Should Republicans be worried?

Gasoline trading was temporarily haulted today after it was down 7%.

Get ready folks, the inevitable fall for oil and gasoline prices is coming.

This time I'm cheering it on for once.
 
I don't believe we are still in decline, I believe our anemic growth is a sign of stagflation, couple that with the actual higher prices we are paying for goods and services and the loss of value of our savings due to hidden inflation. Bernanke's big press conference (does anybody remember it) where he predicted continued anemic growth didn't bode well.

It is possible for it all to turn around regardless as the economy is greatly based on how people feel and believe rather than statistics and playing with the statistics can help. Obama won't be vulnerable if it does turn around, if the minimal growth continues and real unemployment remains high Obama absolutely will be a vulnerable incumbent, even if people really believe that he is a walk-in.
 
Topspin said:
Gasoline trading was temporarily haulted today after it was down 7%.

Get ready folks, the inevitable fall for oil and gasoline prices is coming.

This time I'm cheering it on for once.
Click to expand...

This will make a big difference. If the trend continues and stays low throughout the 18 months of the campaign, this will help immensely.
 
q4 2010 3.1%, q1 1.8%
this is not anemic, unless your a hack who's party is out of power. that is all
 
Topspin said:
q4 2010 3.1%, q1 1.8%
this is not anemic, unless your a hack who's party is out of power. that is all
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1 to 3% is absolutely anemic, Japan's lost decade had a rate of up to 3% at times, but it wasn't enough to replace jobs lost. Their frugality and savings, often missing in Americans, saved many of their families. In order to regain and surpass the jobs we lost during the Great Recession we need to at least double that for many consecutive quarters.

Couple that with facts like 1 in 5 working age men not having jobs (link below) and you realize that the "everything is roses" picture you are trying to paint is far from reality. There are some indications that we may come out of this, but the 3% growth for the year? I don't think it would be enough and I think it is a generous prediction. I think it will be more likely to be average of between 1 and 2 percent. Of course it will be reported as more then redacted (almost all of those reports are regardless of who is in office) down in a less obvious story at a later date.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/08/1-in-5-working-age-americ_n_415984.html
 
the long term grow rate for gdp is 3%

I must have a different understanding of anemic, to me it's below 2%
 
Damocles said:
Remember H.W. Bush with record approval just months before an election? His current approval ratings notwithstanding I believe that due to the economic environment he is vulnerable, actually for much the same reasons that Bush was. I believe that many Democrats will be shocked when they realize they should have been fighting a bit harder during the election, but they thought Obama was a shoo-in.
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Thanks Damo, I was just about to point out, following the first Gulf War, H.W. Bush had an approval rating of 92% ...much higher than Obama currently has, and he LOST his reelection bid. I would not get too overconfident if I were a Democrat, Obama is popular for the moment, but there is a LONG way to go until November 2012. On the economy, it has been showing some signs of life, but NO ONE believes we are out of the woods, and what little growth we've had, is anemic. $5-$6 gas is not going to help anything, especially Obama with his anti-oil policies. As the summer wears on, and people have to bear the brunt of this, it will effect the economy and consumer prices... that hasn't been discussed much, but inflation is coming... big time! In fact, it is already here... We are paying about 15% more for groceries now, than before Obama became president, and that is only going to continue to worsen, in correlation to gas prices. Unemployment is still a HUGE problem, we just aren't creating the jobs we need fast enough, and I don't see anything happening in the near future to change that, again, the Obama anti-business policies are contradictory to that. Obama has some huge problems ahead, and if pinheads want to rally around him over killing OBL, that's fine, but I guarantee it won't guarantee him reelection.
 
Reagan might be a better example than Bush I. He inherited an economic mess, and at a similar point in his Presidency, unemployment was double digits. We weren't out of the woods by '84, but he won in a landslide.

Campaigns are all about marketing. Reagan convinced Americans that, even though things weren't great, they were headed in the right direction - "stay the course"....
 
Onceler said:
Reagan might be a better example than Bush I. He inherited an economic mess, and at a similar point in his Presidency, unemployment was double digits. We weren't out of the woods by '84, but he won in a landslide.

Campaigns are all about marketing. Reagan convinced Americans that, even though things weren't great, they were headed in the right direction - "stay the course"....
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Right. I'm not predicting that a republican is a shoo-in either, just pointing out that it isn't guaranteed and IMO Obama will have a more difficult time convincing people we are on the right track mostly based on the incredible amount of overspending we've had during his Administration. It will largely depend on how the independents see the "blame Bush" factor for the economy. The reality is this guy is vulnerable, and IMO very vulnerable. Much will depend on the republicans ability to nationalize the campaign and to come up with a solid plan. They need to use their Congressional seats to put it forward now, and be refused by Democrats in the Senate or through Veto.

If the republicans maintain an ineffective and disjointed approach then Obama will win, if they can produce a strong plan that isn't based in overspending like there never will be a day we'll have to pay and push it through policy then they have a strong chance. If they act as if they are powerless then they will lose. That's pretty much how I see things going now. Somebody needs to step up to the plate at this moment and show strong leadership. Boehner is attempting this with the debt ceiling, but this may be the incorrect approach. We have many moons to go before the election, nothing is "certain" and pointing to approval ratings at this point is quite worthless as we've seen with the Bushs.
 
Johnson the repub is the guy I'd much rather see than Obama

However, I'm not praying for the economy to tank or slow to get him in.
 
Onceler said:
Reagan might be a better example than Bush I. He inherited an economic mess, and at a similar point in his Presidency, unemployment was double digits. We weren't out of the woods by '84, but he won in a landslide.

Campaigns are all about marketing. Reagan convinced Americans that, even though things weren't great, they were headed in the right direction - "stay the course"....
Click to expand...

Side by side, Reagan's recovery was far superior. Not exactly the same environment as back then, but if you are going to compare....

After the 81/82 recession, unemployment in the first 27 months went from 10.8% to 7.5%. GDP growth under Reagan during that time was over 7%. Inflation was dropping, interest rates were dropping.

After the 2008/09 recession, unemployment has come down from its 10.3% peak to 9% currently. GDP growth is averaging about 2.8% (1st qtr dipping to 1.8%). Inflation is rising, interest rates cannot go lower.

we were well out of the woods in 1984 due to the high GDP growth, lowering inflation and interest rates, unemployment rate dropping.... plus... the Dems put up Mondale.... slaughter on aisle five....
 
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