Nate Silver on Trump and Republicans

[cawacko]

Oh you believe the fantasy polls put out by loser Romney and the GOP establishment. Both of those are only in this to drain delegates from Trump.

Kasich is only still in it to prevent Trump form winning Ohio. Trump already has a double digit lead in Florida.

Talking about the general vs. Hillary my man.

 

[USFREEDOM911]

This isn't Trump hate it's just political reality. I do not disagree with you in any way that both parties should change. What causes political parties to change however is losing power. The Republican Party could be in the middle of a big change right now or it could be a blip on the radar. Time will answer that for us.

And what is your stand going to be, if they don't lose?

 

[cawacko]

And what is your stand going to be, if they don't lose?

Are you asking if parties will change if they win? If forced to bet I would say no.

Edit: Did you have a (or multiple) specific example in mind of a party winning then changing?

 

[USFREEDOM911]

Are you asking if parties will change if they win? If forced to bet I would say no.

Edit: Did you have a (or multiple) specific example in mind of a party winning then changing?

Obviously you just want to argue and have no desire to move forward.
Since you appear to be content with the way that the political parties, except for the Republicans; I guess there will be no complaints, in the future, about the DNC.

 

[cawacko]

Obviously you just want to argue and have no desire to move forward.
Since you appear to be content with the way that the political parties, except for the Republicans; I guess there will be no complaints, in the future, about the DNC.

I would love to see the DNC change. Do I think they will do so if Hillary wins or because of Trump? No, I don't. I say that because it's my belief/opinion, not because I'm trying to argue.

I've been wrong plenty of times before and I could be wrong now but like I said, I think political parties change after they lose.

 

[USFREEDOM911]

I would love to see the DNC change. Do I think they will do so if Hillary wins or because of Trump? No, I don't. I say that because it's my belief/opinion, not because I'm trying to argue.

I've been wrong plenty of times before and I could be wrong now but like I said, I think political parties change after they lose.

The reason I'm saying that Trump could cause both parties to change, is because of the support he's getting and maybe, just maybe, both parties will realize that they need to get off of their "it's about me" ideas, return to doing what the voters want to have done, and get rid of the voters just agreeing with what the politicians do.

 

[philly rabbit]

Last week you were just bragging about the number of "brown entitlement seekers" Trump got to vote for him.

Blue collar workers maintain their dignity by WORKING. They don't free load on everybody else. They are patriotic because they work, they therefore contribute to the good of the country.

The game plan of amnesty for millions of illegals only takes more money from the pockets of working Americans. This is why your party needs to become the party of the American working man and woman.

 

[cawacko]

The reason I'm saying that Trump could cause both parties to change, is because of the support he's getting and maybe, just maybe, both parties will realize that they need to get off of their "it's about me" ideas, return to doing what the voters want to have done, and get rid of the voters just agreeing with what the politicians do.

I've seen the argument made the Republicans need to focus more on the working class and less on the Koch Brothers class. Liberals have been making the argument, such as in 'What's the Matter with Kansas', that Republicans use cultural issues to get working class white voters to 'vote against their own interest'.

If immigration is a person's key issue the (white) working class voter is in a tough position. Liberals obviously love bringing in minorities from across the globe as they know it increases their base of voters. Economic studies show immigration and trade increase the U.S.'s economic GDP and wealth so your white collar Republicans support it, along with businesses that love the cheaper immigrant labor. So it leaves this block of working class (whites) that may lean Republican because of cultural issues but don't necessarily feel at home in either party. Clearly Trump has tapped into many of them.

The question then is how big can that movement grow? We know the demographics in this country are changing and while white working class voters represent a proportionate block they are nowhere near a majority. So while they can conceivably break out on their own they can't win an election nationally on their own.

Maybe the result going forward will be the Republican Party becomes less supply side oriented and less free trade oriented?

 

[Airstrip One]

The Whig Party was very protectionist, which is presumably why it had a cross-regional voter base until it was crushed by the slavery issue. I used to see some major advocates for "Fair Trade" on my campus, and have heard for years, from people on the left and right, about the need to essentially return to protectionist platforms. You also hear a lot of advocates for major internal improvements programs.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a push for tariffs against China, with all of its duplicity in digital industrial espionage (and military) used to justify it. They would push for a bill to repair roads, bridges, dams, tunnels, etc., and there would likely be a law targeting the hiring of illegals.

 

[USFREEDOM911]

I've seen the argument made the Republicans need to focus more on the working class and less on the Koch Brothers class. Liberals have been making the argument, such as in 'What's the Matter with Kansas', that Republicans use cultural issues to get working class white voters to 'vote against their own interest'.

If immigration is a person's key issue the (white) working class voter is in a tough position. Liberals obviously love bringing in minorities from across the globe as they know it increases their base of voters. Economic studies show immigration and trade increase the U.S.'s economic GDP and wealth so your white collar Republicans support it, along with businesses that love the cheaper immigrant labor. So it leaves this block of working class (whites) that may lean Republican because of cultural issues but don't necessarily feel at home in either party. Clearly Trump has tapped into many of them.

The question then is how big can that movement grow? We know the demographics in this country are changing and while white working class voters represent a proportionate block they are nowhere near a majority. So while they can conceivably break out on their own they can't win an election nationally on their own.

Maybe the result going forward will be the Republican Party becomes less supply side oriented and less free trade oriented?

And all you seem to want to do, is post what the Republican's should or need to do; but for some reason you continue to avoid anything about the liberals changing.

 

[Airstrip One]

The leftists won't ever change.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

the thing is the intensity for trump supporters is also sky high.. there is a large amount of enthusiasm in his base. I am sure part of the unsatisfied numbers also have to do with the fact that the establishment republicans are in no hurry to start getting republicans rallying behind him. I mean it's unreal strategically that you have someone like romney today come out blasting someone who is very likely going to be the republican nominee. What trump is in the middle of is a hostile takeover of the republican establishment and the establishment republicans are terrified of that. I honestly think most establishment republicans would rather have Clinton be president.

There is a reason why big money donates to both sides. Do you think those uber rich elite care about social issues like affirmative action? They can send their kids to any private school they want and buy their way into elite universities. Do you think they really care about guns or even gay marriage? No.. not really. With clinton they'll have a pragmatist semi-neocon who will gladly bow to special interests and invade whatever countries they want.

The whole GOP is just blowing the fuck up. This is some house of cards level shit. It's awesome lol.

yes it it is awesome. Not only is it providing some incredible comedy but this could turn out to be a one time historical event in which we see a political realignment and possibly the disintegration of a major political party.

For almost 50 year we have had this liberal vs. conservative paradigm in US politics in which working class Americans have aligned themselves with plutocrats who have sold them down the river and ethnic minorities and the college educated allied with plutocrat lights who have sold them down the the river.

So will we see the political paradigm switch from liberal vs. conservative to what it has traditionally been? Free market elites vs. a populist coalition?

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I think you're spot on about the passion for Trump from his supporters. I'm sure Romney's speech today only made that passion grow. But there aren't enough of them, imo, to win a national election. And like you said, if enough establishment Republicans don't want Trump he's not going to get enough cross over appeal to win.

You know you sound like my wife. If I tell her "grass is green" she's like "yeah, yeah" but if one of her friends says that she's like "Oh really? Wow you're right!".

Point being I, and others, have been telling you that for several months now.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I believe that this has shaken the liberals up also; because if they don't beat Trump they're afraid that they'll never be able to regain their base, no matter how much they promise to give to people.

What have you been smoking? The Dems, though they have their own smaller populist revolt to worry about, have been largely sitting back and enjoying themselves immensely watching their rivals disintegrate by means of a circular firing squad and laughing their asses off. I know I have. The GOP debates and primaries have been hugely entertaining.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

So you don't think that the DNC is looking at Trump, his numbers, and thinking, "Maybe we need to rethink how we present ourselves"?

Hell no! They are laughing all the way to the bank. Trump has rolled up the GOP with only 35% of Primary GOP voters. That hardly inspires confidence in the GOP. In fact the GOP is shitting itself in fear that if Trump or Cruz gets nominated the GOP will lose. Nor does it promote fear in Democrats. Laughter yes...fear no.

Will the Dems make the same mistake the GOP made in regards to Trump? No they will not as Trump has truly driven H.L. Menkens point home. No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I would love to see the DNC change. Do I think they will do so if Hillary wins or because of Trump? No, I don't. I say that because it's my belief/opinion, not because I'm trying to argue.

I've been wrong plenty of times before and I could be wrong now but like I said, I think political parties change after they lose.

Not always. The Whigs didn't disintegrate due to losing elections but because of internal conflict and factionalism over the slavery issue. Some of that is going on here too with both parties. There are large factions in both parties who are currently driving change and winning/losing past elections hasn't really played a major factor. Look at the data, the GOP won the last election cycle. The Dems won the previous POTUS cycle.

The Dems have probably as many pissed off constituents clamoring for change as the GOP has and they lost the last election cycle. Rather shoots down your theory. Bernie has tapped into a well spring of pissed of voters just like Trump has.

So what's the difference? Why is the GOP disintegrating and the Dems are business as usual? I would argue there is a greater degree of internal conflict and factionalism within the GOP.

 

[cawacko]

You know you sound like my wife. If I tell her "grass is green" she's like "yeah, yeah" but if one of her friends says that she's like "Oh really? Wow you're right!".

Point being I, and others, have been telling you that for several months now.

I've been saying it from day one so you are behind the eight ball sir. Unless you'd like to show me a post where i said otherwise

 

[cawacko]

Not always. The Whigs didn't disintegrate due to losing elections but because of internal conflict and factionalism over the slavery issue. Some of that is going on here too with both parties. There are large factions in both parties who are currently driving change and winning/losing past elections hasn't really played a major factor. Look at the data, the GOP won the last election cycle. The Dems won the previous POTUS cycle.

The Dems have probably as many pissed off constituents clamoring for change as the GOP has and they lost the last election cycle. Rather shoots down your theory. Bernie has tapped into a well spring of pissed of voters just like Trump has.

So what's the difference? Why is the GOP disintegrating and the Dems are business as usual? I would argue there is a greater degree of internal conflict and factionalism within the GOP.

What's the change in the DNC? Voters may be pissed off but what's the change? Hillary may have moved to the left during the primary but we haven't seen how she would govern yet as President so you can't claim I'm wrong.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

What's the change in the DNC? Voters may be pissed off but what's the change? Hillary may have moved to the left during the primary but we haven't seen how she would govern yet as President so you can't claim I'm wrong.

Change isn't the point. You're claim is that losing elections drives changes within political coalitions and I've given you evidence that this is not always the case and that it isn't the case with the current disintegration of the GOP coalition.

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

‘This Will Be The End Of Trump’s Campaign,’ Says Increasingly Nervous Man For Seventh Time This Year

SALISBURY, MD—Repeating identical comments he had made in June, July, August, September, and twice in November, increasingly nervous local man Aaron Howe responded to Donald Trump’s call to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. Monday by once again stating this would be the end of the Republican frontrunner’s campaign, sources confirmed.

“Well, that’s it—you just can’t say those kinds of things and expect to be taken seriously any longer,” said an anxious Howe, his voice quavering slightly as he spoke aloud the very same words he had previously uttered in reaction to remarks about Mexicans, women, the disabled, former POW John McCain, and a number of other targeted parties.

“That’s the final nail in the coffin right there. There’s no way he’s coming back from this one.”

At press time, a visibly tense Howe was steadily amassing the angst and exasperation that would be unleashed in his seventh expletive-filled exclamation of the year when he catches sight of the newest set of GOP poll numbers.

lol.

http://www.theonion.com/article/will-be-end-trumps-campaign-says-increasingly-nerv-52002
(i posted the whole thing)