First of all, we are not in the worst recession of all time. We might be barely in a recession, or maybe not.
The oversimplified definition of a recession is two GDP declines in a row. There was a minor decline reported in the first quarter, and on July 28th, we may hear there was another minor decline. We will not hear there was a huge decline in either quarter, and almost certainly we will hear of an upward revision in the first quarter. There might not have been a decline at all in the first quarter.
The NBER, and other economists look at more than just the GDP, and right now there are some strange things happening to the GDP. In 2001, there were not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and yet there was a recession. Other statistics pointed to a recession, so the overall economy was declared in recession. The reverse can easily happen.
GDP is the older statistic, but GDI (Gross Domestic Income) is usually considered slightly better. Product and income should match up perfectly, but call upon slightly different statistics, and therefore always differ slightly. Right now they differ greatly.
GDI shows positive growth in the first quarter. That means that GDP will be revised upwards for the first quarter. It may not end up positive, but it will definitely end up higher. It also means the economy is doing better than the not that bad that the GDP shows.
https://www.economist.com/finance-a...understates-the-strength-of-americas-recovery
https://www.economist.com/united-st...erica-may-officially-avoid-a-downturn-for-now
The oversimplified definition of a recession is two GDP declines in a row. There was a minor decline reported in the first quarter, and on July 28th, we may hear there was another minor decline. We will not hear there was a huge decline in either quarter, and almost certainly we will hear of an upward revision in the first quarter. There might not have been a decline at all in the first quarter.
The NBER, and other economists look at more than just the GDP, and right now there are some strange things happening to the GDP. In 2001, there were not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and yet there was a recession. Other statistics pointed to a recession, so the overall economy was declared in recession. The reverse can easily happen.
GDP is the older statistic, but GDI (Gross Domestic Income) is usually considered slightly better. Product and income should match up perfectly, but call upon slightly different statistics, and therefore always differ slightly. Right now they differ greatly.
GDI shows positive growth in the first quarter. That means that GDP will be revised upwards for the first quarter. It may not end up positive, but it will definitely end up higher. It also means the economy is doing better than the not that bad that the GDP shows.
https://www.economist.com/finance-a...understates-the-strength-of-americas-recovery
https://www.economist.com/united-st...erica-may-officially-avoid-a-downturn-for-now


