive test case numbers suggest.

This means two important things: one is that the COVID CFR is going to come in low—probably in the same neighborhood as the flu and perhaps even lower.

This also dovetails with the unusually high number of asymptomatic/mildly affected individuals who catch the virus. Moreover, that is confirmed in studies done by frontline workers [I’ve linked the study at least twice now] who claim the virus isn’t really killing that many people—it’s the immune response TO the virus that is causing some individuals to go critical and even die in some cases.

The Cytokine Storm is essentially the immune system attacking the body. So, severe COVID symptoms are actually symptoms of an immune system malfunction.

And they haven’t always been treated as such [I’m still not sure they are in all places] because the WHO/CDC guidelines excluded some common treatments in severe COVID patients. And this has certainly added to the total death count.

The second point is political: you have a strong presuppositional bias when it comes to Trump. IOW, you decide at the outset that Trump is guilty for all this, then you cherry pick your facts to support the supposition.

I think you have more political bias than I do. All of the president's supporters do. Here's why. Pretty much the whole rest of the world is against DT. Only the few in the USA who support him, fool themselves into believing him. And this is very strange because he has been shown to lie so frequently. For an individual to ignore all the lies, that individual has to have some pretty strong political bias.

That is sloppy logic. And it’s why your so resistant to the idea the virus was almost certainly *established* in our population well before Trump or anyone else was going to significantly change the outcome.

It’s very likely further serum antibody studies will confirm exactly that.

Antibody tests will almost certainly reveal much more spread of the disease than is currently confirmed. But the conclusion you are hoping to draw from that will be a view only shared by the president's supporters, for political reasons.
 
The source of the virus from China is China. They lied about the source and their number of fatalities. They would not share data with our health professionals that might have mitigated their virus from China. They nailed shut the doors of those with the virus from China They did not stop flights out of China and the virus from China spread around the world.

China must be held accountable for the hundreds of thousands of deaths and the economic loss around the world.

Count on the far left loon apologists to defend China and falsely blame it on our great president whose closure of flights from China saved countless lives.

The president is following the advice of the health professionals and the states are opening their economies following the guidelines.
 
Hello Darth,
I think you have more political bias than I do. All of the president's supporters do. Here's why. Pretty much the whole rest of the world is against DT. Only the few in the USA who support him, fool themselves into believing him. And this is very strange because he has been shown to lie so frequently. For an individual to ignore all the lies, that individual has to have some pretty strong political bias.

Antibody tests will almost certainly reveal much more spread of the disease than is currently confirmed. But the conclusion you are hoping to draw from that will be a view only shared by the president's supporters, for political reasons.

The conclusion will be determined by simple math lol.

Not that math has ever stood in the way of political agendas. You said it yourself: the virus has spread more than they assumed at the outset. Unless they cheat at math the mortality rate is going to come in low. Well, one way of doing it is to cheat at counting deaths.

It’s becoming clear that the COVID virus is fairly benign—it’s the way the immune system *in some people* reacts to the virus. The virus doesn’t target the heart or vascular system in critical patients—their own immune systems are doing that.
 
Don’t you mean a million positive tests lol?

Antibody studies *consistently* demonstrate that positive test case numbers are way less than the positive antibody numbers. IOW, the virus is a lot more prevalent in our population than positive test case numbers suggest.

This means two important things: one is that the COVID CFR is going to come in low—probably in the same neighborhood as the flu and perhaps even lower.

This also dovetails with the unusually high number of asymptomatic/mildly affected individuals who catch the virus. Moreover, that is confirmed in studies done by frontline workers [I’ve linked the study at least twice now] who claim the virus isn’t really killing that many people—it’s the immune response TO the virus that is causing some individuals to go critical and even die in some cases.

The Cytokine Storm is essentially the immune system attacking the body. So, severe COVID symptoms are actually symptoms of an immune system malfunction.

And they haven’t always been treated as such [I’m still not sure they are in all places] because the WHO/CDC guidelines excluded some common treatments in severe COVID patients. And this has certainly added to the total death count.

The second point is political: you have a strong presuppositional bias when it comes to Trump. IOW, you decide at the outset that Trump is guilty for all this, then you cherry pick your facts to support the supposition.

That is sloppy logic. And it’s why your so resistant to the idea the virus was almost certainly *established* in our population well before Trump or anyone else was going to significantly change the outcome.

It’s very likely further serum antibody studies will confirm exactly that.

EnchantingExemplaryHoverfly-size_restricted.gif
 
Hello Darth,

The conclusion will be determined by simple math lol..

This conclusion?

... your [sic] so resistant to the idea the virus was almost certainly *established* in our population well before Trump or anyone else was going to significantly change the outcome.

It’s very likely further serum antibody studies will confirm exactly that.

No, the math won't show that DT could not have done a better job.

But nice try, anyway.

What it will show is the importance of taking more effective measures far sooner.

Since he didn't do that he takes the heat for dropping the ball and getting so many Americans killed.

He was warned at least a dozen times in intelligence briefings in January that this could be very bad. He ignore all of that. People died, he made the wrong choice and it cost lives. He is not wriggling out of that no matter how you try to spin it, or whatever hoops you make for yourself to jump through, we are not jumping through them. We see the facts.
 
Sunday

5-10

USA

Total Cases 1,367,638

New Cases +20,329

Total Deaths 80,787

New Deaths +750

Total Recovered 256,336

Active Cases 1,030,515

Serious, Critical 16,514

Tot Cases/1M pop 4,132

Deaths/1M pop 244

Total Tests 9,444,525

Tests/1M pop 28,533
 
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