Musk has 58 times as much money.
I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th
- Thread starter Walt
- Start date
IBDaMann
Well-known member
Nostradamus fallacy. I still believe that a flock of birds will be spotted flying south over a body of water, with a storm brewing in the east.
Musk has 58 times the bubble as Soros.
My predictions are specific. They might be right, or they might be wrong. When investing, we make predictions about the future.
IBDaMann
Well-known member
Your "prophecy" is totally vague. You have a lot of doom and gloom to define. Let's look.
"I still believe there will be a crash, followed by a rise with double digit inflation."
What constitutes a "crash"? A one point drop? What constitutes a "rise"? A one point jump? On what respective dates will the crash and rise happen, on which the double-digit inflation will begin?
If my "prophecy" comes true, it is specific enough to make me a lot of money.
I would predict a 20+% drop in the overall market. Probably closer to 40%, if the inflation does not start hitting before the crash.
With double digit inflation, we would expect at least a 10% rise in the market... But I would guess much higher. The market is a good place to hide from inflation, and there will be a lot of money needing hiding.
And that is the question. When will the retail investors run out of money to prop up the markets? I am guessing one to two years. A lot of other people I trust are saying the same thing.
In 1929, the stock market tripled... Before dropping by 90%. Testing new highs in an unstable market is often comes right before the crash.
Will you agree the US was bankrupt in 1929 and needed a world war to destroy the global economy? Funny that the US is bankrupt once again almost 100 years to the date.
No. The government had few large debts, and was able to service them easily. That is not bankruptcy.
No, we did not need a world war.
We have a lot more debt now, so you would think we are in bankruptcy now, but not then. That being said, back then we needed to pay back the debt in gold, which is limited. Now we need to pay back the debt in Dollars, which the US Government creates from nothing.
In neither case were we even close to bankruptcy.
You're pulling shit out of both sides of your ass. The US is bankrupt and needs a nuclear WW3.
A nuclear WWIII would be devastating to the economy. It would kill a large part of the American people, and thus the American economy. The people left would be in teams which were missing most of the team, so would be ineffective. It would be worse than the Fall of the Western Roman Empire, the Mongol Invasion of the West, and the Bronze Age Collapse combined. I cannot think of a worse economic disaster.