It's not contradictory. You are showing prices in rural area
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You said that a variety of factors impact prices. I agree.
So you did read what I posted.
I asked what you believe is the PRIMARY cause.
I prefer not to opine on a subject I'm not expert in.
Here's what @Grok says:
Oil price speculation influences U.S. gasoline prices primarily through the futures markets, where it can amplify or accelerate price increases that then flow through to the pump. However, economists are divided on how much speculation causes sustained rises versus simply reflecting or amplifying real supply/demand fundamentals (like geopolitical disruptions, OPEC decisions, or inventory levels). The mechanism is well-established, but its net impact is debated.
Crude oil is the largest single component of retail gasoline prices in the U.S.—typically accounting for about 50–60% of the price at the pump (with the rest from refining, distribution, marketing, and taxes).
Oil is priced globally on futures exchanges: The main benchmarks are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). These are paper contracts for future delivery of oil, not immediate physical barrels. Traders—including speculators (hedge funds, investment banks, and other non-commercial players)—buy and sell these contracts in huge volumes, often without ever taking physical delivery. Speculators bet on price direction: When speculators anticipate higher prices (e.g., due to news of tensions in the Middle East, supply risks, or inflation), they buy large numbers of futures contracts. This increased buying pressure bids up futures prices. Speculative trading volume often dwarfs actual physical oil transactions, so the "paper" market heavily influences the physical spot market (immediate oil prices).
Futures prices set the benchmark for real oil: Refiners, producers, and wholesalers use these futures prices (and related spot prices) as the basis for purchasing physical crude. Higher futures → higher spot crude costs → higher input costs for U.S. refineries.
Costs pass through to gasoline: Refiners blend crude into gasoline. Elevated crude costs raise production expenses, which are passed along the supply chain to distributors, retailers, and ultimately consumers at the pump. Gasoline futures (also traded) follow the same pattern.
In short, speculation creates additional "demand" in the futures market that pushes up the price signal, even if physical supply and demand haven't shifted dramatically. Some analyses (especially from advocacy groups) have quantified this as a "speculative premium"—for example, older studies estimated it added $0.75–$0.83 per gallon during past spikes. Traders and speculators have amplified the move through heavy hedging and betting on further rises, with futures showing "speculative fervor."
Even without major physical shortages this has helped push WTI crude above $90/barrel and gasoline futures higher.
The U.S. is now a net oil exporter with strong domestic production (shale, etc.), but prices still follow the global market—so domestic output doesn't fully insulate consumers.
In practice, speculation tends to exacerbate short-term swings rather than being the root cause of multi-year trends. Regulations (e.g., CFTC position limits) exist to curb excessive activity, but outright bans are rare because speculators play a useful role in efficient markets.Bottom line: Speculation raises gasoline prices in the U.S. by inflating futures benchmarks that refiners and the supply chain follow. It has likely contributed to recent increases alongside real-world events, but it doesn't operate in a vacuum. If you're seeing higher prices at the pump right now, many factors are at play. For the latest data, check EIA.gov or AAA for retail trends.
