Musk has 58 times as much money.
I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th
- Thread starter Walt
- Start date
IBDaMann
Well-known member
Nostradamus fallacy. I still believe that a flock of birds will be spotted flying south over a body of water, with a storm brewing in the east.
Musk has 58 times the bubble as Soros.
My predictions are specific. They might be right, or they might be wrong. When investing, we make predictions about the future.
IBDaMann
Well-known member
Your "prophecy" is totally vague. You have a lot of doom and gloom to define. Let's look.
"I still believe there will be a crash, followed by a rise with double digit inflation."
What constitutes a "crash"? A one point drop? What constitutes a "rise"? A one point jump? On what respective dates will the crash and rise happen, on which the double-digit inflation will begin?
If my "prophecy" comes true, it is specific enough to make me a lot of money.
I would predict a 20+% drop in the overall market. Probably closer to 40%, if the inflation does not start hitting before the crash.
With double digit inflation, we would expect at least a 10% rise in the market... But I would guess much higher. The market is a good place to hide from inflation, and there will be a lot of money needing hiding.
And that is the question. When will the retail investors run out of money to prop up the markets? I am guessing one to two years. A lot of other people I trust are saying the same thing.
In 1929, the stock market tripled... Before dropping by 90%. Testing new highs in an unstable market is often comes right before the crash.
Will you agree the US was bankrupt in 1929 and needed a world war to destroy the global economy? Funny that the US is bankrupt once again almost 100 years to the date.
No. The government had few large debts, and was able to service them easily. That is not bankruptcy.
No, we did not need a world war.
We have a lot more debt now, so you would think we are in bankruptcy now, but not then. That being said, back then we needed to pay back the debt in gold, which is limited. Now we need to pay back the debt in Dollars, which the US Government creates from nothing.
In neither case were we even close to bankruptcy.
You're pulling shit out of both sides of your ass. The US is bankrupt and needs a nuclear WW3.
A nuclear WWIII would be devastating to the economy. It would kill a large part of the American people, and thus the American economy. The people left would be in teams which were missing most of the team, so would be ineffective. It would be worse than the Fall of the Western Roman Empire, the Mongol Invasion of the West, and the Bronze Age Collapse combined. I cannot think of a worse economic disaster.
The west went from slavery to feudalism and then capitalism which led to globalism. Nothing stays the same with the exception of money being funneled from the working class up to the ruling class. I want to believe this is about to change.
During the first half of feudalism, most peasants never saw a single piece of money in their lives. Obviously, most (but not all) slaves never had any access to money.
Today, most Americans spend money several times a day. Where past generations rarely had access to meat(once or twice a year if they were lucky), we can eat it all day. Where they would rarely hear music, I can hear almost any music ever recorded. I could go on, but I think you get the point.
YOU MAY ARGUE I AM A GLUTTON FOR PUNISHMENT, but...
I have a bid for some SPY 9/18/2026 $545 Puts. My bids are a bit below the highest bid, so the market will have to come down in price a few percent for me to do this. Basically, I am predicting a 20% drop from current prices by September of next year(right before elections)... Or will be if the options come down in price by a few percent.
I have a bid for some SPY 9/18/2026 $545 Puts. My bids are a bit below the highest bid, so the market will have to come down in price a few percent for me to do this. Basically, I am predicting a 20% drop from current prices by September of next year(right before elections)... Or will be if the options come down in price by a few percent.
Into the Night
Verified User
I am laughing at you, Wally. The S&P is currently at 6587 and has been climbing since you made this post.I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th, and I put my money where my mouth is. I have bought a bunch of SPY puts centering around a strike price of $500, all expiring on September 30th. If the S&P goes down to around 4,000, I will make quite a bit of money.
If the S&P 500 stays above 5,000, then you can laugh at me
Into the Night
Verified User
Wally, people don't ask for your financial advice for obvious reasons.
It did sink down once, and I could have walked away with a profit, but I thought there would be a bigger profit.
The reality is I have run out of time. That being said, I can buy more time, it will just cost more money.
I cannot think of a worse economic disaster, so you respond with something you think we will chose that will be a worse economic disaster? Why would we do it if it would be a worse economic disaster than losing most of America's population?
Rejecting fiat currency would be unworkable, but would not be worse than losing a huge number of people. The people and infrastructure would still exist, even without the fiat currency. We would just have to figure out a way to pay them all without money.
There really is not enough gold, or whatever to keep the modern economy working. We would have to find another solution, which is not even beginning to come to me.