Should Republicans be worried?

Topspin said:
Johnson the repub is the guy I'd much rather see than Obama

However, I'm not praying for the economy to tank or slow to get him in.
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Actually, I am not either. I'd be happier if the economy really started massively clicking rather than keep holding onto "hope", even if it did make it tougher for a republican to win. I just don't see it doing it quickly enough to ensure a walk-in for the President.
 
Topspin said:
Superfreak said:
only because of housing declines.
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lol housing counts a lot
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40%

Which is why people are pissed when they hear inflation is 'tame' from political 'experts'. They feel the pain of the rise in energy, gasoline, food, clothing etc... they do not feel the 'benefits' of the decline in home values (unless they try to sell) because their mortgage payments don't change (on fixed rate loans obviously). People are not going to vote based on what the technical level of inflation is.... they are going to vote based on how they are personally affected (what they feel)
 
Superfreak said:
40%

Which is why people are pissed when they hear inflation is 'tame' from political 'experts'. They feel the pain of the rise in energy, gasoline, food, clothing etc... they do not feel the 'benefits' of the decline in home values (unless they try to sell) because their mortgage payments don't change (on fixed rate loans obviously). People are not going to vote based on what the technical level of inflation is.... they are going to vote based on how they are personally affected (what they feel)
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I'd agree with that, not with rising inflation
People buying houses are getting a much better deal
 
I didn't say how many I think

I do think gas is going down this summer and the economy will be above 3% growth in 12

I want Johnson but Obama wins easy unless the economy is measurabley worse than it is now
 
Ice Dancer said:
The generic match-up is bad news for Obama no matter how well democrat fingers are stuck in ears and they stamp their feet. Combined with his 51% overall disapproval numbers Obama is hardly sailing into 2012~


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12 (see trends).

The president leads a generic Republican 45% to 43% in an early look at Election 2012. Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on this generic matchup each week until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders. Updates will be released Tuesdays at 3:00 p.m. Eastern. Republicans hold a three-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Looking back, just 25% of voters think the federal bailouts of banks, auto companies and insurance companies were good for the United States. Consumer confidence fell for the second straight day suggesting that the bin Laden bounce may be over.

Fifty percent (50%) now have confidence in the stability of the U.S. banking system. That is up slightly from a month ago and up eleven points since February 2009. However, it is far below the confidence expressed prior to the financial industry meltdown in the fall of 2008.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) favor cutting off funds for sanctuary cities.
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You're siting Rasmussen? Seriously? Rasmussen? Seriously?
 
Damocles said:
When it comes down to it, the American people vote their pocketbooks. They'll ask themselves if they are more secure in their jobs, if they are doing better, if they can afford more stuff rather than less, etc. If they find the current Administration wanting in those particulars it makes the incumbent vulnerable to even those who aren't as charismatic. The best bet for Obama is to distract from the economy, to lean heavily on immigration, on the war outside the US, to draw every eye away from the current state of the economy. Unless Bernanke is wrong and we'll suddenly have strong growth rather than anemic growth Obama will remain vulnerable, even if it appears at this moment that "nobody can beat him"...
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That's a strawman Damo. No one said that Obama was invulnerable or that noboday can beat him. We have said that his re-election odds are looking quite good at this time.
 
Damocles said:
I don't believe we are still in decline, I believe our anemic growth is a sign of stagflation, couple that with the actual higher prices we are paying for goods and services and the loss of value of our savings due to hidden inflation. Bernanke's big press conference (does anybody remember it) where he predicted continued anemic growth didn't bode well.

It is possible for it all to turn around regardless as the economy is greatly based on how people feel and believe rather than statistics and playing with the statistics can help. Obama won't be vulnerable if it does turn around, if the minimal growth continues and real unemployment remains high Obama absolutely will be a vulnerable incumbent, even if people really believe that he is a walk-in.
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Well I can tell your age from that comment Damo! LOL Stagflation COULD become a problem. It hasn't become one yet and if the current conditions could be described as "stagflation" it aint even remotely as bad as it was in the mid to late 70's.
 
Damocles said:
Actually, I am not either. I'd be happier if the economy really started massively clicking rather than keep holding onto "hope", even if it did make it tougher for a republican to win. I just don't see it doing it quickly enough to ensure a walk-in for the President.
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You're spinning again Damo. No one said that it would be a shoo in for Obama except you. What has been said is that at this moment his re-election odds are looking good.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
You're spinning again Damo. No one said that it would be a shoo in for Obama except you. What has been said is that at this moment his re-election odds are looking good.
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Right, when you assured me that he would win with a greater margin than before, then tried to narrow that margin I should have taken that as your assertion he wasn't a walk-in...

:rolleyes:

The "should they be worried" question also doesn't suggest that some people think this will be an easy run for Obama. Nope, couldn't possibly see it that way!
 
Ice Dancer said:
Ummm OK Mr. brilliant I am citing Rasmussen--apart from my showing your spelling error can you please show where their statistical errors are?
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Oh Come on ID. You couldn't possibly be that obtuse. Rasmussen is a joke. Everyone knows they are a lap dog of the Republican party. Hell even Fox polls are more objective and reliable then Rasmussen.
 
Damocles said:
Right, when you assured me that he would win with a greater margin than before, then tried to narrow that margin I should have taken that as your assertion he wasn't a walk-in...

:rolleyes:

The "should they be worried" question also doesn't suggest that some people think this will be an easy run for Obama. Nope, couldn't possibly see it that way!
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Oh don't be so dim witted. Just because I think Obama will win by a substantial margin doesn't mean that I think it will be easy for him to do so. Personally everyone is saying it's all about the economy. That's wrong. It's not. It's about having a strong opponent too and even if the economy declines Obama can and probably will win if Republicans field a weak candidate and every indication is that appears to be happening.

So far Obama polls well against a "Yet to be identified challenger" and he does even better in the polls when a challenger is named. Republicans are standing a weak field at the moment and unless they do better then Romney, Daniels, Cain, Gingrich, Huckabee, etc, they got real problems.
 
Superfreak said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008

ONCE again I will post this in response to your nonsense....

52.9% for Obama
45.7% for McCain

Equals a 7.2% difference

Now, each time we post this, you respond with 'uh, no u jr college guys no do math well'.... tell you what genius.... how about you post a link to where you are getting 6% from???
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Bump for Mott.... still waiting on where you are getting your data from Mott.... Also still waiting to see your fantastic math skills at work...
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Oh don't be so dim witted. Just because I think Obama will win by a substantial margin doesn't mean that I think it will be easy for him to do so. Personally everyone is saying it's all about the economy. That's wrong. It's not. It's about having a strong opponent too and even if the economy declines Obama can and probably will win if Republicans field a weak candidate and every indication is that appears to be happening.

So far Obama polls well against a "Yet to be identified challenger" and he does even better in the polls when a challenger is named. Republicans are standing a weak field at the moment and unless they do better then Romney, Daniels, Cain, Gingrich, Huckabee, etc, they got real problems.
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Right. The guy who says he'll win by an even bigger margin than 7.2% is now saying that it won't be easy... Seriously, do you hear yourself?
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Oh don't be so dim witted. Just because I think Obama will win by a substantial margin doesn't mean that I think it will be easy for him to do so. Personally everyone is saying it's all about the economy. That's wrong. It's not. It's about having a strong opponent too and even if the economy declines Obama can and probably will win if Republicans field a weak candidate and every indication is that appears to be happening.

So far Obama polls well against a "Yet to be identified challenger" and he does even better in the polls when a challenger is named. Republicans are standing a weak field at the moment and unless they do better then Romney, Daniels, Cain, Gingrich, Huckabee, etc, they got real problems.
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A win by more than 7.2% is considered a very easy win moron.
 
Trust me.... he is in hiding again now that I asked him to demonstrate his math skills.... he doesn't want us to have verification that he is indeed yet another dumbshit from Ohio.
 
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