It's probably not going to be Romney. His 'approval' numbers are just too low nationwide. He polls well in the moderate northeast, and that is a definite plus for the GOP overall, but he can't win the nomination, without the conservative south, in my opinion.
Just speculating, I think Newt has the best shot at this point, but that is solely based on name recognition and a presumption of his message. Aside from Gingrich, it's hard for me to count Palin out completely, she has generated an enormous amount of enthusiasm and support among the conservative base, and remains wildly popular in spite of relentless attacks from both liberals and establishment republicans. But I will reiterate, I personally think the 2012 GOP nominee will be someone we aren't even talking about right now. Something just tells me a person will emerge after 2010, to become the voice of conservatives, and solidify support across the spectrum of conservatives, both the libertarian independent types, and social conservatives.
Now, I fully understand how a liberal has no ability to reason any of this, to them, anyone right of Karl Marx has no chance in hell against King Obama, and I can understand how Libertarian Ron Paul types, don't see a Sarah Palin or Newt winning the GOP nomination, but you guys are biased in your viewpoints, you are not considering the sentiment of the majority, or even really in tune with the majority thinking. The GOP nominee will have to be someone who can transcend the divide between social cons and libertarians, to be able to bring both sides together in a coalition. This will likely be done on matters of fiscal policy, perhaps national security, but those of you who are wishing for a GOP candidate who distances himself/herself from social conservatism, are living in a fantasy world, that won't happen, and the GOP can't win without social cons...meaning, pro life... anti-gay marriage... etc.