Romney will win Ohio

[Rationalist]

Here's why.

Today, a poll was released that shows 1 in 5 Ohioans have already voted. Of this 20%, Obama leads 63 to 37%.

Initially, this seems pretty daunting. How will Romney overcome this? Here's how. In order for Romney to win Ohio, he would need to take around 52.6% of election day voters. Third party candidates will probably receive around 1.5% collectively, leaving 45.9% for Obama. When combining these figures with the early votes, Romney would have 49.48% to Obama's 49.32%, a separation of around 8,600 votes (assuming the same number of people vote as in 2008, which is probably a good assumption). In this scenario, Romney needs a 6.7 percent advantage amongst election day voters.

Here's the kicker: as is the case in most swing states, Romney holds a significant advantage amongst day-of voters -- approximately 10%. Assuming Romney can pull day-of voters by a margin of even 7%, he will most certainly win Ohio and most likely the Presidency with it.

Based on these figures, I think the fact that Obama is leading 63 - 37 amongst early voters is actually a bad sign for the President. I predict that Romney will win Ohio. It won't be a landslide, but it will be decisive.

 

[Rationalist]

Corrected some errors in my math. It looks good now.

 

[canceled.2021.1]

Here's why.

Today, a poll was released that shows 1 in 5 Ohioans have already voted. Of this 20%, Obama leads 63 to 37%.

Initially, this seems pretty daunting. How will Romney overcome this? Here's how. In order for Romney to win Ohio, he would need to take around 52.6% of election day voters. Third party candidates will probably receive around 1.5% collectively, leaving 45.9% for Obama. When combining these figures with the early votes, Romney would have 49.48% to Obama's 49.32%, a separation of around 8,600 votes (assuming the same number of people vote as in 2008, which is probably a good assumption). In this scenario, Romney needs a 6.7 percent advantage amongst election day voters.

Here's the kicker: as is the case in most swing states, Romney holds a significant advantage amongst day-of voters -- approximately 10%. Assuming Romney can pull day-of voters by a margin of even 7%, he will most certainly win Ohio and most likely the Presidency with it.

Based on these figures, I think the fact that Obama is leading 63 - 37 amongst early voters is actually a bad sign for the President. I predict that Romney will win Ohio. It won't be a landslide, but it will be decisive.

Based on where it sits today, I think Romney wins Ohio as well. I have never heard of them reporting early voting results before. Seems a little dishonest to me. Personally I think early voting should be banned.

Romney is going to have to win by at least 5% to keep the dems from cheating and/or crying foul themselves and dragging the thing into court ala Algore

 

[Rationalist]

Based on where it sits today, I think Romney wins Ohio as well. I have never heard of them reporting early voting results before. Seems a little dishonest to me. Personally I think early voting should be banned.

I agree.

Romney is going to have to win by at least 5% to keep the dems from cheating and/or crying foul themselves and dragging the thing into court ala Algore

Good point. Ever since Bush v. Gore, I don't think the Dems have ever "lost" an election involving a recount. Norm Coleman and Dino Rossi both come to mind.