Here resides my official 2020 Presidential Prediction. Now of course, this prediction is made with all available information known today and can change as events change.
But, as I sit here today, President Trump will be re-elected President of the United States
His Electoral College victory will be 356-182
He will win 37 states compared to the 30 he won in 2016.
He will win all but the following states (easier to list the states he won't win): CA, WA, OR, IL, NY, NJ, VT, DE, MD, RI, CT, MA, HI
Yes, I have looked at all of the "national" polls and I have determined that they are all garbage.
1) They all over sample democrats by 8-10 points
2) Still doing registered voter models
I am instead looking at fundamentals on the ground
1) Massive displays of Trump support all over the country including Trump rally's in Beverly freaking Hills CA
2) Democrats all over the country have gone insane from lockdowns to allowing BLMTIFA to run amok
3) Trump boat rallies spontaneously occurring
4) Trump is still packing them in at any rally he does
5) Biden can't draw a few hundred people at any campaign event. He can't even draw them online
6) America sees that Biden is in severe cognitive decline
7) America will vote against the democrat media industrial complex
8) Even in polls that are poorly done, Trump consistently gets >20% of approval from black voters. I believe that is going to translate into at least 15% of the black vote
9) Biden is underperforming with hispanics (particularly in Florida) and Trump is over performing with hispanics. Trump is going to do better with hispanics than he did in 2016
10) Biden is playing defense right now. Making trips to PA, Las Vegas and Miami this late in the campaign is not offensive campaigning. It is playing defense. Campaigns up by double digits are not playing defense
11) 56% of Americans think they are better off today than they did four years ago
12) When asked who they thought would win the race, 56% said Trump
As I said, all of this can change in the blink of an eye and if I think it warrants a change, I will make that change accordingly. One area of weakness that has been pretty consistent since the Wu Flu has been the elderly vote.
I also believe there is a high likely hood of Republicans keeping the Senate and even taking back the House of Representatives, but not as confident on the latter yet. I haven't really looked at individual races. There are two races I am watching this year
1) James Senate race in Michigan. I think he can flip it. I have sent him money
2) Kim Klacik house race in Maryland. Keep an eye on her. Not sure if she can flip that race, but she is an up and coming star in the Republican Party. If she does win that race this year then look out. Republicans are going to run the table.
