The Economist: U.S. Facing 'Perfect Storm' for 2008-Like Housing Crisis

Geeko Sportivo said:
I am not sure where any of us older American Baby Boomers would be right now, had the government not took charge and created THE FHA and helped build Post-War affordable homes and communities.

I know I was raised in such low income housing and I bet you lived in low-income housing when you grew up as well!

You want people to be able to afford housing don't you?
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It ain't going to be built by the federal gov't, I'll tell you that. Housing is largely a state and local issue. We you see new high rises going up in San Francisco they aren't being built by the federal gov't. When you see new communities being built in DFW they aren't being built by the federal gov't. The federal gov't role in housing is a small one. Housing is one of the most important issues facing this country yet when was the last time it was brought up in a Presidential debate? It doesn't get brought up because its a state and local issue.

But if housing is important to you come to California and feel free to lecture your fellow liberals over their NIMBYism or support a YIMBY group.
 
cawacko said:
It ain't going to be built by the federal gov't, I'll tell you that. Housing is largely a state and local issue. We you see new high rises going up in San Francisco they aren't being built by the federal gov't. When you see new communities being built in DFW they aren't being built by the federal gov't. The federal gov't role in housing is a small one. Housing is one of the most important issues facing this country yet when was the last time it was brought up in a Presidential debate? It doesn't get brought up because its a state and local issue.

But if housing is important to you come to California and feel free to lecture your fellow liberals over their NIMBYism or support a YIMBY group.
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When I was a kid, we lived in Palm Springs. I still have relatives there.

But we did move to Texas before I started school. California is always a nice place for me to visit- BUT I KNOW DAMN WELL THAT I CAN'T AFFORD TO LIVE THERE.

Here is the deal, when States and their local communities fail to build Low-Income housing- the federal government has to step in to do whatever they can do.
 
Geeko Sportivo said:
When I was a kid, we lived in Palm Springs. I still have relatives there.

But we did move to Texas before I started school. California is always a nice place for me to visit- BUT I KNOW DAMN WELL THAT I CAN'T AFFORD TO LIVE THERE.

Here is the deal, when States and their local communities fail to build Low-Income housing- the federal government has to step in to do whatever they can do.
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Palm Springs is great (except for the summers). A big part of the reason California is so unaffordable is we don't build housing. And we've had a housing shortage for well over three decades and the federal gov't is not stepping in to fix it so they are not the answer. The answer is to elect politicians in California who support new development. Of course a politician might say I can't get elected holding that position due to all the NIMBYs in the state. NIMBYism is the ultimate Fvck You I've Got Mine attitude and it's like a religion in California.
 
cawacko said:
Palm Springs is great (except for the summers). A big part of the reason California is so unaffordable is we don't build housing. And we've had a housing shortage for well over three decades and the federal gov't is not stepping in to fix it so they are not the answer. The answer is to elect politicians in California who support new development. Of course a politician might say I can't get elected holding that position due to all the NIMBYs in the state. NIMBYism is the ultimate Fvck You I've Got Mine attitude and it's like a religion in California.
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We have the same "I got mine- Fuck You" attitudes here in Texas too.

We also have our share of NIMBY'S!
 
cawacko said:
I certainly can't predict the future but we had like a 33% drop in housing prices during the Great Recession. The fundamentals are not near the same today. I just don't see it.
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Larry Summers is saying that inflation, in the current economy, means that too many people are working and spending money and since supply cannot keep up with demand, prices are rising. So to slow demand, by reducing their purchasing power, they lose their jobs. The unemployment benefits they receive are a fraction of what their salary was; so without savings, you will consume less and as such demand will slow.

I can't help thinking that a modern equivalent to Paul Volcker is needed to drive inflation out of the system.
“Paul Volcker was an inspiration to me and to everyone in the Federal Reserve,” said Janet Yellen, Fed chair under Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. “He embodied the values we hold most dear: devotion to public service, the courage to do the right thing, even when it’s immensely unpopular, a commitment to strong and effective regulation of the banking system and the highest ethical standards. We have Paul Volcker to thank for taming inflation and ushering in a long period of macroeconomic stability.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/09/pau...d-chairman-who-beat-inflation-dies-at-92.html
 
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Primavera said:
Larry Summers is saying is that inflation, in our current economy, means that too many people are working and spending money and since supply cannot keep up with demand, prices are rising. So to slow demand, by reducing their purchasing power, they lose their jobs. And as we know all too well, the unemployment benefits they receive are a fraction of what their salary was; without savings, you will consume less and as such demand will slow. I can't help thinking that a modern equivalent to Paul Volcker is needed to drive inflation out of the system.
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I’m not saying there can’t be or won’t be a drop in housing prices, I’m saying they’ll be nothing like a 25% drop. (I attempted to lay out in another post more details for that belief.)
 
I am beginning to wonder if Primavera's first language is English. He made some very basic mistakes here.

Primavera said:
The Economist: U.S. Facing 'Perfect Storm' for 2008-Like Housing Crisis
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I am pretty good about reading The Economist, and it has never said anything like that. It is very careful in its predictions, and would not make wild predictions like that.

Primavera said:
newsweek.com
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Why not link economist.com?

U.S. Facing 'Perfect Storm' for 2008-Like Housing Crisis: Economist
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So Newsweek has no reference to The Economist, but merely an economist. The Economist is a magazine, an economist is someone who says they study economics.

Jose Torres, a senior economist for Interactive Brokers
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Never heard of him, but looked him up. He does not have a PHD, does have a Masters degree in 2017 from Western Texas, and now has 5 years experience. I can see why Primavera decided to reattribute this to The Economist.

Primavera said:
A housing crash could have far-reaching impact on millions of Americans
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The Economist has pointed out that recent mortgages have been to people with very good credit ratings. The loan industry has been very conservative lately. Beyond that, huge numbers of mortgages are locked into 30 year 4% mortgages, with interest rates well above 4%. That means the value of their payments is going down. I wish I had not paid off my mortgage.

The real problem here is the difficulty selling new houses. That is a problem for the construction industry, but hardly a "perfect storm."
 
Primavera said:
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I think the same will happen in the UK and Europe as well.
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Housing (with mortgages) is not as important to the UK and European economies. It would be nearly unheard of to get a 30 year fixed mortgage anywhere outside the USA.
 
Walt said:
I am beginning to wonder if Primavera's first language is English. He made some very basic mistakes here.



I am pretty good about reading The Economist, and it has never said anything like that. It is very careful in its predictions, and would not make wild predictions like that.



Why not link economist.com?



So Newsweek has no reference to The Economist, but merely an economist. The Economist is a magazine, an economist is someone who says they study economics.



Never heard of him, but looked him up. He does not have a PHD, does have a Masters degree in 2017 from Western Texas, and now has 5 years experience. I can see why Primavera decided to reattribute this to The Economist.



The Economist has pointed out that recent mortgages have been to people with very good credit ratings. The loan industry has been very conservative lately. Beyond that, huge numbers of mortgages are locked into 30 year 4% mortgages, with interest rates well above 4%. That means the value of their payments is going down. I wish I had not paid off my mortgage.

The real problem here is the difficulty selling new houses. That is a problem for the construction industry, but hardly a "perfect storm."
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An economist is not "The Economist." Another troll thread.
 
moon said:
Interest rate hikes will make mortgage payments impossible for many.
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It literally does not work that way, at least not in the USA. In the USA, a mortgage would commonly be for 30 years, and at a fixed rate. That means if interest rates go up, it does not effect the mortgage.

If you want a new mortgage, and payments are impossible, they will not give you a mortgage.

What it all does mean is that more people are locked into either owning a house, or not owning a house. And also that more people are locked into a specific place. That is not great for the economy.
 
cawacko said:
I'm not suggesting prices won't drop.
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Or maybe values will drop. If we have 7.2% inflation for a decade, and housing prices stay the same, then housing values have been cut in half... But also the value of the mortgage payments have been cut in half.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
hammering landlords and eliminating single family housing zoning
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Eliminating single family housing zoning would be the best thing that could ever happen to landlords. It would open up a huge part of the market for them. It is as far from hammering them as possible.

America has hammered landlords for 70 years, because of a belief that owning a house was a social good. There is a real question about that.
 
Walt said:
I am beginning to wonder if Primavera's first language is English. He made some very basic mistakes here.



I am pretty good about reading The Economist, and it has never said anything like that. It is very careful in its predictions, and would not make wild predictions like that.



Why not link economist.com?



So Newsweek has no reference to The Economist, but merely an economist. The Economist is a magazine, an economist is someone who says they study economics.



Never heard of him, but looked him up. He does not have a PHD, does have a Masters degree in 2017 from Western Texas, and now has 5 years experience. I can see why Primavera decided to reattribute this to The Economist.



The Economist has pointed out that recent mortgages have been to people with very good credit ratings. The loan industry has been very conservative lately. Beyond that, huge numbers of mortgages are locked into 30 year 4% mortgages, with interest rates well above 4%. That means the value of their payments is going down. I wish I had not paid off my mortgage.

The real problem here is the difficulty selling new houses. That is a problem for the construction industry, but hardly a "perfect storm."
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I made a mistake Salty, but it was too late to change the subject title. You've made many mistakes but I've never ever seen you even once concede or apologise, that's how arrogant you are.
 
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Into the Night said:
The 2008 crash was preceded by an insane level of speculation in the housing market.
Not true today.
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Oh my, Night actually made a good point. That might be the first time I ever saw that.

There was a bit of speculation, but only a little, and there was not much wild loans given. Prices briefly went up wildly, and now are returning to trend. It is hardly a perfect storm.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
I am not so sure.....not only are we importing something like 3.5 million people a year but those who come tend to be prolific breeders, and we have not been building much housing in recent years. Supply and Demand is still a thing.
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Immigration is about 1 million a year, and they are more educated than the average native born American, so are less "prolific breeders" than you would think.
 
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