My election prediction!

Joe Hiden said:
your prediction that is based on a sophomoric analysis?

not worth the time

Why don't you just quote 538?
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Here's Brad* in late October 2016:


Brad* said:
Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court!
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Joe Hiden said:
you are too funny

why don't you try the "double dog dare ya"?

Have you see all of the analysis I have done breaking down bogus polls? That is being data driven you dumb fuck. Unlike you I am smart enough to dig into the polls and understand the methodology and the internals. All you can do is parrot the top line numbers with no in depth analysis. If that is what passes for fact driven in your world then have at it.

You are barking up the wrong tree with me puddin
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If you say so... I hope you are pretty, because God should have given you something.
 
Brad* has apparently learned nothing from his circuit around the boulevard of broken dreams.


Brad* said:
I am okay with the Roberts Court, its great progress from previous courts, but not as good as what it will be after the second Clinton Administration. We might could get rid of Citizens United.
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Brad* said:
So, this Monday or Tuesday we will hear the big anouncement that Tim Pawlente has been tapped to be on the Romney ticket in the VP slot.

This is my prediction, Its not a lock but I feel like its my best educated projection.

In the wake of the Sara Barracuda disaster of last presidental election coupled with Romney's more cautious style it makes sence that the choice is narrowed down to Pawlente or Portman. It appears General Petraus has said no. Mischigan is all but necessary for Romney to pull together an electoral victory.

Pawlente is slightly less booring than Portman... And there you have it...


Romney Pawlente, anounced Tuesday....

Any different predictions?
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:thinking:
 
Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
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So about a week has gone by since my prediction. There has been little movement in the polling data, other than Ohio. It appears Ohio currently is in the Biden camp, more so than North Carolina or Florida anyway. That was a suprise that was not factored into my prediction.

Tonight is the first debate, and maybe that will shake things up, but its been so stable I think it would have to be pretty big... We will see.

No October suprise yet, but its not October yet.

For now, I am still comfortable with my prediction.

Change my mind?!?
 
Jarod said:
So about a week has gone by since my prediction. There has been little movement in the polling data, other than Ohio. It appears Ohio currently is in the Biden camp, more so than North Carolina or Florida anyway. That was a suprise that was not factored into my prediction.

Tonight is the first debate, and maybe that will shake things up, but its been so stable I think it would have to be pretty big... We will see.

No October suprise yet, but its not October yet.

For now, I am still comfortable with my prediction.

Change my mind?!?
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Okay, its been another week.

I am back to update the prediction.

When we left last week the debate was looming and there had not been an October suprise. The amount that has happened in one week is insane, and yet the numbers are somewhat stable. There seems to have been a noticeable shift further toward Biden after the debate, both Nationally and in the Midwest "Swing States". ("Swing states" is in quotes, because they dont seem to be swinging much). All in all it appears the debate was a win for Biden considering the polling shift in his favor. Thats all old news, although new since my last update.

Now the October suprise. Trump* claims to have contracted and beaten Covid-19. He was airlifted to the hospital and three days later airlifted out. Many in the White House circle are infected. Trump* seems to not take the threat of spreading his infection seriously but claims new strength having "beaten" the virus. Some polling data has come out since Trump went to the hospital but none since he has discharged himself. The little bit of data we have shows more shift to Biden, but that is only a very small bit of data so the jury is still out on his this might affect the race.

All in all, I am more confident in my prediction, but there are almost 30 days left, and that's a lot. As we saw in the last week, a lot can happen, so hold on.

I guess nobody wants to argue with me about my prediction, (Gee I wonder why...) But that's okay, Ill try to update again in a week or so.
 
Jarod said:
Okay, its been another week.

I am back to update the prediction.

When we left last week the debate was looming and there had not been an October suprise. The amount that has happened in one week is insane, and yet the numbers are somewhat stable. There seems to have been a noticeable shift further toward Biden after the debate, both Nationally and in the Midwest "Swing States". ("Swing states" is in quotes, because they dont seem to be swinging much). All in all it appears the debate was a win for Biden considering the polling shift in his favor. Thats all old news, although new since my last update.

Now the October suprise. Trump* claims to have contracted and beaten Covid-19. He was airlifted to the hospital and three days later airlifted out. Many in the White House circle are infected. Trump* seems to not take the threat of spreading his infection seriously but claims new strength having "beaten" the virus. Some polling data has come out since Trump went to the hospital but none since he has discharged himself. The little bit of data we have shows more shift to Biden, but that is only a very small bit of data so the jury is still out on his this might affect the race.

All in all, I am more confident in my prediction, but there are almost 30 days left, and that's a lot. As we saw in the last week, a lot can happen, so hold on.

I guess nobody wants to argue with me about my prediction, (Gee I wonder why...) But that's okay, Ill try to update again in a week or so.
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I think Biden takes it with between 350 and 413 electoral votes.
 
LV426 said:
I think Biden takes it with between 350 and 413 electoral votes.
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That seems optimistic, but I hope you are correct, we need Trump* to face a resounding defeat. They need to see that he is a miserable failure. Trumpism* needs to be crushed. If the way he has handled Covid has the effect I think it should (I doubt it will) Biden would get 400+ easy.

I think Biden will likely get at least 308 electoral votes. Looks like he will sweep the Great Lakes region.
 
Jarod said:
Okay, its been another week.

I am back to update the prediction.

When we left last week the debate was looming and there had not been an October suprise. The amount that has happened in one week is insane, and yet the numbers are somewhat stable. There seems to have been a noticeable shift further toward Biden after the debate, both Nationally and in the Midwest "Swing States". ("Swing states" is in quotes, because they dont seem to be swinging much). All in all it appears the debate was a win for Biden considering the polling shift in his favor. Thats all old news, although new since my last update.

Now the October suprise. Trump* claims to have contracted and beaten Covid-19. He was airlifted to the hospital and three days later airlifted out. Many in the White House circle are infected. Trump* seems to not take the threat of spreading his infection seriously but claims new strength having "beaten" the virus. Some polling data has come out since Trump went to the hospital but none since he has discharged himself. The little bit of data we have shows more shift to Biden, but that is only a very small bit of data so the jury is still out on his this might affect the race.

All in all, I am more confident in my prediction, but there are almost 30 days left, and that's a lot. As we saw in the last week, a lot can happen, so hold on.

I guess nobody wants to argue with me about my prediction, (Gee I wonder why...) But that's okay, Ill try to update again in a week or so.
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Figured they would run...
 
Another week has passed, and it looks even better for Biden. What strikes me about this election is how consistent the polling data has been. While constantly and slowly increasing, Biden's trajectory has been steady for many weeks now. Even with dramatic events, like the stories about Trump calling the military names, the NYT reveal of Trump*s financial situation, the death of RGB and Trumps Covid infection... the trend in the polling data has barely budged. This consistency, very different than in 2016 is one thing lending me toward confidence of my prediction. There are 21 days left, and a lot can happen, but I am not sure there is much that is more dramatic that what we have already seen. For sure Trump* has something up his sleeve, but will it have any effect? I guess we will see.

A second thing lending toward confidence is the numbers in the Great Lakes region. Specifically Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. All four states were long considered the battleground where this election is going to be decided, and in fact, if Biden wins all four, I just cant imagine a reasonable scenario where he does not win the presidency. Right wing terrorists tried to kidnap the governor of Michigan and yet the polls have remained steady. Biden's home state of Pennsylvania has slowly and consistently moved in his direction. Minnesota is solid blue and Wisconsin seems like its staying blue also. Not a single creditable national expert has any of these states anything but Blue. Throwing out the polls that are directly paid for and admittedly biased toward one party or another the data on these states is as follows:

Michigan is polling between a 6 and 11 point advantage for Biden.
Minnesota is polling between a 6 and 16 point advantage for Biden.
Wisconsin is polling between a 2 and a 10 point advantage for Biden.
Pennsylvania is polling between a 5 and a 13 point advantage for Biden.

There is talk about Ohio, Florida and North Carolina going for Biden, but my point is he does not need it if these states remain where they have been for months.

Without winning one of these four states I just do not see a reasonable Trump path to victory.

21 days is a long time in presidential politics and the end of a campaign tends to bring things strongly into focus, we might have another debate and who knows what else may come up. As I see it today, I am sticking with my prediction of a Biden win, but who knows. Show me a reasonable scenario where Trump* wins without any of those four states.
 
Okay, its been another week. We are two weeks away from election day. I voted yesterday.

I was at an early voting place yesterday. When I arrived at 6:50 A.M. the line snaked way into the parking lot and it was pouring rain. The line was over an hour to get inside, then another 20 mins to vote. That is anecdotal evidence, and who knows exactly what it might mean. Remember Palm Beach County is the most liberal county in Florida.

Looking at the polls today, I see the possibility that there are some early signs that the race might be tightening in Pennsylvania and Florida. If this holds up I finally see a path for Trump* whereby he could eak out a win. If Trump* wins Pennsylvania, all the toss up states and Arizona, he would be reelected. So I am not predicting a Trump* win, but I am seeing the possibility of a lane opening up for him to get a win. It would take a nationwide shift of three to four points that show up in Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona.

I still think Biden is most likely to win.

The difference today is that I do see the possibility that Trump* is in striking if the new polls are confirmed to be a trend in the coming days.
 
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