cancel2 2022
Canceled
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Remainers continue to bemoan the supposedly sad state of Brexit Britain. They have a point. Even many true Brexiteer believers admit that, so far, it has hardly lived up to what was promised.
But if these same Remainers cast an honest eye across the Channel to their beloved European Union, they’d soon realise it is in an even worse state than we are.
Not that this is any great consolation. Six years after that famous Brexit referendum, the EU remains by far our biggest export market for our goods and services. If things go wrong there, they go wrong here. And the EU is about to go very badly wrong.
It is now on the brink of recession and another Eurozone currency crisis looms. It’s a double whammy that will be all the more painful and prolonged because of President Putin’s mounting blackmail over Russian energy supplies, which threatens to condemn Europe’s major economies to a slump.
Of course, the EU has survived setbacks in the past from the first Eurozone crisis in 2011-12 to the migrant crisis of 2015.
But not without great economic pain (including mass unemployment among young folk) and much political disruption.
Now it faces the biggest crisis of all at a time when it is entirely bereft of leadership. Its much-vaunted unity in the face of adversity will be tested to the limit. It’s already beginning to crack.
The European Central Bank belatedly increased interest rates this week for the first time in 11 years, way behind the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve, both of which have been raising rates for some time now. It is too little, too late.
The euro has already slumped to parity with the dollar and Eurozone inflation averages 8.6 per cent and rising (it’s now 10 per cent in Spain, 12 per cent in Greece and 20 per cent in Estonia).
Much of the EU is in the grip of stagflation. As inflation soars, growth in the three biggest economies — Germany, France and Italy — has slowed or stalled.
Of course, the EU has survived setbacks in the past from the first Eurozone crisis in 2011-12 to the migrant crisis of 2015.
But not without great economic pain (including mass unemployment among young folk) and much political disruption.
Now it faces the biggest crisis of all at a time when it is entirely bereft of leadership. Its much-vaunted unity in the face of adversity will be tested to the limit. It’s already beginning to crack.
The European Central Bank belatedly increased interest rates this week for the first time in 11 years, way behind the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve, both of which have been raising rates for some time now. It is too little, too late.
The euro has already slumped to parity with the dollar and Eurozone inflation averages 8.6 per cent and rising (it’s now 10 per cent in Spain, 12 per cent in Greece and 20 per cent in Estonia).
Much of the EU is in the grip of stagflation. As inflation soars, growth in the three biggest economies — Germany, France and Italy — has slowed or stalled.
Germany is run by an unstable, inexperienced coalition of social democrats, greens and liberals headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who looks and sounds if he would be more at home managing the high-street branch of your local bank
A full-blown downturn beckons, especially if Putin turns off the Russian gas taps.
He’s already closed down one major pipeline and this week he reopened another that had been closed for maintenance, but at only a trickle.
The EU is already talking about energy rationing, with industry taking the brunt of the shortages. In Germany, rationing could be a reality before the Christmas trees go up.
Huge swathes of German industry would have to close or go on part-time working. Europe’s economic powerhouse would grind to a halt — and with it the rest of Europe.
The continent’s political leadership is in no state to deal with these challenges. Germany is run by an unstable, inexperienced coalition of social democrats, greens and liberals headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who looks and sounds if he would be more at home managing the high-street branch of your local bank.
Emmanuel Macron appears destined to see out his second term as a lame-duck president now that the French parliament is being held hostage by forces from the far Right and far Left. Italy has resorted to its default position of not being run by anybody. Mario Draghi, its technocratic prime minister — a former president of the European Central Bank (ECB) — has resigned over coalition squabbles.
Fresh elections are scheduled for the end of September, when those expected to do best are the hard-Right League and the far-Right Brothers of Italy.
The League is led by Matteo Salvini, who has praised Putin as a statesman and was once photographed in Red Square with Putin’s image on his T-shirt.
The Brothers of Italy is descended from Mussolini’s fascists. It is also, according to the latest polls, currently Italy’s most popular party. Both parties are replete with Putin-lovers.
Those who think the threat of Right-wing nativist-nationalist populists with a penchant for the Kremlin is over in Europe have another thing coming. Inflation can do strange, unpleasant things to democratic policies — and inflation has only started to bite.
The latest political crisis in Italy could easily trigger a second Eurozone crisis.
The ECB (under German pressure) is now winding back its printing of money, which means it cannot so easily buy up the massive sovereign debt Rome issues every year.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11040599/ANDREW-NEIL-EU-thats-staring-abyss.html
Remainers continue to bemoan the supposedly sad state of Brexit Britain. They have a point. Even many true Brexiteer believers admit that, so far, it has hardly lived up to what was promised.
But if these same Remainers cast an honest eye across the Channel to their beloved European Union, they’d soon realise it is in an even worse state than we are.
Not that this is any great consolation. Six years after that famous Brexit referendum, the EU remains by far our biggest export market for our goods and services. If things go wrong there, they go wrong here. And the EU is about to go very badly wrong.
It is now on the brink of recession and another Eurozone currency crisis looms. It’s a double whammy that will be all the more painful and prolonged because of President Putin’s mounting blackmail over Russian energy supplies, which threatens to condemn Europe’s major economies to a slump.
Of course, the EU has survived setbacks in the past from the first Eurozone crisis in 2011-12 to the migrant crisis of 2015.
But not without great economic pain (including mass unemployment among young folk) and much political disruption.
Now it faces the biggest crisis of all at a time when it is entirely bereft of leadership. Its much-vaunted unity in the face of adversity will be tested to the limit. It’s already beginning to crack.
The European Central Bank belatedly increased interest rates this week for the first time in 11 years, way behind the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve, both of which have been raising rates for some time now. It is too little, too late.
The euro has already slumped to parity with the dollar and Eurozone inflation averages 8.6 per cent and rising (it’s now 10 per cent in Spain, 12 per cent in Greece and 20 per cent in Estonia).
Much of the EU is in the grip of stagflation. As inflation soars, growth in the three biggest economies — Germany, France and Italy — has slowed or stalled.
Of course, the EU has survived setbacks in the past from the first Eurozone crisis in 2011-12 to the migrant crisis of 2015.
But not without great economic pain (including mass unemployment among young folk) and much political disruption.
Now it faces the biggest crisis of all at a time when it is entirely bereft of leadership. Its much-vaunted unity in the face of adversity will be tested to the limit. It’s already beginning to crack.
The European Central Bank belatedly increased interest rates this week for the first time in 11 years, way behind the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve, both of which have been raising rates for some time now. It is too little, too late.
The euro has already slumped to parity with the dollar and Eurozone inflation averages 8.6 per cent and rising (it’s now 10 per cent in Spain, 12 per cent in Greece and 20 per cent in Estonia).
Much of the EU is in the grip of stagflation. As inflation soars, growth in the three biggest economies — Germany, France and Italy — has slowed or stalled.
Germany is run by an unstable, inexperienced coalition of social democrats, greens and liberals headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who looks and sounds if he would be more at home managing the high-street branch of your local bank
A full-blown downturn beckons, especially if Putin turns off the Russian gas taps.
He’s already closed down one major pipeline and this week he reopened another that had been closed for maintenance, but at only a trickle.
The EU is already talking about energy rationing, with industry taking the brunt of the shortages. In Germany, rationing could be a reality before the Christmas trees go up.
Huge swathes of German industry would have to close or go on part-time working. Europe’s economic powerhouse would grind to a halt — and with it the rest of Europe.
The continent’s political leadership is in no state to deal with these challenges. Germany is run by an unstable, inexperienced coalition of social democrats, greens and liberals headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who looks and sounds if he would be more at home managing the high-street branch of your local bank.
Emmanuel Macron appears destined to see out his second term as a lame-duck president now that the French parliament is being held hostage by forces from the far Right and far Left. Italy has resorted to its default position of not being run by anybody. Mario Draghi, its technocratic prime minister — a former president of the European Central Bank (ECB) — has resigned over coalition squabbles.
Fresh elections are scheduled for the end of September, when those expected to do best are the hard-Right League and the far-Right Brothers of Italy.
The League is led by Matteo Salvini, who has praised Putin as a statesman and was once photographed in Red Square with Putin’s image on his T-shirt.
The Brothers of Italy is descended from Mussolini’s fascists. It is also, according to the latest polls, currently Italy’s most popular party. Both parties are replete with Putin-lovers.
Those who think the threat of Right-wing nativist-nationalist populists with a penchant for the Kremlin is over in Europe have another thing coming. Inflation can do strange, unpleasant things to democratic policies — and inflation has only started to bite.
The latest political crisis in Italy could easily trigger a second Eurozone crisis.
The ECB (under German pressure) is now winding back its printing of money, which means it cannot so easily buy up the massive sovereign debt Rome issues every year.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11040599/ANDREW-NEIL-EU-thats-staring-abyss.html
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