Ramming healthcare thru via reconciliation?

[Bonestorm]

so all those motions for cloture when the Dems were in a minority... what was that?

Those were attempted filibusters as well. I believe we were engaging in a discussion about the frequency of use of the filibuster. If you compare the frequency of use when the Democrats were in the minority with the frequency of use with the Republicans in the minority you will see that the Republicans use the filibuster far far more often than the Democrats and far far more often than any time in recent history. Here's a chart:

 

[Onceler]

The GOP is earning their rep as "the party of no."

They're not interested in "starting over." They're not interested in "heathcare." They're not interested in compromise.

They're interested in winning the next 2 elections.

 

[Damocles]

I understand what you're saying, I'm just telling you that no one is talking about passing the entire healthcare reform bill through the reconciliation process. Reconciliation doesn't even come up unless and until the House passes the Senate bill.

However, if the House passes a bill that is different than the Senate version the bills have to go through the Conference process in order to make the bills match. So. In order to get to the reconciliation process the House must pass the exact Senate Bill and the Congressmen and Congresswomen have to trust the Senate to "fix" the bill all while knowing they are surrendering their Congressional seat.

Because of this I think it is unlikely without the exact same type of back door "deals" that have made the populace so hacked off at the current Congress and the President. Somebody will make them famous, and it won't be good for the D party at all.

If the Rs were only interested in "winning elections" they'd support the Ds efforts to hurt their future chances in elections, however they are interested in doing the right thing and working on a bill that people can support.

 

[Damocles]

Those were attempted filibusters as well. I believe we were engaging in a discussion about the frequency of use of the filibuster. If you compare the frequency of use when the Democrats were in the minority with the frequency of use with the Republicans in the minority you will see that the Republicans use the filibuster far far more often than the Democrats and far far more often than any time in recent history. Here's a chart:

The main and largest difference is the super majority. The only power the superminority has is the filibuster, and that is often impossible to invoke without some support from members of the supermajority.

If you note what it was like before the Rs took control, when there was more of a balance, the filibuster wasn't invoked nearly as much. It is pretensive to say that all things were and have always been equal. When you are in the superminority your options are more limited. The Ds didn't just "take control" they took a supermajority.

 

[Bonestorm]

However, if the House passes a bill that is different than the Senate version the bills have to go through the Conference process in order to make the bills match. So. In order to get to the reconciliation process the House must pass the exact Senate Bill and the Congressmen and Congresswomen have to trust the Senate to "fix" the bill all while knowing they are surrendering their Congressional seat.

I understand all of that, except for the "surrendering their Congressional seat" part. There is no downside to voting for the Senate bill for those that already voted in favor of the House bill. They'll get hammered either way. They might as well have something to show for it.

Because of this I think it is unlikely without the exact same type of back door "deals" that have made the populace so hacked off at the current Congress and the President.

A new bill is not possible in the Senate with Republicans having 41 seats regardless of what types of deal are cut. It's just not possible. And the Democrats cannot pass the entire healthcare reform through reconciliation. It just doesn't work. Kent Conrad explained this just the other day.

That's why the only viable option is for the House to pass the Senate bill, then the House passes a reconciliation bill to make the changes they want, then the Senate passes the reconciliation bill. It may of may not happen, but this is the only way forward.

 

[Damocles]

I understand all of that, except for the "surrendering their Congressional seat" part. There is no downside to voting for the Senate bill for those that already voted in favor of the House bill. They'll get hammered either way. They might as well have something to show for it.



A new bill is not possible in the Senate with Republicans having 41 seats regardless of what types of deal are cut. It's just not possible. And the Democrats cannot pass the entire healthcare reform through reconciliation. It just doesn't work. Kent Conrad explained this just the other day.

That's why the only viable option is for the House to pass the Senate bill, then the House passes a reconciliation bill to make the changes they want, then the Senate passes the reconciliation bill. It may of may not happen, but this is the only way forward.

Right, so in order to get the Senate Bill passed Pelosi will have to resort to direct graft, creating the same problem that made this one so unpopular to begin with. Good legislation doesn't need nearly this much graft. Remember the Congressional version passed with exactly one vote. Only one. Can you imagine the amount of arm twisting she needs to do.

Some of these people will be willing to attempt to save their seat by not going against their constituency. The reality is the bloodbath will be worse if this gets through, exactly for the reasons I stated.

And again, if the Rs just wanted to do nothing at all they wouldn't be fighting this so hard. It would be better for them if all they were thinking about was winning the next two elections to shut up and let y'all kill your own chances and gain more seats.

 

[Bonestorm]

The main and largest difference is the super majority. The only power the superminority has is the filibuster, and that is often impossible to invoke without some support from members of the supermajority.

If you note what it was like before the Rs took control, when there was more of a balance, the filibuster wasn't invoked nearly as much. It is pretensive to say that all things were and have always been equal. When you are in the superminority your options are more limited. The Ds didn't just "take control" they took a supermajority.

But that ignores that the Republicans broke filibuster records, utilizing it far more than any previous Senate, before the Democrats had a supermajority. That chart doesn't even include the current 111th Congress where the Republican use of the filibuster broke their previous records.

 

[Onceler]

"If the Rs were only interested in "winning elections" they'd support the Ds efforts to hurt their future chances in elections, however they are interested in doing the right thing and working on a bill that people can support. "

I love how naive this is...

 

[Bonestorm]

Right, so in order to get the Senate Bill passed Pelosi will have to resort to direct graft, creating the same problem that made this one so unpopular to begin with. Good legislation doesn't need nearly this much graft. Remember the Congressional version passed with exactly one vote. Only one. Can you imagine the amount of arm twisting she needs to do.

Some of these people will be willing to attempt to save their seat by not going against their constituency.

Actually, the plan for the reconciliation bill is to strip out much of the bullshit that was required to get to 60 in the Senate, not to increase "graft." We'll see how it goes.

 

[Damocles]

But that ignores that the Republicans broke filibuster records, utilizing it far more than any previous Senate, before the Democrats had a supermajority. That chart doesn't even include the current 111th Congress where the Republican use of the filibuster broke their previous records.

Right, before the Rs took control they were in the minority but not a superminority, at that time they were not invoking filibuster to get things done nearly as often, because they were not in a superminority. This was my point. At this time Reid was more willing to shut them down. How the majority acts drives the action of the minority.

 

[Bonestorm]

Right, before the Rs took control they were in the minority but not a superminority, at that time they were not invoking filibuster to get things done nearly as often, because they were not in a superminority. This was my point.

That wasn't your point. You misread the chart. You obviously thought that the chart showing the Republican abuse of the filibuster reflected their time as a "superminority" rather than their time as an ordinary minority party. Nice backtracking bullshit, though.

 

[Onceler]

The current Congress is on track to break the filibuster record for any Congress, by quite a wide margin.

There is no way to spin that.

 

[Damocles]

Actually, the plan for the reconciliation bill is to strip out much of the bullshit that was required to get to 60 in the Senate, not to increase "graft." We'll see how it goes.

Again, to get them to vote for the crap that was added to the Senate Bill, and understand that you can't "fix" everything, only budget items, with reconciliation, they'll not be voting for this without some serious personal graft.

The very real necessity to get people who barely supported the Congressional bill by one vote to agree to this will create the necessity for some very heavy hands on Pelosi's part.

 

[Damocles]

The current Congress is on track to break the filibuster record for any Congress, by quite a wide margin.

There is no way to spin that.

It isn't "spin" to point out the differences. The reality is how the majority acts effects the actions of the minority. It is silly to blame the minority for exercising their only real power if the majority shuts them down from any other venue.

 

[Bonestorm]

Again, to get them to vote for the crap that was added to the Senate Bill, and understand that you can't "fix" everything, only budget items, with reconciliation, they'll not be voting for this without some serious personal graft.

The very real necessity to get people who barely supported the Congressional bill by one vote to agree to this will create the necessity for some very heavy hands on Pelosi's part.

So you say. I love how you lay the groundwork for the next Republican attack. Get your talking points early on this one?

First, it's "reconciliation is the nuclear option." When that doesn't work, it's "well, not really the nuclear option, but reconciliation is not meant to be used to pass such huge bills." Then, when that doesn't work you go with the an attack that isn't so east to prove demonstrably false: the graft attack.

Nice work, Damo. How much do you get paid for this stuff?

 

[Damocles]

So you say. I love how you lay the groundwork for the next Republican attack. Get your talking points early on this one?

First, it's "reconciliation is the nuclear option." When that doesn't work, it's "well, not really the nuclear option, but reconciliation is not meant to be used to pass such huge bills." Then, when that doesn't work you go with the an attack that isn't so east to prove demonstrably false: the graft attack.

Nice work, Damo. How much do you get paid for this stuff?

If they become talking points they will be getting them from me. And if you can find even one post of mine that says "nuclear option" and "reconciliation" in the same post without saying "they aren't the same thing" then you are changing the post in a quote box.

 

[Onceler]

It isn't "spin" to point out the differences. The reality is how the majority acts effects the actions of the minority. It is silly to blame the minority for exercising their only real power if the majority shuts them down from any other venue.

That's pathetic.

The GOP filibusters more, and they get away with it more, because they are better at marketing, period. They're better at marketing when they do it, and they're better at portraying the Dems as obstructionists when the Dems do it.

It wasn't 'exercising their only real power' when the Dems did it, and you know it. Your apologism is embarassing.

 

[Bonestorm]

It isn't "spin" to point out the differences. The reality is how the majority acts effects the actions of the minority. It is silly to blame the minority for exercising their only real power if the majority shuts them down from any other venue.

Total bullshit and demonstrably so. The chart above reflects that the Republicans used the filibuster far more than any time in modern history while there was a Republican president who could just veto any bills that the Republicans didn't like. It's not that the Republicans had no other options. They're just obstructionists, plain and simple.

 

[Bonestorm]

If they become talking points they will be getting them from me. And if you can find even one post of mine that says "nuclear option" and "reconciliation" in the same post without saying "they aren't the same thing" then you are changing the post in a quote box.

How much are you paid for this crap?

 

[Damocles]

That's pathetic.

The GOP filibusters more, and they get away with it more, because they are better at marketing, period. They're better at marketing when they do it, and they're better at portraying the Dems as obstructionists when the Dems do it.

It wasn't 'exercising their only real power' when the Dems did it, and you know it. Your apologism is embarassing.

Again, weak excuses from the party with the supermajority. They couldn't even filibuster without your party's permission.