Russia's equipment loss is CATASTROPHIC and about to get worse

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As of Thursday night:


Remember, these are only visually confirmed kills, so they are most definitely an undercount. Yet even that number presents a bleak picture for Russia. There were around 120 Russian BTGs at the start of the invasion around Ukraine, and reportedly 160 BTGs army wide. We’ve already looked at the problems with Russia’s BTGs, but for now, let’s just look at how it’s constructed:

Each BTG has approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers, of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles [...]

That means there were around 1,200 tanks in Ukraine, and around 1,600 in the entire Russian army. Of course, Russia likely has potentially tens of thousands of Soviet-era tanks in storage, but good luck getting that stuff working mechanically. Not to mention, they don’t seemingly have the crews for them anyway. Conscripts don’t learn to drive tanks. They are given 1950s-era rifles and thrown into the meat grinder.

Oryx counts 240 Russian tanks destroyed, captured, or abandoned. That is a very neat, nicely rounded 20% of Russia’s in-theater supply. Gone. Of the 4,800 infantry fighting vehicles, Russia has lost at least 449, approaching 10% of the total. And again, this is the floor, as not every battle, every loss, is video recorded, and not everything recorded makes it online.

Furthermore, remember that destroying a BTG doesn’t mean killing everyone in it.

[D]estruction of 60 [of its 600-800 soldiers] and 15 [of its 50 vehicles] will force a BTG to withdraw and reconstitute.

A few days ago, Ukrainian general staff had claimed over 30 Russian BTGs had been forced to withdraw to reconstitute, which is 100% plausible, given that nearly 700 tanks and APCs have been confirmed destroyed.

Russia’s saving grace has been its artillery, which by virtue of sitting behind the front lines, has suffered fewer confirmed losses than those spearhead infantry and tank units. Oryx counts just around 100 destroyed pieces of artillery. Ukraine just hasn’t had the capabilities to strike behind enemy lines, and it has given Russia free reign to conduct its heinous campaign of terror against urban civilians. And no, a no-fly-zone or Mig-29s wouldn’t be of any use dealing with this critical task. But you know what are? Those Switchblade killer suicide drones on their way from the United States to Ukraine. As Mark Sumner wrote yesterday, Ukraine will now have 1,000 new killer drones to deploy against the scourge of Russian artillery. It’s certainly what the Pentagon is expecting, as last night’s background briefing confirms:


Given how effective anti-tank missiles have proven against Russian armor and mechanized infantry, Ukraine is free to use the drones against artillery positions and their command-and-control and supply lines. If the steady supply of Javelins is any indication, those first 1,000 Switchblades are just the start, as replenishments get put on auto-delivery.

Take Russia’s artillery away, and what’s left? Two dozen cruise missiles fired daily from across the border, of which they’re likely running low anyway? Russia will always have the tools to murder, but take away their artillery, and there goes about 95% of that capability, while Javelins, NLAWs, and brave Ukrainian defenders take care of the rest of Russia’s war machine.
 
reagansghost said:
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As of Thursday night:


Remember, these are only visually confirmed kills, so they are most definitely an undercount. Yet even that number presents a bleak picture for Russia. There were around 120 Russian BTGs at the start of the invasion around Ukraine, and reportedly 160 BTGs army wide. We’ve already looked at the problems with Russia’s BTGs, but for now, let’s just look at how it’s constructed:

Each BTG has approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers, of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles [...]

That means there were around 1,200 tanks in Ukraine, and around 1,600 in the entire Russian army. Of course, Russia likely has potentially tens of thousands of Soviet-era tanks in storage, but good luck getting that stuff working mechanically. Not to mention, they don’t seemingly have the crews for them anyway. Conscripts don’t learn to drive tanks. They are given 1950s-era rifles and thrown into the meat grinder.

Oryx counts 240 Russian tanks destroyed, captured, or abandoned. That is a very neat, nicely rounded 20% of Russia’s in-theater supply. Gone. Of the 4,800 infantry fighting vehicles, Russia has lost at least 449, approaching 10% of the total. And again, this is the floor, as not every battle, every loss, is video recorded, and not everything recorded makes it online.

Furthermore, remember that destroying a BTG doesn’t mean killing everyone in it.

[D]estruction of 60 [of its 600-800 soldiers] and 15 [of its 50 vehicles] will force a BTG to withdraw and reconstitute.

A few days ago, Ukrainian general staff had claimed over 30 Russian BTGs had been forced to withdraw to reconstitute, which is 100% plausible, given that nearly 700 tanks and APCs have been confirmed destroyed.

Russia’s saving grace has been its artillery, which by virtue of sitting behind the front lines, has suffered fewer confirmed losses than those spearhead infantry and tank units. Oryx counts just around 100 destroyed pieces of artillery. Ukraine just hasn’t had the capabilities to strike behind enemy lines, and it has given Russia free reign to conduct its heinous campaign of terror against urban civilians. And no, a no-fly-zone or Mig-29s wouldn’t be of any use dealing with this critical task. But you know what are? Those Switchblade killer suicide drones on their way from the United States to Ukraine. As Mark Sumner wrote yesterday, Ukraine will now have 1,000 new killer drones to deploy against the scourge of Russian artillery. It’s certainly what the Pentagon is expecting, as last night’s background briefing confirms:


Given how effective anti-tank missiles have proven against Russian armor and mechanized infantry, Ukraine is free to use the drones against artillery positions and their command-and-control and supply lines. If the steady supply of Javelins is any indication, those first 1,000 Switchblades are just the start, as replenishments get put on auto-delivery.

Take Russia’s artillery away, and what’s left? Two dozen cruise missiles fired daily from across the border, of which they’re likely running low anyway? Russia will always have the tools to murder, but take away their artillery, and there goes about 95% of that capability, while Javelins, NLAWs, and brave Ukrainian defenders take care of the rest of Russia’s war machine.
Click to expand...

What the fuck is this shit?

How about a link...DUH???
 
reagansghost said:
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PUBLISHED TO
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Daily Kos
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Ukraine
War
Share this article

As of Thursday night:


Remember, these are only visually confirmed kills, so they are most definitely an undercount. Yet even that number presents a bleak picture for Russia. There were around 120 Russian BTGs at the start of the invasion around Ukraine, and reportedly 160 BTGs army wide. We’ve already looked at the problems with Russia’s BTGs, but for now, let’s just look at how it’s constructed:

Each BTG has approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers, of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles [...]

That means there were around 1,200 tanks in Ukraine, and around 1,600 in the entire Russian army. Of course, Russia likely has potentially tens of thousands of Soviet-era tanks in storage, but good luck getting that stuff working mechanically. Not to mention, they don’t seemingly have the crews for them anyway. Conscripts don’t learn to drive tanks. They are given 1950s-era rifles and thrown into the meat grinder.

Oryx counts 240 Russian tanks destroyed, captured, or abandoned. That is a very neat, nicely rounded 20% of Russia’s in-theater supply. Gone. Of the 4,800 infantry fighting vehicles, Russia has lost at least 449, approaching 10% of the total. And again, this is the floor, as not every battle, every loss, is video recorded, and not everything recorded makes it online.

Furthermore, remember that destroying a BTG doesn’t mean killing everyone in it.

[D]estruction of 60 [of its 600-800 soldiers] and 15 [of its 50 vehicles] will force a BTG to withdraw and reconstitute.

A few days ago, Ukrainian general staff had claimed over 30 Russian BTGs had been forced to withdraw to reconstitute, which is 100% plausible, given that nearly 700 tanks and APCs have been confirmed destroyed.

Russia’s saving grace has been its artillery, which by virtue of sitting behind the front lines, has suffered fewer confirmed losses than those spearhead infantry and tank units. Oryx counts just around 100 destroyed pieces of artillery. Ukraine just hasn’t had the capabilities to strike behind enemy lines, and it has given Russia free reign to conduct its heinous campaign of terror against urban civilians. And no, a no-fly-zone or Mig-29s wouldn’t be of any use dealing with this critical task. But you know what are? Those Switchblade killer suicide drones on their way from the United States to Ukraine. As Mark Sumner wrote yesterday, Ukraine will now have 1,000 new killer drones to deploy against the scourge of Russian artillery. It’s certainly what the Pentagon is expecting, as last night’s background briefing confirms:


Given how effective anti-tank missiles have proven against Russian armor and mechanized infantry, Ukraine is free to use the drones against artillery positions and their command-and-control and supply lines. If the steady supply of Javelins is any indication, those first 1,000 Switchblades are just the start, as replenishments get put on auto-delivery.

Take Russia’s artillery away, and what’s left? Two dozen cruise missiles fired daily from across the border, of which they’re likely running low anyway? Russia will always have the tools to murder, but take away their artillery, and there goes about 95% of that capability, while Javelins, NLAWs, and brave Ukrainian defenders take care of the rest of Russia’s war machine.
Click to expand...

What are BTGs?

It's astounding that Russia's army is this lackluster. I'm having a hard time buying it. I think instead that what's going on is Putin wants to save as much of Ukraine's infrastructure as possible, so is waging a long-distance terror campaign instead of throwing the whole military at them at once. No doubt he hopes that as it wears on, the citizens will turn against their govt. and throw them out.
 
reagansghost said:
notice Putin's puppies can only whine about the link...don't blame them for ignoring the content

Putin lost ladies
Click to expand...
I could care less if he won or lost.
Doesn't affect my life one little bit.
But you seem to REALLY FUCKING care.

1) some liberal dude that his basing ALL his information on one, fringe source is hardly 'solid information'.

2) Ukraine uses Russian equipment. A blown up Ukrainian tank looks a LOT like a blown up Russian tank. Most people cannot tell the difference in that state.

3) You call losing less than 5% of their armored vehicles as 'catastrophic'?

You must call a light rain shower as 'calamitous'.
Or a bit too much salt in your soup as 'tragic'.

:laugh:

4) And this doofus clearly knows dick about tech - despite his military history.
He is freaking out about those 'Switchblade killer suicide drones'.
Hasn't this idiot ever heard of 'radio frequency jamming'?
Fuck, I could go out and buy a system that could jam most drone signals right now...but it is illegal in most places.
So the Russians post drone jammers with every artillery regiment.
Big deal.

Do you really think that major militaries around the world have NOT thought about defending against drones?
Seriously?
Pleeeeeease.

I think Putin made a HUGE mistake in attacking Ukraine. It was a terrible thing to do.
But, all things considered?
He is doing better than I thought he would.

17march2022_Ukraine-scaled.jpg


But your childish rants and posts just show how clueless you are about military matters.
Or common sense - possibly.

Bye troll.
 
ThatOwlWoman said:
What are BTGs?

It's astounding that Russia's army is this lackluster. I'm having a hard time buying it. I think instead that what's going on is Putin wants to save as much of Ukraine's infrastructure as possible, so is waging a long-distance terror campaign instead of throwing the whole military at them at once. No doubt he hopes that as it wears on, the citizens will turn against their govt. and throw them out.
Click to expand...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battalion_tactical_group
 
ThatOwlWoman said:
What are BTGs?

It's astounding that Russia's army is this lackluster. I'm having a hard time buying it. I think instead that what's going on is Putin wants to save as much of Ukraine's infrastructure as possible, so is waging a long-distance terror campaign instead of throwing the whole military at them at once. No doubt he hopes that as it wears on, the citizens will turn against their govt. and throw them out.
Click to expand...

battalion tactical group -- modular tactical organization created from a garrisoned Russian Army brigade to deploy combat power to conflict zones.

the Russian army is definitely a rag tag group of conscripts, outdated equipment, horrible morale, lacking in leadership at every level.........they're a gang of lowrent thugs murdering Ukrainian civilians because they can't even win against Ukrainian partisans.......they are as fucked as all the battlefield reports indicate
 
reagansghost said:
battalion tactical group -- modular tactical organization created from a garrisoned Russian Army brigade to deploy combat power to conflict zones.

the Russian army is definitely a rag tag group of conscripts, outdated equipment, horrible morale, lacking in leadership at every level.........they're a gang of lowrent thugs murdering Ukrainian civilians because they can't even win against Ukrainian partisans.......they are as fucked as all the battlefield reports indicate
Click to expand...

No doubt Putin and his generals believed that Ukraine was just as poorly-equipped and trained. They never counted on the rest of the world helping them.
 
McRocket said:
I could care less if he won or lost.
Doesn't affect my life one little bit.
But you seem to REALLY FUCKING care.

1) some liberal dude that his basing ALL his information on one, fringe source is hardly 'solid information'.

2) Ukraine uses Russian equipment. A blown up Ukrainian tank looks a LOT like a blown up Russian tank. Most people cannot tell the difference in that state.

3) You call losing less than 5% of their armored vehicles as 'catastrophic'?

You must call a light rain shower as 'calamitous'.
Or a bit too much salt in your soup as 'tragic'.

:laugh:

4) And this doofus clearly knows dick about tech - despite his military history.
He is freaking out about those 'Switchblade killer suicide drones'.
Hasn't this idiot ever heard of 'radio frequency jamming'?
Fuck, I could go out and buy a system that could jam most drone signals right now...but it is illegal in most places.
So the Russians post drone jammers with every artillery regiment.
Big deal.

Do you really think that major militaries around the world have NOT thought about defending against drones?
Seriously?
Pleeeeeease.

I think Putin made a HUGE mistake in attacking Ukraine. It was a terrible thing to do.
But, all things considered?
He is doing better than I thought he would.


But your childish rants and posts just show how clueless you are about military matters.
Or common sense - possibly.

Bye troll.
Click to expand...


would you blow Vlad?
 
I can’t stress enough how big today was for Ukraine. Conducting their first major counter-offensive and moving 75 km in a day is huge. Let’s get into why, and what are the next occurrences to watch for. I’d like to also give a shout out to Lawrence for accurately predicting the first big move in Mykolaiv.

With defeats of Russians at Voznesensk and pushing them back past Posad-Pokrovskote, the Ukrainians have given themselves a giant morale booster, successfully tested the defensive capability of Russia, and are potentially cutting off Russian forces in Kryvyi Rih. I wish I knew the manner in which the push was achieved. Was it a straightforward push with Russian’s pulling back (or becoming a full rout) or did the Ukrainians bypass Russian forces and take Posad-Pokrovskote cutting off the Russians near Mykolaiv and capturing them?

Either way this is a defeat of what should have been the major Russian axis of advance in the south. A more competent Russian pincer would have used a minor diversionary assault in the East pinning Ukrainian forces in place while concentrating the majority of their forces on the Northern pincer from Belarus and the Southern pincer from Crimea. The Crimean pincer should have quickly focused on taking Kherson, Mykolaiv on to Odesa, then driving north to Kyiv. The port in Odesa would have been a major supply node for southern forces and is critically west of the Dnieper river. Odesa as a supply node would have meant less of the supply line occurring on land and more of it by ship on the Black Sea where the Russian Navy would have far less trouble protecting it than the hundreds of kilometers of spread out roads they have now. Even without taking the center of Kyiv, a Russian pincer where the North and South forces met would have cut off military supplies to the whole East. Russia would probably not have needed to control the whole Eastern half of Ukraine to force a favorable peace deal.

Instead, Ukraine is about to push the Russians out of Ukraine west of the Dnieper in the south. The bridges in the middle of the country over the Dnieper will continue to supply eastern Ukrainian forces and allow troop movement back and forth.

The morale advantage of a first major successful push is fairly obvious. What is less obvious but more important is the Ukrainian army learning that Russian forces don’t appear to defend any better than they attack. While that may seem par for the course from what we are learning about the state of the Russian Army, it’s not automatic. Slow advances can be an aggressor incrementally taking position after position, fortifying them against counter-attack and using it as a firebase for the next move. Even with a less methodical attack, it’s possible the Russians might have focused their conscripts’ limited training on setting up proper defensive positions while using better trained troops to lead the attacks. Now, the Ukrainian army can begin to calibrate the optimal force amounts needed to overcome a Russian position. It appears from first glance the Ukrainians may not need as many forces to crack Russian positions. This is important as while from a military perspective they shouldn’t rush, from a perspective of getting the Russians to stop killing civilians in the eastern cities, time is of the essence. The Ukrainians need to continue their solid military tactics, but they can now try attacks which previously seemed a little too risky. Overestimating your enemy can be as dangerous as underestimating them.

Finally, cutting off forces headed to Kryvyi Rih would be yet another blow to Russian numbers while consolidating Ukrainian positions. As I mentioned in a previous article, the Ukrainians have an ideal central position to defend from with short lines of communication. (And by communication, the military term refers to freedom for forces to move unmolested, not that they are laying down telephone wires as the modern usage of the word might imply). This means they can move their forces around more easily and concentrate them for critical battles to achieve local numerical superiority. Every time a Russian force can be cut off and eliminated, it frees up the local Ukrainian defending force to join the mobile force and make the next attack stronger.

The next big action to watch for will be around Kherson again. How the Russians prepare for the defense of it will indicate if we are headed towards a long static war or quick rout of Russia. If Russia is unable to hold the river crossing then they will most likely lose Crimea. If they can’t properly defend a river, I doubt they’ve had the foresight to set up proper defense at the isthmus. And there should be a counter-offensive around Kyiv to look out for. Hard to know when as it depends heavily on force information that’s hard to come by. But it’s just too important to leave unattended for too long. A successful rout of Russian forces around Kyiv could possibly force a pullback of all Russian troops to pre-2014 borders. At some point they would be risking the annihilation of a significant portion of the Russian Army.

Good fight today, Ukraine! Keep it up!


https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...as-a-bigger-day-for-Ukraine-than-many-realize
 
Russia's equipment loss is CATASTROPHIC and about to get worse

Yeah- the gas for the field canteen stoves didn't show. They had to eat cold chow.

To borrow from ' The Dirty Dozen '- they've ALWAYS eaten cold chow.



Haw, haw......................................haw.
 
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