Ahhh the set it and forget it approach.
You know it is kind of funny. If all people have to do is put their money into SPY and sit on it, why is there even a need for financial advisors? Seems like a pointless career to me
I know we have spiraled into a bit of the "financial adviser" role, and that is the last thing I would want to do for anyone online - there are probably billions of "investment advice" posts online from anonymous strangers, and if someone really did figure it out, they would bottle it, we would drink it and we would all be billionaires. What is incontrovertible, however, is math and some mathematical principles apply here that are really quite simple to grasp.
When I said "don't touch it", I did not mean "set and forget it" - far from it. In layman's terms, I meant "don't withdraw from the ATM" - let the investment compound and do not sell small parts of it to go buy a Harley or Winnebago. You are stunting or destroying the whole elegant curve of exponential growth, and that is what separates a half-assed day trader from someone who might actually have an impressive portfolio over time. Unlike casino gambling, you actually have pretty iron-clad economic growth on your side the longer you stay at the table (provided we don't enter some Islamist-inspired dark ages anytime soon).
I also mentioned "balancing your portfolio". This is where perhaps the savvy and the "trial and error" come in - if you indeed hold 70% of what you invest in equities, not all equities (or more likely, funds with equities) are created equal. Personally, I
balance what I have about once a month (barring oddities in financial markets), maybe spending a few hours with the collected thoughts I have and the opinions of others I might value. There is no magic formula, but we all have a different risk profile, understanding of investments, and perhaps sophistication in knowing what the numbers really mean. A shift from Mid-Caps to internationals. Maybe you overweight mining stocks. Maybe you like North American tech. It can be as simple as a reasoned hunch, or it can get into more sophisticated understandings of individual stock risk premiums. As you learn more, you get the math more, and you make smarter decisions in the long term.
Which takes us to the SPY - you can do
a lot worse than dumping your money there and saying "peace out". You are essentially betting on the corporate profits of large American companies, and we are good at trimming dead weight at rewarding our shareholders (unless perhaps you are GM). And yes,
indexed funds are taking an increasingly larger share of the US investment pie over
managed funds - they are often more stable and most importantly,
they have low fees. Instead of giving 1% annually to a international growth fund picking esoteric investments, the Vanguard SP500 takes .17% and invests in the most ironclad thing out there - America's biggest companies. As I mentioned earlier, there is a mathematical imperative to invest outside of one single investment, but there is nothing wrong with making this the biggest part of your pie.
Paying somebody to manage for you is stupid - unless you are extremely rich, legitimately have no time to manage or deep interest in your assets, are under IRS investigation, or are trying to hide assets from your soon to be ex wife.
The point is, Mott is a smart man, but he is not a partner at a Hedge Fund, and should not invest like one. Nor, like you said, should he buy into simplistic slogans about the stock market and just trust the hidden hand of Adam Smith. A 70/30 split of equities and fixed income is a great long-term, risk averse investment strategy, and letting that slide on occasion to 65-35 or 75-25 is no biggie. Shit, buy a house on the side if you get the loan, but treat that as a risky field bet - far better to just buy the performance of people who do that for a living through a REIT. Don't pay some dipshit who went to a 6 week class to manage your money - you are giving him a percentage of your portfolio every year to end up buying whatever shitty mutual fund his regional manager has a quota to sell.