Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
It appears that flattening the curve is going to settle out to about 1000/day. 30,000/month and, at that rate, 180,000 by election day. Should be interesting.
Death by Corona numbers explode to 61
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It appears that flattening the curve is going to settle out to about 1000/day. 30,000/month and, at that rate, 180,000 by election day. Should be interesting.
BartenderElite
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Some threads prosper with time. Others simply do not age well.
I try to avoid making mathematical and scientific predictions outside my realm of expertise.
Undoutedly, the amount of death will depend on how aggressively and consistently we implement preventative measures, testing, and quarantines
Dutch Uncle
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Then think about it. Obviously the world is full of grays but you just identified too extremes: we do nothing or we do everything humanely possible regardless of cost in money and resources. Doing nothing is easy; calculate the mortality rate against the total population. The other end is nobody dies of COVID-19.
This isn't Smallpox versus the Indians so we know that the actual mortality rate will be mitigated by modern US medicine. We know it's impossible to save everyone. Let's say we save half from dying of COVID. Tough call because, as the link below notes, there is a range of rates. Using 1% as an average, then it become 0.5% with unlimited modern medicine. A guesstimate of only 1.64M dead. "Uh, depending on the breaks."
https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html
A recent study of COVID-19 cases in the United States estimated a mortality rate of 10% to 27% for those ages 85 and over, 3% to 11% for those ages 65 to 84, 1% to 3% for those ages 55 to 64 and less than 1% for those ages 20 to 54.
Dutch Uncle
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In half the time of the flu.
Mason Michaels
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Today was most deaths so far,and Trump and his idiot supporters are ready for business as usual!
Dutch Uncle
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Meh. School of hard knocks. Some people have to learn the hard way. I fine with that.
WITH isolation.
Dutch Uncle
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True, but I'm not sure how far back those go. The incubation period is so long for this that it really hard to judge what the US infection map will look like in 2-4 weeks...without massive testing which we don't have and won't have for months. Looks like it's just going to be wait and see for most of the summer.
Mason Michaels
Verified User
But some of these fools will infect innocent people!
Dutch Uncle
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Life goes on. We risk our lives every time we get on the highways with a bunch of fucking morons driving at 70MPH. Over 30,000 Americans die each year, about half alcohol related. Is it a major concern? Nope. Nobody gives a shit. "Price of doing business".
The Democratic Hoax has resulted in 33,000 deaths in 14 days.
I was told by Trump supporters this thing was no worse than the common cold....has the common cold ever killed 33,000 Americans in 14 days?
April 22
USA Coronavirus Cases:
846,203
Deaths:
47,520
In the one month since the thread author was chuckling about only 61 deaths, nearly 50,000 have died.
About 35,000 have died in the last 14 days
BartenderElite
Verified User
There isn't really a good way to spin the OP at this point. Though I've seen him try - w/ the ol' "well, my # is still closer to reality than the 2 million #"....
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Agreed. It's not rocket science; it's just basic medical science that anyone with an IQ of 100+ and a HS education or higher should have been able to both understand and foresee the consequences. The RW nutjobs have been touting the "deaths by flu" number of 62,000. Now it appears we'll go over that number by Cinco de Mayo.
I'm just an average guy and I get it. From last March:
Trump weaseled out of the rallies after telling everyone for weeks that it's nothing worse than the flu and that the Democrats were making too big of a deal about it.
I think we're in for at least six more weeks of it; a first, second and third week due to the 14-day max incubation period, but, yes, it could be over by the 4th of July.
OTOH, we might have something to celebrate on Cinco de Mayo! Maybe even Easter!
In the one and a half months since the thread author was chuckling about only 61 deaths, over 65,000 have died
May 2
USA Coronavirus Cases:
1,132,038
Deaths:
65,783
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