Democrats in trouble?

Jarod said:
A couple days ago I read an great article in the thriving NYT. The article described how the writer saw the political landscape shifting under the Kavanaugh hearings such that helped the Republicans in the Senate and the Democrats in the House. It appears that today the newest batch of polling data is bearing that our. Specific and crucial Senate votes... Missouri, Nevada and Texas specifically. The Republicans were more laid back about this election and they are now angry.

So, their is still a month to go.

We have two broad scenarios ahead of us. Kavanaugh is confirmed or he is not. It seems to me the Republican anger is likely to subside if Kavanaugh is confirmed and the Democratic anger will be stoked that one who many believe to be a serial abuser of woman will be on the Court. For political reasons I suspect the Democrats hope he is not confirmed, yet still the candidates in the Conservative States will be forced to take a side.

My net perspective is that at this point Kavanaugh is helping the Republicans.

I feel fairly certain the Republicans will gain one or two seats in the Senate and lose about 20 in the House. That is as it stands today, but the ground is shifting and who knows where we will stand in November.
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Democrats are such wimpys. Always have been. Wimpdom is why republicans control everything.

So republicans are energized by Kavanaugh .. so what? It's not about how large their army is, it's about how large is yours.

Weeks before Midterms, Independents Vastly Outnumber Party Members

In the latest Gallup poll taken from August 1-12, 2018, independents outnumbered members of either major party by at least 15 percentage points, but politicians continue to tailor their messages for the most extreme wings of a polarized two-party system.

As of August, just three months before the contentious 2018 midterm elections, 28 percent of registered voters are Republicans, 27 percent of respondents say they are Democrats, and 43 percent identify themselves as political independents.

The problem isn’t only in messaging during campaign season. In a government dominated by the two-party system for most of its history, policymaking is fraught with the extreme polarization of partisan politics and the 43 percent of voters who are independent are expected by the two-party system to quietly endure as the “silent plurality.”
https://ivn.us/2018/09/14/weeks-midterms-independents-vastly-outnumber-party-members/

Where do independents lean?

Independent voters a major headache for the GOP as midterm elections loom
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...eadache-for-the-gop-as-midterm-elections-loom

Win the independents .. you win the election.
 
Thing1 said:
If the Dems don't take the House, that would be huge for the GOP. I sort of cringe thinking about Trump's gloat-fest if that happened, but the lack of checks on his power would be worse.
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It will def be a colossal failure on the Dems part if they don't take the House.
 
Thing1 said:
When was the last time more Americans didn't vote Democrat in a national election?
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Who cares? Again, if certain parts of the country have massive disparities, then 'more' might vote Dem. But who wins the close races? The ones that are actually contests? Who attracts the Independents?

No one cares if Dems win CA by 4 million votes. Or NY by 3 million. We already know that is going to happen.
 
Healthcare Is The No. 1 Issue For Voters; A New Poll Reveals Which Healthcare Issue Matters Most

https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Frobertpearl%2Ffiles%2F2018%2F08%2FJuly-Reader-Survey_Voting_8.9.18-1-1200x675.jpg


Notice a pattern here? All of these healthcare issues come down to one thing: money.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertpearl/2018/08/13/midterms/#5a69eb563667

If republicans are celebrating with women, healthcare, and the rejection of Trump all staring them in the face .. good luck with that.
 
TTQ64 said:
sigh......lots of white women voted for dump.

Like I said "And if they are actually voting for them...….that says a lot about white America".

Blacks aren't voting for these racist pigs. So therefore, it's white America and lots of them are republican how else are they staying in office?
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Sadly you're right!
 
TTQ64 said:
Of course he's going to be confirmed.

Wealthy, racist, rapist, white males are in charge of the country and there's nothing we can do about it.

It's going to get worse.
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Sadly you're right!If the Republicans hold the house and Senate next month.
America is DOA
 
blackascoal said:
For Rick Scott, Tons Of Cash And 8 Years As Governor Might Not Be Enough To Beat Nelson
Obamacare, guns and red tide could help give Bill Nelson a fourth term in U.S. Senate

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...orida-senate-race_us_5bb52c35e4b01470d04e0b2e

Are democrats in trouble .. or are republicans?
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Wierdly; Florida Dept of Agriculture actually does the enforcement for the red tide blooms

The Republican guy that won the primary actually beat the guy who was Ag Secretary .
So the dude (Putnam) that is responsible actually got beaten.

Inside baseball....but to your point that socialist guy has held a narrow lead in the governor race as well.

I personally think it's all going to hinge on the new PuertoRico peeps that will vote or not.
They vote Dem
 
anatta said:
Wierdly; Florida Dept of Agriculture actually does the enforcement for the red tide blooms

The Republican guy that won the primary actually beat the guy who was Ag Secretary .
So the dude (Putnam) that is responsible actually got beaten.

Inside baseball....but to your point that socialist guy has held a narrow lead in the governor race as well.

I personally think it's all going to hinge on the new PuertoRico peeps that will vote or not.
They vote Dem
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I agree with much of that .. including hinging on the Puerto Rican vote and how fervently they turn out..

However, Scott can't escape the red tide.

Red Tide Protesters Drive Florida Gov. Rick Scott From Campaign Stop
“Red Tide Rick has got to go,” shouted demonstrators as waves of dead fish buried beaches.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...rom-campaign-stop_us_5ba0759de4b04d32ebfbee7f
 
Thing1 said:
Personally, I don't like one party in power either way. I've been consistent on this.

We always see too far of a lurch left or right, depending on who it is. The country is more center; I'm more center.
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I love that you believe that you are center. Cracks me up
 
Thing1 said:
What point? You're always going to see things from the hyper-partisan right-wing perspective.

Watch what happens if he gets confirmed. We'll know soon enough who has the right call on this one.
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I accept, for everyone on the right, your surrender.

Please report to the nearest re-education camp.

:evilnod:
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Oh yes....Democrats way over played their hand.

It's mostly men who have been angered and understandably so. The appearance that a persons career and reputation can be completely ruined by just the mere allegation of sexual misconduct, with out corroborating evidence is extremely, very frightening.

So the three ring circus is impacting the upcoming Midterms as it appears the attacks by Democrats on Kavanaugh have turned into a circular firing squad.

Now having said that I have no sympathy for Kavanaugh. He played that card when he was part of Ken Starr's brain trust during the Whitewater investigation, an egregious abuse of power if ever there was one, now that he's getting the same treatment he gave to others he's crying "Foul". Well that just falls on deaf ears with me. He should have thought about that when he was needlessly destroying the careers and reputations of innocent people as a member of a runaway partisan hit mob to take down a siting President.
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My wife doesn't like Trump; but can't explain why. :dunno:

But when we talked about these "accusation", she had to admit that she would never want such a thing to happen to anyone in the family; because she does think that accusations need to be supported by factual evidence.
 
Teflon Don said:
The whole blue wave thing was always manufactured bullshit

Republicans at least Trump supporters ALWAYS had a reason to turn out and that is because Trump was keeping his promises.

What Kavanaugh did was engage Trump haters who might have stayed home and actually turned off democrats.

The calculation now is “if this is how democrats act out of power, what the fuck will they do with it”

Again Trump has played them.

I think it is better than 50:50 that Manchin and Heitkamp vote for Kavanaugh at this point.

It will be a real embarrassment for the democrat party if vulnerable dems like McCaskill and Tester reverse course. They are in a real bind now

I think there is a good chance that if Schumer can’t hold the line on democrat defectors that the dem base gets demoralized.

The dems could not have played this worse.
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Heitkamp has nothing to lose; she has seen the polls and knows this is her last term. She said she will be voting no.
 
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