3.3% GDP !

cawacko said:
The economy doesn't operate in a vacuum. It doesn't stop and restart when there's a new President.

Yes the President matters but there is more to the economy than that.

3.3% growth is great. But for Trump supporters I'd be careful giving him all the credit because we are sitting on a massive bubble and if you take credit now you take blame when it pops.
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You referring to the stock market or to the bond market when you say massive bubble?
 
cawacko said:
I was referring to the stock market in that post. I know some/many believe treasury's to be too low and a bubble themselves.
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With interest rates this low, it is not surprising to see the S&P at the valuations of today. If long term rates rise, then the average PE should go down, most likely price waiting on earnings to catch up as long as economy is strong.

The real bubble is in the treasury market. The Fed should ramp up the sale of treasuries from their balance sheet and help long term rates to rise. That will give them more room to raise short term rates without risking an inversion on the yield curve.
 
Sailor said:
It started a week after the Presidential election and has been non stop ever since. Right or wrong, businesses and all that capital that had been sitting on the sidelines freed up all of the sudden.
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I think a lot of it was the anticipation of deregulation.
 
Superfreak said:
With interest rates this low, it is not surprising to see the S&P at the valuations of today. If long term rates rise, then the average PE should go down, most likely price waiting on earnings to catch up as long as economy is strong.

The real bubble is in the treasury market. The Fed should ramp up the sale of treasuries from their balance sheet and help long term rates to rise. That will give them more room to raise short term rates without risking an inversion on the yield curve.
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You know better than I but once the Fed takes away the punch bowl you think it stays this high?
 
cawacko said:
You know better than I but once the Fed takes away the punch bowl you think it stays this high?
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For now, yes. The Fed will likely deflate the bond bubble over the next couple of years. With interest rates where they are today, we would need to see the 30 year climb north of 4% (currently about 2.85%) for the PE shift in the S&P to need to decline to the 20 range (currently about 24.5). However, if we get the tax reform bill passed, that alone would likely drop the PE of the S&P down towards 18-19 range (estimate, but should be close).
 
Superfreak said:
For now, yes. The Fed will likely deflate the bond bubble over the next couple of years. With interest rates where they are today, we would need to see the 30 year climb north of 4% (currently about 2.85%) for the PE shift in the S&P to need to decline to the 20 range (currently about 24.5). However, if we get the tax reform bill passed, that alone would likely drop the PE of the S&P down towards 18-19 range (estimate, but should be close).
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There is no tax reform being discussed. Just massive cuts for high earners, coupled with cuts to services.
 
Althea said:
There is no tax reform being discussed. Just massive cuts for high earners, coupled with cuts to services.
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“Our industry is experiencing an extraordinary renaissance and its contributions to America’s economic, national and homeland security have never been more important,” said Tabbutt. “The largest sector of our domestic marine transportation industry supports our energy infrastructure with the movement of crude, refined petroleum products, and chemicals and has seen dramatic growth as a result of the shale oil revolution. This is driving record levels of new vessel construction orders and deliveries in American shipyards.”

Your post. At do yourself a favor and read what you link. And then, do everyone a favor and at least learn something about what the fuck you are talking about. You will not look so fucking stupid every time you post.
 
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