US economy is in shambles

Q2 2026 projections:



Based on preliminary data, the US economy showed resilience in early 2026, with an estimated 2.0% annual growth rate in the first quarter. The official, advance estimate for Q2 2026 GDP is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 30, 2026, with trading markets setting expectations around that date. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
  • Q1 2026 Context: The 2.0% Q1 growth was a sharp rebound from a 0.5% growth rate in Q4 2025, driven by increased business investment and government spending.
  • Outlook: Growth in early 2026 was supported by a resilient economy, though some forecasts suggested inflation, partially linked to international tensions, could affect consumer spending throughout the year.
  • Projections: Reports have highlighted a potential shift toward reliance on investment and government spending for growth, with annual projections suggesting a potential 2.4% growth for the full year 2026



Meanwhile , as of 5/2/2026, 1 US dollar = 1,830,000 Iranian rials..


:rofl2:
 

The U.S.-Iran war is coming for your credit score and mortgage application​



The U.S.-Iran war is causing more lenders to scrutinize creditworthiness, with FICO scores that recently would have been approved for loans including autos and mortgages now being moved to the rejection bin.

Personal finance experts say military conflict makes many lenders more defensive and right now, even if you can’t see it, they are tightening standards internally.
 

Stagflation risks stacking up as Trump war enters third month​



Financial markets are finding it harder to look past the rising economic costs of the Iran war as the continued US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prolongs the world's biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies.

Two months into the conflict, the global economy ‌faces a toxic mix of slowing growth and high inflation - stagflation.

Oil remains the key barometer. High energy prices threaten growth by squeezing consumers and companies while fuelling inflation.

Citi says it's considering an adverse scenario in which Brent climbs to $120 through year-end, cutting global growth to between 1.5% and 2% and lifting headline inflation to nearly 5%.

Gas prices have also risen. Farmers face a giant surge in fertilizer prices, while many countries have warned of ‌jet fuel shortages.

Despite sharply higher borrowing costs, the ⁠shock has yet to show up clearly in overall financial conditions.

Economist Mohit Kumar said "Inflation will still be higher in the US."

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said this week the worst-case scenario of stagflation remained.
 
Walt said:
I do have to say that my call options on BNO and GUSH have been doing very well. It is a good time to be investing in higher oil prices.

I do feel a little guilty about doing so while oil prices push the USA into a recession, but it is not like I caused trump to hand over the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. Don't blame me, I did not vote for him.


Right now, gasoline prices are going up by 2.1% a day. If that continues for a week, it wipes out any model claiming 2.8% growth.

If trump really works this, he might be able to get another month out of the strategic reserves(trump is not known for working, so maybe not). Even if he opens the Strait of Hormuz today, that puts oil above $130 for the month of June. If it takes another month from today to open the Strait of Hormuz, that is two months of $130 oil, and almost certainly a recession. That would be negative GDP growth for either Q2 or Q3, more likely Q3, but with flat growth in Q2.

We are all making predictions, so will have to wait and see.


Maybe the young adults you know are lazy. The ones I know all do income stacking. They will be an engineer, and also walk dogs for money. They will be a bartender, and also rent out sound equipment. They will be in high school, and also have an incorporated patio/shed building business.

The Millennials, Generation Z's, and the leading edge of the Generation Alphas I know are all harder working, but not as focused as previous generations. Then again, I do not know anyone in Gardner's family.
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The Dow is at 49,499.27 and the Rial is worth 1,850,000 Rials to one dollar.

:magagrin:
 

Voters will judge Trump on the economy​


Trump predicted the US-Israeli war on Iran would last no longer than six weeks.

It has now entered its third month.

The conflict has caused a global energy shock on a par with the oil crises of the 1970s, driving up prices of everything from fuel to groceries.

November's elections are on a knife edge, and the success of Trump's Republican party will depend largely on the now familiar political line: "It's the economy, stupid."

But while headline growth figures are positive, Americans are much more likely to vote based on the cost of living.

Trump's strikes on Iran, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have driven oil prices up, with a barrel of Brent crude, a major oil benchmark, hitting a four-year high of $126 on Thursday. It has since fallen back to $111 but it was trading at around $73 before the war broke out at the end of February.

This led to Americans paying $4.30 (£3.17) for a gallon of fuel by the end of April, according to American Automobile Association data, compared with less than $3 in February.

That contributed to a sharp jump in inflation, with March's reading for average annual price increases coming in at 3.3%, a significant uptick from February's 2.4%.

The impact of the Iran war, in particular March's inflation figures, dashed any hope of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The central bank kept its base rate, which affects mortgage and other borrowing costs for Americans, at the 3.5% to 3.75% level on Wednesday. Before the war, economists had expected a series of interest rate cuts.

Since US strikes on Iran began, the average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage has risen from 5.98% to 6.3%, according to data from Freddie Mac.

Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, has said higher oil prices and expectations the US will maintain its blockade of OPEC for the long haul, could see rate cuts delayed until 2027.

With the Republicans on course to lose control of the House and at risk of losing the Senate, November's elections will depend massively on the state of the economy by the time voters head to the polls.

While headline GDP growth and stock markets rallying will offer some comfort to Republican strategists, the spiralling cost of living will continue to be a cause for concern.


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Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said:

Top economist says a US recession and a deep stock-market plunge are likely by year-end​



Jennifer Sor
Sat, May 2, 2026 at 1:20 PM GMT+4
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"Top economist" :laugh:






Current U.S. GDP (Latest Data)​

As of the most recent advance estimate, U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026 (January–March), up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis. This growth was driven by increases in investment, exports, consumer spending, and government spending, with imports also rising Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Nominal GDP​

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the nominal GDP for the United States in 2026 is about $32.38 trillion USD Worldometer. The IMF projects GDP growth at 2.3% for 2026 Worldometer.

Real GDP (Inflation-Adjusted)​

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports that real GDP in Q1 2026 was $24.2 trillion, up 2.7% from Q1 2025 USAFacts. This figure is adjusted for inflation (chained 2017 dollars) and is the standard measure for comparing economic output over time.

GDP per Capita​

IMF estimates GDP per capita in 2026 at $94,430, up from $89,991 in 2025 Worldometer. This reflects both nominal growth and population growth.







Meanwhile: 1 US dollar = 1,800,000+ Iranian rials.

Whose "economy is in shambles" again?



:ROFLMAO:
 
Grokmaster said:
"Top economist" :laugh:






Current U.S. GDP (Latest Data)​

As of the most recent advance estimate, U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026 (January–March), up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis. This growth was driven by increases in investment, exports, consumer spending, and government spending, with imports also rising Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Nominal GDP​

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the nominal GDP for the United States in 2026 is about $32.38 trillion USD Worldometer. The IMF projects GDP growth at 2.3% for 2026 Worldometer.

Real GDP (Inflation-Adjusted)​

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports that real GDP in Q1 2026 was $24.2 trillion, up 2.7% from Q1 2025 USAFacts. This figure is adjusted for inflation (chained 2017 dollars) and is the standard measure for comparing economic output over time.

GDP per Capita​

IMF estimates GDP per capita in 2026 at $94,430, up from $89,991 in 2025 Worldometer. This reflects both nominal growth and population growth.







Meanwhile: 1 US dollar = 1,800,000+ Iranian rials.

Whose "economy is in shambles" again?



:ROFLMAO:
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Gary Shilling is a renowned forecaster who is Merrill Lynch's first chief economist.
 
Walt said:
So you are too lazy to dig a hole yourself.
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Like ultra, I owned a John Deere 410D backhoe. That thing could dig what it would take 40 laborers with shovels and wheelbarrows to do. I could easily dig and move 20 to 30 cu yards in an hour with it. Throw in another 20 laborers if the ground is hard and needs to be broken up with a pick first.

Only idiots try to move large quantities of soil, sand, rock, or gravel by hand.
 
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