No it’s not but the economy isn’t the only metric he will be measured by. The Democrats could lose the key metrics on the midterms, the short term economy and the long term economy but if Biden wins the rest of the key metric, which is unlikely, he would still win.
What, specifically, makes you think that? Bloomberg's latest survey say there's a 70% chance we don't go into recession at all, in the foreseeable future, much less a particularly sharp recession. There's certainly a risk -- a Democrat is president, which means the Fed will have a strong appetite for killing the economy with rate hikes. But Fed-initiated recessions don't tend to be very long. In fact, one of the shortest recessions in history was the Carter recession, caused by the Fed restricting money supply. The kinds of things that cause deeper and longer recessions don't seem to be present today, like lots of debt overhang (the big picture behind the 2007 recession, and the Great Depression). As I mentioned in my top post today, we actually have unusually little private debt right now. Household debt payments as a share of disposable income are lower than they were for the entirety of the 1980-2011 period. Without a bunch of debt to cripple consumer spending, what would make a recession particularly long or deep?
