Rationalist
Hail Voltaire
Here's why.
Today, a poll was released that shows 1 in 5 Ohioans have already voted. Of this 20%, Obama leads 63 to 37%.
Initially, this seems pretty daunting. How will Romney overcome this? Here's how. In order for Romney to win Ohio, he would need to take around 52.6% of election day voters. Third party candidates will probably receive around 1.5% collectively, leaving 45.9% for Obama. When combining these figures with the early votes, Romney would have 49.48% to Obama's 49.32%, a separation of around 8,600 votes (assuming the same number of people vote as in 2008, which is probably a good assumption). In this scenario, Romney needs a 6.7 percent advantage amongst election day voters.
Here's the kicker: as is the case in most swing states, Romney holds a significant advantage amongst day-of voters -- approximately 10%. Assuming Romney can pull day-of voters by a margin of even 7%, he will most certainly win Ohio and most likely the Presidency with it.
Based on these figures, I think the fact that Obama is leading 63 - 37 amongst early voters is actually a bad sign for the President. I predict that Romney will win Ohio. It won't be a landslide, but it will be decisive.
Today, a poll was released that shows 1 in 5 Ohioans have already voted. Of this 20%, Obama leads 63 to 37%.
Initially, this seems pretty daunting. How will Romney overcome this? Here's how. In order for Romney to win Ohio, he would need to take around 52.6% of election day voters. Third party candidates will probably receive around 1.5% collectively, leaving 45.9% for Obama. When combining these figures with the early votes, Romney would have 49.48% to Obama's 49.32%, a separation of around 8,600 votes (assuming the same number of people vote as in 2008, which is probably a good assumption). In this scenario, Romney needs a 6.7 percent advantage amongst election day voters.
Here's the kicker: as is the case in most swing states, Romney holds a significant advantage amongst day-of voters -- approximately 10%. Assuming Romney can pull day-of voters by a margin of even 7%, he will most certainly win Ohio and most likely the Presidency with it.
Based on these figures, I think the fact that Obama is leading 63 - 37 amongst early voters is actually a bad sign for the President. I predict that Romney will win Ohio. It won't be a landslide, but it will be decisive.
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