Comey's gift to the smug "we know the electorate better than you do" crowd

Thing1 said:
I have said that Trump won the election fair & square, and he did. But enough w/ this whole "you Democrats had better learn a lesson about the electorate" thing. And enough from the Grinds of the board about how anyone who called Hillary "should never make predictions again," as though Trump was a done deal all along.

Hillary is now up over a million in the popular vote tally. She lost key states by the thinnest of margins:
WI by 30,000 out of 3 million
MI by 11,000 out of 5 million
FL by 110,000 out of 9 million
PA by 65,000 out of 6 million

The final early voting and election day voting was characterized by 2 important factors: low turnout for Democrats, and Republicans "going back home" to the party and voting Trump.

Hmmmmm....what could have caused that, I wonder? With Hillary holding a fairly insurmountable lead 11 days out...what ever could have changed so many minds and created this dynamic?

Enough already. Enough w/ this "we understand the electorate and you don't." Enough w/ the "you still don't get it, do you?" You got extremely lucky, in a country where the demographics are changing rapidly in the Democrat's favor. The only "understanding" we really have about the electorate is that Hillary's scandals and negatives were too much to overcome in this cycle.
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sorry but no, you are still an idiot. these thin margin victories WERE accounted for in analysis, especially by nate silve. He wrote many times that the popular vote lead being off by just 1 or 2 points could lead to a trump victory, but you and your kind kept acting as if it was 100% locked up. You were still wrong, still didn't know how to analyze politics, didn't understand statistics. Trump had a 30% chance of winning. This is some of the 30%. You are not able to properly analyze these things. that is a fact.
 
as though Trump was a done deal all along.
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you still don't get it, it seems. You have grossly misinterpreted my words on the matter. At no point have I said people should have assumed a trump victory. My quarrel is not with those that assigned a favorable chance of clinton winning, my issue is with those (of whom they are many) assumed she was a lock to win. That is just retard level thinking.
 
Mr. Meeseeks said:
sorry but no, you are still an idiot. these thin margin victories WERE accounted for in analysis, especially by nate silve. He wrote many times that the popular vote lead being off by just 1 or 2 points could lead to a trump victory, but you and your kind kept acting as if it was 100% locked up. You were still wrong, still didn't know how to analyze politics, didn't understand statistics. Trump had a 30% chance of winning. This is some of the 30%. You are not able to properly analyze these things. that is a fact.
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Nah; I still had it right. I was 100% that Hillary was going to win until the Comey news. As soon as that came out on the Friday, I was posting on here that she'd lose.

On the day before, I was surprised by the fact that she kept her lead in most polls, so went back to thinking she'd pull it out. But you're wrong about where I stood, and I would have been 100% spot on without Comey.

I'll continue to make predictions, confidently.
 
Thing1 said:
Nah; I still had it right. I was 100% that Hillary was going to win until the Comey news. As soon as that came out on the Friday, I was posting on here that she'd lose.

On the day before, I was surprised by the fact that she kept her lead in most polls, so went back to thinking she'd pull it out. But you're wrong about where I stood, and I would have been 100% spot on without Comey.

I'll continue to make predictions, confidently.
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But Hillary never had a 100% chance lol. Not even close to that.

How many times did you whiff on Trump? Did you predict he would win the primaries?
 
no, the problem is you still didn't understand basic numbers. You didn't understand that the final polls on the national lead is often off by 3pts in various directions, and that could easily be drawn to a hillary loss (pre-comey), you didn't understand that un-decideds would break heavily for trump, something I often talked about on here. And you would routinely say that someone alienating women the way trump does could never be president, and you were wrong on that as well. Trump also did better with blacks than romney did, and as far as I know he held with hispanics (though you are claiming that's changing.. i haven't see that yet)
 
Mr. Meeseeks said:
no, the problem is you still didn't understand basic numbers. You didn't understand that the final polls on the national lead is often off by 3pts in various directions, and that could easily be drawn to a hillary loss (pre-comey), you didn't understand that un-decideds would break heavily for trump, something I often talked about on here. And you would routinely say that someone alienating women the way trump does could never be president, and you were wrong on that as well. Trump also did better with blacks than romney did, and as far as I know he held with hispanics (though you are claiming that's changing.. i haven't see that yet)
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Many undecideds broke for Trump because of Comey. I admit I was wrong about Trump's comments regarding women, but I always overestimate the intelligence of the electorate.

I heard discussion on the Latino #'s last night on one of the cable discussions. I'll find some back-up on that.
 
evince said:
good thing you trashed her with right wing lies all election
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Now that is hilarious.....desh is blaming Thingy for Hillary's loss....

Thingy, you're one bad ass dude....powerful enough to swing an election and win it for Trump......lmao
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I suggest you just chill and wait until 2020 to make your predictions.......you did poorly enough when you were only a few months out.....
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No I didn't. I called Hillary with the caveat of an "October Surprise." As soon as Comey's letter came out, I said she'd lose.

I didn't do anything completely idiotic like call MI for Romney.
 
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