Topspin
Verified User
Intrade has the line at 60% Obama gets re-elected
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
Should Republicans be worried?
- Thread starter Mott the Hoople
- Start date
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The Almighty
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008
ONCE again I will post this in response to your nonsense....
52.9% for Obama
45.7% for McCain
Equals a 7.2% difference
Now, each time we post this, you respond with 'uh, no u jr college guys no do math well'.... tell you what genius.... how about you post a link to where you are getting 6% from???
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The Almighty
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
He is at 60% in one poll.... a poll that thus far has been an extreme outlier.
Obama won by a pretty healthy margin last time; he just needs to keep those folks on board....
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The Almighty
No it won't. This is going to come down to the economy.... period. If the economy recovers by Nov 2012, it will be a landslide for Obama. Nothing else will matter. If the economy is the way it is today, it is going to be a dogfight at best for Obama. An ass kicking if the Reps actually come up with a viable option (which thus far they really have not.... save Romney... but the far right is going to make it hard for him to get the nomination)
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The Almighty
if the economy stays as it is, he will win a close race against a weak Rep and he will lose the race to a strong Rep.
Unemployment will need to be around 7.5% and trending down for him to crush anyone.
Topspin
Verified User
I totally dissagree and we will see.
I agree is 90% the economy, and while I don't think repubs need a double dip.
I think they need a stronger than Dole Republican and less than 2% GDP.
I mock dems as much as repubs. that said the republican grasp on the unemployment rate to me is funny as hell. they are not swing voters.
I agree is 90% the economy, and while I don't think repubs need a double dip.
I think they need a stronger than Dole Republican and less than 2% GDP.
I mock dems as much as repubs. that said the republican grasp on the unemployment rate to me is funny as hell. they are not swing voters.
Remember H.W. Bush with record approval just months before an election? His current approval ratings notwithstanding I believe that due to the economic environment he is vulnerable, actually for much the same reasons that Bush was. I believe that many Democrats will be shocked when they realize they should have been fighting a bit harder during the election, but they thought Obama was a shoo-in.
The generic match-up is bad news for Obama no matter how well democrat fingers are stuck in ears and they stamp their feet. Combined with his 51% overall disapproval numbers Obama is hardly sailing into 2012~
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12 (see trends).
The president leads a generic Republican 45% to 43% in an early look at Election 2012. Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on this generic matchup each week until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders. Updates will be released Tuesdays at 3:00 p.m. Eastern. Republicans hold a three-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Looking back, just 25% of voters think the federal bailouts of banks, auto companies and insurance companies were good for the United States. Consumer confidence fell for the second straight day suggesting that the bin Laden bounce may be over.
Fifty percent (50%) now have confidence in the stability of the U.S. banking system. That is up slightly from a month ago and up eleven points since February 2009. However, it is far below the confidence expressed prior to the financial industry meltdown in the fall of 2008.
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook
Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) favor cutting off funds for sanctuary cities.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12 (see trends).
The president leads a generic Republican 45% to 43% in an early look at Election 2012. Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on this generic matchup each week until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders. Updates will be released Tuesdays at 3:00 p.m. Eastern. Republicans hold a three-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Looking back, just 25% of voters think the federal bailouts of banks, auto companies and insurance companies were good for the United States. Consumer confidence fell for the second straight day suggesting that the bin Laden bounce may be over.
Fifty percent (50%) now have confidence in the stability of the U.S. banking system. That is up slightly from a month ago and up eleven points since February 2009. However, it is far below the confidence expressed prior to the financial industry meltdown in the fall of 2008.
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook
Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) favor cutting off funds for sanctuary cities.
They don't need to have one at this point---and sadly, the economy stupid, is still in decline...buh-bye Oblama-buh bye~
When it comes down to it, the American people vote their pocketbooks. They'll ask themselves if they are more secure in their jobs, if they are doing better, if they can afford more stuff rather than less, etc. If they find the current Administration wanting in those particulars it makes the incumbent vulnerable to even those who aren't as charismatic. The best bet for Obama is to distract from the economy, to lean heavily on immigration, on the war outside the US, to draw every eye away from the current state of the economy. Unless Bernanke is wrong and we'll suddenly have strong growth rather than anemic growth Obama will remain vulnerable, even if it appears at this moment that "nobody can beat him"...
Lots of wishful thinking on this thread from the righties.
The economy is not "still in decline." Pretty much every indicator is up. You can make an argument that it's not growing fast enough, or even that it's stagnating somewhat, but "still in decline" is pure, 100% ignorance.
Topdope has no brain-unless straw is considered actual brain matter~
The Case For Slower Than Expected Growth
As noted above, the WSJ and BCEI surveys both suggest that the economy will grow by slightly more than 3% this year. But there were plenty of respondents to both surveys that believe the economy will grow by less than 3% this year. What follows is a brief summation of the concerns held by these less optimistic survey respondents, in no particular order.
President Obama’s $800+ billion stimulus spending will largely come to an end in 2011. Many argue that it accomplished little in the way of real growth in the economy. There appears to be little or no talk about further stimulus coming from the Obama Administration, so other than the temporary payroll tax holiday passed in December, fiscal policy will be mostly neutral in 2011. Likewise, the Fed’s $600 billion QE2 will come to an end by mid-year, and as noted above, most economists expect interest rates to rise this year.
State and local governments are drowning in red ink. This will be a drag on the national economy as states cut budgets and lay off workers. In addition, it will also result in higher taxes and fees as states struggle to balance their budgets.
The Case For Slower Than Expected Growth
As noted above, the WSJ and BCEI surveys both suggest that the economy will grow by slightly more than 3% this year. But there were plenty of respondents to both surveys that believe the economy will grow by less than 3% this year. What follows is a brief summation of the concerns held by these less optimistic survey respondents, in no particular order.
President Obama’s $800+ billion stimulus spending will largely come to an end in 2011. Many argue that it accomplished little in the way of real growth in the economy. There appears to be little or no talk about further stimulus coming from the Obama Administration, so other than the temporary payroll tax holiday passed in December, fiscal policy will be mostly neutral in 2011. Likewise, the Fed’s $600 billion QE2 will come to an end by mid-year, and as noted above, most economists expect interest rates to rise this year.
State and local governments are drowning in red ink. This will be a drag on the national economy as states cut budgets and lay off workers. In addition, it will also result in higher taxes and fees as states struggle to balance their budgets.
How does this support a "still in decline" narrative?
You understand that growth & decline are 2 different things, correct?
Economists foretell of U.S. decline, China's ascension
By Mark Felsenthal
DENVER | Sun Jan 9, 2011 12:24pm EST
Jan 9 (Reuters) - To hear a number of prominent economists tell it, it doesn't look good for the U.S. economy, not this year, not in 10 years.
Leading thinkers in the dismal science speaking at an annual convention offered varying visions of U.S. economic decline, in the short, medium and long term. This year, the recovery may bog down as government stimulus measures dry up.
In the long run, the United States must face up to inevitably being overtaken by China as the world's largest economy. And it may have missed a chance to rein in its largest financial institutions, many of whom remain too big to fail and are getting bigger.
On the one hand, Harvard's Martin Feldstein said he believes the outlook for U.S. economic growth in 2011 is less sanguine than many believe.
First, the boost to growth from government spending will be drying up this year, he said. Renewal of expiring tax cuts is no more than a decision not to raise taxes, and the impact of one-year payroll tax cut is likely modest, he said.
By Mark Felsenthal
DENVER | Sun Jan 9, 2011 12:24pm EST
Jan 9 (Reuters) - To hear a number of prominent economists tell it, it doesn't look good for the U.S. economy, not this year, not in 10 years.
Leading thinkers in the dismal science speaking at an annual convention offered varying visions of U.S. economic decline, in the short, medium and long term. This year, the recovery may bog down as government stimulus measures dry up.
In the long run, the United States must face up to inevitably being overtaken by China as the world's largest economy. And it may have missed a chance to rein in its largest financial institutions, many of whom remain too big to fail and are getting bigger.
On the one hand, Harvard's Martin Feldstein said he believes the outlook for U.S. economic growth in 2011 is less sanguine than many believe.
First, the boost to growth from government spending will be drying up this year, he said. Renewal of expiring tax cuts is no more than a decision not to raise taxes, and the impact of one-year payroll tax cut is likely modest, he said.
Some economists, with a theory about the future.
"Still in decline" means it's declining now, and has been. Did you not realize that when you wrote it? Did you mean to write "might decline, according to some economists?"
LOL