Trumpkin* predictions!

gfm7175 said:
I still hold to my gut feeling that Trump will win with at least 300 electoral votes...

What I'm more concerned about is the fact that Republicans have a much smaller chance to win back the House, and might not even hold onto the Senate, and if Democrats get both the House and the Senate, then it's goodbye Trump (as they will impeach him for being hated by them and find him guilty of being the object of their hate)...
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10/13/20
 
Teflon Don said:
Here resides my official 2020 Presidential Prediction. Now of course, this prediction is made with all available information known today and can change as events change.

But, as I sit here today, President Trump will be re-elected President of the United States

His Electoral College victory will be 356-182

He will win 37 states compared to the 30 he won in 2016.

He will win all but the following states (easier to list the states he won't win): CA, WA, OR, IL, NY, NJ, VT, DE, MD, RI, CT, MA, HI

Yes, I have looked at all of the "national" polls and I have determined that they are all garbage.

1) They all over sample democrats by 8-10 points
2) Still doing registered voter models

I am instead looking at fundamentals on the ground

1) Massive displays of Trump support all over the country including Trump rally's in Beverly freaking Hills CA
2) Democrats all over the country have gone insane from lockdowns to allowing BLMTIFA to run amok
3) Trump boat rallies spontaneously occurring
4) Trump is still packing them in at any rally he does
5) Biden can't draw a few hundred people at any campaign event. He can't even draw them online
6) America sees that Biden is in severe cognitive decline
7) America will vote against the democrat media industrial complex
8) Even in polls that are poorly done, Trump consistently gets >20% of approval from black voters. I believe that is going to translate into at least 15% of the black vote
9) Biden is underperforming with hispanics (particularly in Florida) and Trump is over performing with hispanics. Trump is going to do better with hispanics than he did in 2016
10) Biden is playing defense right now. Making trips to PA, Las Vegas and Miami this late in the campaign is not offensive campaigning. It is playing defense. Campaigns up by double digits are not playing defense
11) 56% of Americans think they are better off today than they did four years ago
12) When asked who they thought would win the race, 56% said Trump


As I said, all of this can change in the blink of an eye and if I think it warrants a change, I will make that change accordingly. One area of weakness that has been pretty consistent since the Wu Flu has been the elderly vote.

I also believe there is a high likely hood of Republicans keeping the Senate and even taking back the House of Representatives, but not as confident on the latter yet. I haven't really looked at individual races. There are two races I am watching this year

1) James Senate race in Michigan. I think he can flip it. I have sent him money
2) Kim Klacik house race in Maryland. Keep an eye on her. Not sure if she can flip that race, but she is an up and coming star in the Republican Party. If she does win that race this year then look out. Republicans are going to run the table.
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10/13/20
 
Jarod said:
10/13/20
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You are such a dumb ass.

Why do you think you need to post it here? I asked Grind to make it a sticky for all to see you dumb fuck.

You are really one of the dumbest mother fuckers on this forum.

This is where you say "well, if Trump loses you will ask Grind to pull it down".

I can assure you I won't. But, when Biden loses you will most assuredly say "I didn't really support Biden". Just like you did with Clinton. Remember?
 
Jarod said:
10/13/20
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Looks like Damo gave you a little bitch slap in APP.

For the record, I have no idea what you posted. I didn't see it. So either Damo saw it first or someone else reported it. Clearly if Damo edited your post you were not on topic.

The rules in APP are very simple. You clearly can't handle it there
 
the left will be disappointed in is the YUTE vote. They just aren’t going to turn out for Sleepy Joe. They are notoriously the least reliable voting bloc and are over represented in all of the polling

The YUTES are just not enthralled with Sleepy Joe

Also I have watched Trumps recent rallies. He shows no ill effects from Wu Flu and is lighting it up. Biden on the other hand is trying to keep a busier schedule but it is definitely taking a toll. These are beyond usual gaffes that he is making.

Anyone who can’t see he is in mental decline is not paying attention
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10/15/20
 
Teflon Don said:
I really can't wait for November 3rd to get here.
I think the momentum is turning in the President's favor. It really does seem like 2016 all over again. The press is pushing bogus polls with wild leads for the democrat. They are pushing stories about how "republicans are distancing themselves from Trump".

I have watched the Trump rallies and there are numerous Republicans right there with him. I don't see anyone "distancing" themselves from him. What I don't see is Obama out on the stump for his former VP. I don't see Hillary out campaigning for Biden. I don't see Bill Clinton out campaigning for Biden.

This Burisma story is about to crack wide open. Maybe the FBI and Bill Barr will try to deep six the truth from coming out, but it will come out.
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10-15-20
 
volsrock said:
Polls Are Biased: Trump Will Again Deliver A Stunning Upset

The best tool we have to determine the outcome of elections is polls. Each poll has its own bias and we can get rid of some of the bias in individual polls by combining the results of each individual poll in one giant poll. Fivethirtyeight is a website that does this for us. Its method isn't fool proof though. We can get rid of some of the bias, but not all of it.

Right before the 2016 presidential election, on November 7th, Fivethirtyeight estimated that Hillary Clinton had a 67% chance of winning the election. Yet, Donald Trump crushed Hillary. There are several reasons why this happened. I am not going to waste your time to discuss these. The most important factor was that voters didn't reveal their true intentions when asked by pollsters. As a result, polls failed to predict the outcome of the 2016 elections. Take a look at this screenshot of Fivethirtyeight's website from November 7, 2016 (the day before the 2016 election): ...


https://www.yahoo.com/news/polls-biased-trump-again-deliver-195322946.html

:magagrin:
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10/18/20
 
gfm7175 said:
That's quite close to my prediction. While I won't officially say that it's "final", since it's not the night before election day yet, this is where I have been at for a while now, and where I am still at at this very moment in time... Trump wins 326-212... I also still stand by my previous declarations that Trump is going to win with at least 300 electoral votes...

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/nGrKw
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10/22/20
 
Biden's Bagman said:
So will you ask Rana to delete this thread for you if Trump wins?

Or will you bend the knee to everyone you quoted in this thread?

Or will you pretend it never happened?
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I wont, never have, asked to have a thread deleted. I dont ban people. If that occured, I would congratulate those who were correct.
 
Trump tried to duplicate the Comey effect by sending Ratcliffe out to make a really crappy announcement He was really stupid in that one. Trump sees 2016 as a blueprint. This showed no imagination, Comey helped me last time, it will work again. I wonder if Ratcliffe remembers what Trump did to Comey after his presser.
We all know Russia is interfering for Trump. Trump wanted Iran included. He has plans for them next year.
 
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