Alt right putting out some stupid statements about whether we are in a recession

We're in two consecutive quarters of negative growth you lying faggot which is why the illegitimate Orwellian Biden junta is trying to redefine the definition of recession get fucked retard

We do not know that. The first quarter will almost certainly be revised up, and the second quarter has not come out yet. The GDP oversimplified definition might barely be met, or might not.

Back in 2001, we had a recession without two negative GDP growth quarters, because GDP is not the only number they look at. A lot of the other numbers make the GDP look inaccurate right now. None of this is new.
 
Last time I checked, it was Slick Willy who balanced the budget and came out with a surplus for the country at the end of his second term.

The Shrub pissed it all away on a bogus war/occupation on Iraq, in addition to bringing back reaganomics in full force.

Obama inherits an economic shit storm and a hostile GOP Congress who would rather see the country burn rather than give him any props. Despite this, Obama leaves office with an economy on the upswing (not great, but not bad either).

Dump comes in and just keeps the Reaganomics train going.

To me, this current "slump" or "mini-recession" was heavily contributed by the Covid lockdown. You can't blame Biden for a virus, now can you?
 
All indications are that there will be heavy bloodletting of white collar corporate bloat....people who have long contributed little, and whos jobs can be done cheaper someplace else.
 
Right wing economic ideas always cause most people pain in the end



All the facts show that



Someday everyone will realize it even while evil entities like fox lie about it

So-called right wing repukes have always been a disaster on the domestic and global economy at adding trillions to the national debt and waging war on the worker while hopping in the whore bed with their corporate partners and other special interests groups at giving them huge tax breaks and enabling their abuse against the working and middle class and less fortunate. This while GOPers give the working and middle class the shaft with huge tax hikes in order to offset the effects of their corrupt graft:

U.S. economic performance under Democratic and Republican presidents
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Historically, the United States economy has performed better on average under the administration of Democratic presidents than Republican presidents since World War II. The reasons for this are debated, and the observation applies to economic variables including job creation, GDP growth, stock market returns, personal income growth and corporate profits. The unemployment rate has fallen on average under Democratic presidents, while it has risen on average under Republican presidents. Budget deficits relative to the size of the economy were lower on average for Democratic presidents.[1][2] Ten of the eleven U.S. recessions between 1953 and 2020 began under Republican presidents.[3]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_under_Democratic_and_Republican_presidents

Data: The GOP tax cut plan is tilted to the rich | Opinion
With a startling $9.2 billion budget surplus, legislators in St. Paul are locked in a debate about what to do with the money. Gov. Tim Walz and the DFL have proposed a mix of spending and one-time rebates, while Republicans have their eyes set on permanent tax cuts. The centerpiece of the GOP tax cut proposals is a $2.8 billion plan to slash the tax rate on the lowest income bracket nearly in half, from 5.35 to 2.8 percent. They have also proposed eliminating all taxes on Social Security.

Republicans have attempted to sell their ideas as a benefit to the working class, but the reality is that they will exclude Minnesota’s lowest-income residents, and the majority of the money will go to high-income taxpayers. Why is this the case, and to what extent do these ideas benefit the rich over the poor?

Let’s start with the income tax cut.

Because Minnesota exempts the first several thousand dollars of income from taxation, most of Minnesota’s lowest-earning taxpayers will not benefit from the Republican plan. Estimating based on the latest available IRS data, well over 500,000 working households will be excluded from the Republican tax cut entirely, while many more will receive a smaller cut because they do not earn enough to receive the maximum. The table below shows how much income is needed to receive any benefit from the GOP tax cut, as well as how much is required to receive the maximum."
https://minnesotareformer.com/2022/...e-gop-tax-cut-plan-benefits-the-rich-opinion/

THE COVID MONEY TRAIL
Republican states are trying to use federal covid aid to cut taxes
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/07/05/republicans-tax-cuts-stimulus/

The top 20 states with the largest gdp and economic growth are not a majority of red states but mainly blue or purple states (on average a even margin of democrats and republicans thus purple):

List of U.S. states and territories by GDP
This is a list of U.S. states and territories by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This article presents the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia and their nominal GDP at current prices.

The data source for the list is the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in 2021. The BEA defined GDP by state as "the sum of value added from all industries in the state."[1]

Nominal GDP does not take into account differences in the cost of living in different countries, and the results can vary greatly from one year to another based on fluctuations in the exchange rates of the country's currency. Such fluctuations may change a country's ranking from one year to the next, even though they often make little or no difference in the standard of living of its population.[2]

Overall, in the calendar year 2021, the United States' Nominal GDP at Current Prices totaled at $23.00 Trillion, as compared to $20.89 Trillion in 2020.

The three U.S. states with the highest GDPs were California ($3.36 Trillion), Texas ($1.99 Trillion), and New York ($1.85 Trillion). The three U.S. states with the lowest GDPs were Vermont ($36.1 Billion), Wyoming ($41.6 Billion), and Alaska ($55.0 Billion)."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP
 
How do you call a recession in February, what two quarters were their negative growth?

The recession starts at the beginning of the negative growth. So if you believe we are in a recession now, you believe it started around January (plus or minus a month or two).

The interesting thing about economics is that the numbers are only backwards looking. It is like trying to drive a car with only a rear view window.

if it was technically a recession it was only because growth skyrocketed to 2.9% in 2018 and was still 2.1% in 2019 compared with .1% estimated growth for 2022

Your post makes little sense. 2.9% would not be considered skyrocketing GDP growth. It is not bad growth, but rather placid growth. Obama had a GDP growth of 5.5% in 2014Q2, followed by 5% in 2014Q3, and after that he continued to have the longest growth period in American history.

It is correct that an overheating economy is the most common cause of a recession, but when 2.9% is overheating, something is going seriously wrong.

There was something going seriously wrong with the trump economy, but no one has figured out quite what it was. For some reason, almost all the corporations ran out of cash-on-hand all at the same time. That should not be possible. Other things we know what went wrong, but we have no idea why. trump allowed all the oil companies to sell to refineries excess oil all at once. That caused the greatest market failure of our lifetimes, but why would he do such a thing?
 
A bunch of people who were fine over the years as other people lost their jobs "They would never offshore/automate my job!" are in for a shock.
 
The Dollar is doing rather well, which is the opposite of what you are claiming.

10% inflation is not really well you retarded faggot it literally lost 10% of its value in less than a year, God you're fucking dumb, you people are fucking delusional we're about to go into stagflation that's going to make Carter look like a genius, we should be in a strong recovery after the lock downs ended but Biden couldn't get his senile ass out of the way.
 
10% inflation is not really well you retarded faggot it literally lost 10% of its value in less than a year, God you're fucking dumb, you people are fucking delusional we're about to go into stagflation that's going to make Carter look like a genius, we should be in a strong recovery after the lock downs ended but Biden couldn't get his senile ass out of the way.

There is no chance that 10% is a honest number.
 
10% inflation

We have not had double digit inflation. More importantly, the Dollar has been doing well against other currencies. We are at parity with the Euro, which has not happened in nearly a quarter of a century.

Would a commodities based currency do better? The long term trend has been dropping commodity prices, so probably not. Would the BRICs do better? The only very successful BRIC in terms of inflation is China, who pegs their currency to ours, so probably not.
 
If we have a recession it's going to be a tiny one, things will be back in order by 2024 as long as the right doesn't take any of the houses. It's starting to look like they won't with Trump embarrassing republicans and this sham of a right wing supreme court doing stupid things like reversing Roe.

You're an imbecile.
 
Last time I checked, it was Slick Willy who balanced the budget and came out with a surplus for the country at the end of his second term.

The Shrub pissed it all away on a bogus war/occupation on Iraq, in addition to bringing back reaganomics in full force.

Obama inherits an economic shit storm and a hostile GOP Congress who would rather see the country burn rather than give him any props. Despite this, Obama leaves office with an economy on the upswing (not great, but not bad either).

Dump comes in and just keeps the Reaganomics train going.

To me, this current "slump" or "mini-recession" was heavily contributed by the Covid lockdown. You can't blame Biden for a virus, now can you?

Yet you and yours tried to blame Trump though!!
 
Once again, derpboy, the entire world is dealing with inflation, cramped housing market, shortages, and the other residual effects of the pandemic. You sound more like a poster child for the #IAloneCanFixItGrifter.

There is something decidedly cringeworthy about a woman in her 7th decade using teen slang like derpboy, truly sad.
 
you morons don't get it - you act like this is some long standing sacred system. This was born in 1971. The frequency and size of these calamities will continue to get worse for Americans. this is beyond repair, it will be a matter of dealing with the fallout.

Okay, Becky, whatever you say.

If you were talking about climate change, I would agree 100%. We can't stop it now, we can only deal with the consequences.
 
There is no chance that 10% is a honest number.


using the formula in place when Carter was in office...

I N F L A T I O N - FLASH (July 14): The original Finished Goods - Producer Price Index Series, which goes back to 1948, hit its second highest annual inflation level in history, at 18.6% in June 2022, the strongest showing since the historical record-high 19.6% of November 1974, while the current Final-Demand Goods PPI-FD series (created in 2009) hit another all-time (13-year) high of 17.4% in June 2022, up from the prior 16.6% series record in May 2022.

http://www.shadowstats.com/
 
First of all, we are not in the worst recession of all time. We might be barely in a recession, or maybe not.

The oversimplified definition of a recession is two GDP declines in a row. There was a minor decline reported in the first quarter, and on July 28th, we may hear there was another minor decline. We will not hear there was a huge decline in either quarter, and almost certainly we will hear of an upward revision in the first quarter. There might not have been a decline at all in the first quarter.

The NBER, and other economists look at more than just the GDP, and right now there are some strange things happening to the GDP. In 2001, there were not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and yet there was a recession. Other statistics pointed to a recession, so the overall economy was declared in recession. The reverse can easily happen.

GDP is the older statistic, but GDI (Gross Domestic Income) is usually considered slightly better. Product and income should match up perfectly, but call upon slightly different statistics, and therefore always differ slightly. Right now they differ greatly.

GDI shows positive growth in the first quarter. That means that GDP will be revised upwards for the first quarter. It may not end up positive, but it will definitely end up higher. It also means the economy is doing better than the not that bad that the GDP shows.

https://www.economist.com/finance-a...understates-the-strength-of-americas-recovery
https://www.economist.com/united-st...erica-may-officially-avoid-a-downturn-for-now

I'll give you this Walt, when you choose not to troll you show you have knowledge of the financial system. I'm guessing you probably follow the AtlantaFed as well. Not that they are the be all end all by any means, but many economists and those who write about the economy do follow them. And they have been projecting negative GDP growth for the 2nd Qtr for awhile. And two negative Qtrs of GDP growth is pretty much the accepted definition of a recession. So you were aware of that.

Thus the old favorite standby in the playbook, call anyone follows/reports on or talks about this a racist. And you got a lot of positive feedback for doing so. It's a tried and true strategy.
 
First of all, we are not in the worst recession of all time. We might be barely in a recession, or maybe not.

The oversimplified definition of a recession is two GDP declines in a row. There was a minor decline reported in the first quarter, and on July 28th, we may hear there was another minor decline. We will not hear there was a huge decline in either quarter, and almost certainly we will hear of an upward revision in the first quarter. There might not have been a decline at all in the first quarter.

The NBER, and other economists look at more than just the GDP, and right now there are some strange things happening to the GDP. In 2001, there were not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and yet there was a recession. Other statistics pointed to a recession, so the overall economy was declared in recession. The reverse can easily happen.

GDP is the older statistic, but GDI (Gross Domestic Income) is usually considered slightly better. Product and income should match up perfectly, but call upon slightly different statistics, and therefore always differ slightly. Right now they differ greatly.

GDI shows positive growth in the first quarter. That means that GDP will be revised upwards for the first quarter. It may not end up positive, but it will definitely end up higher. It also means the economy is doing better than the not that bad that the GDP shows.

https://www.economist.com/finance-a...understates-the-strength-of-americas-recovery
https://www.economist.com/united-st...erica-may-officially-avoid-a-downturn-for-now

Wally, you seem to be off your meds this week. Having a bad one? Walmart pharmacy is open right now.
 
and just think, if Cinema goes along with Manchin on this latest pork bill it all just gets worse.

DC just cant control their grifting.
 
Quote Originally Posted by Taichiliberal View Post
Last time I checked, it was Slick Willy who balanced the budget and came out with a surplus for the country at the end of his second term.

The Shrub pissed it all away on a bogus war/occupation on Iraq, in addition to bringing back reaganomics in full force.

Obama inherits an economic shit storm and a hostile GOP Congress who would rather see the country burn rather than give him any props. Despite this, Obama leaves office with an economy on the upswing (not great, but not bad either).

Dump comes in and just keeps the Reaganomics train going.

To me, this current "slump" or "mini-recession" was heavily contributed by the Covid lockdown. You can't blame Biden for a virus, now can you?




Yet you and yours tried to blame Trump though!!

Didn't blame Dump for the virus itself, just his piss poor response (along with idiot moves by the CDC) that cost lives. Just to clarify, ya know.
 
I'm guessing you probably follow the AtlantaFed as well. Not that they are the be all end all by any means, but many economists and those who write about the economy do follow them. And they have been projecting negative GDP growth for the 2nd Qtr for awhile. And two negative Qtrs of GDP growth is pretty much the accepted definition of a recession.

Q2 was probably going to show a minor contraction, and it did. Q2 came in at -0.9%, which follows Q1 of -1.6%. Q1 is going to be upwardly revised, but it is unlikely to hit a positive number. Q2 will also be upwardly revised, and might hit a positive number, but probably will not. A year from now, we will be left with two quarters of mild GDP contraction... And still two quarters of mild GDI growth.

The NBER will look at a hundred different statistics and decide whether we are in a recession or not. Given the number of very different messages found in those messages, it is far from certain whether it will be decided to be a recession.

If it is a recession, it will be (so far) the most mild recession ever. It could get worse, but no one here has stated a reason for it getting worse.
 
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