Popular sentiment in Vietnam may favor expanded ties with the United States, but party leaders in Hanoi, all too aware of their country’s geographic proximity to, and economic dependence on, China, worry about blowback from Beijing if they get too close to Washington. They also have doubts about Washington’s long-term commitment to allies and partners in the region. And so Hanoi, seeking to balance China without provoking it, pursues a “multidirectional” foreign policy rooted in “four no’s”: no foreign troops on Vietnamese soil, no allying with one country to counter another, no military alliances with foreign powers, and no using force or threatening to use force in international relations.
In recent months, rising U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan have only intensified Vietnam’s efforts to triangulate between Washington and Beijing. This hedging behavior was on display in late October when Vietnamese Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong paid an official visit to Beijing. Trong was the first foreign leader to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping after China’s 20th Party Congress, telling him that Vietnam gives “top priority” to “developing its comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership with China.” This party-to-party visit was not, in fact, unusual from a historical perspective, and it probably says more about China’s calculations than Vietnam’s, with Xi pointedly reminding Trong that both countries should “never let anyone interfere” with their progress.
Hanoi’s caution is understandable from an economic perspective. Although Vietnam has emerged as Asia’s growth leader, with annual growth expected to reach 8% in 2022, its economy has become increasingly dependent on China since 2012, when Xi became China’s paramount leader. Vietnam is by far China’s largest trading partner in ASEAN. Trade between the two countries surpassed $165 billion in 2021, more than quadruple the figure from 2012. Last year, nearly a fifth of Vietnam’s exports went to China, which, in turn, contributed a third of Vietnam’s imports. These imports are indispensable to Vietnam’s manufacturing supply chain..