Nation Building 101

QP!

QP!

Verified User
This is Nation Building 101.

The US must now embark on over a decade to build up Venezuela infrastructure not just to produce oil but roads and ports, etc so the oil can be accessed and extracted.

This movie is not new. It was tried in Venezuela prior with the Big Oil companies losing billions when they invested and then got kicked out with regime change. It was done in the Middle East, leading to 9/11 and an era of emerging Terror Organizations all considering America (not Israel) the biggest target for attacks.

So this time Trump is floating US taxpayers pay all the costs... and of course then Big Oil gets all the profits.

Trump says the U.S. government (taxpayers) may reimburse oil companies for rebuilding Venezuela's infrastructure​

Big oil firms will either "get reimbursed by us or through revenue," Trump told NBC News in an exclusive interview.

..."A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue," he said...

"It’ll be a very substantial amount of money will be spent" by the oil companies, Trump said. ...

Despite Trump's optimism, oil companies have appeared skeptical of quickly entering, expanding or investing in Venezuela. A history of state asset seizures, the ongoing U.S. sanctions and the latest political instability all feed into this caution.
 
aceyko.jpg
 
Time stamped for you, Trump in NYT audio interview trying to be as clear as he can be about how the US will be rebuilding Venezuela with US tax dollars and you add to this Trump saying in the prior interview that the US taxpayer may guarantee or fund the mass amount of infrastructure (ports, roads, refineries, power facilities and grid) to make the oil in the remote areas accessible to US big Oil interests, who are afraid to spend the decades of cash and see another regime change in Venezuela that could Nationalize all of it, and you can see how massive this cost will be for taxpayers.




@T. A. Gardner , @FastLane , @Damocles , you guys good with this plan?
 
QP! said:
This is Nation Building 101.

The US must now embark on over a decade to build up Venezuela infrastructure not just to produce oil but roads and ports, etc so the oil can be accessed and extracted.

This movie is not new. It was tried in Venezuela prior with the Big Oil companies losing billions when they invested and then got kicked out with regime change. It was done in the Middle East, leading to 9/11 and an era of emerging Terror Organizations all considering America (not Israel) the biggest target for attacks.

So this time Trump is floating US taxpayers pay all the costs... and of course then Big Oil gets all the profits.

Trump says the U.S. government (taxpayers) may reimburse oil companies for rebuilding Venezuela's infrastructure​

Big oil firms will either "get reimbursed by us or through revenue," Trump told NBC News in an exclusive interview.

..."A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue," he said...

"It’ll be a very substantial amount of money will be spent" by the oil companies, Trump said. ...

Despite Trump's optimism, oil companies have appeared skeptical of quickly entering, expanding or investing in Venezuela. A history of state asset seizures, the ongoing U.S. sanctions and the latest political instability all feed into this caution.
Click to expand...
Another Iraq war type clusterfuck.
 
QP! said:
This is Nation Building 101.

The US must now embark on over a decade to build up Venezuela infrastructure not just to produce oil but roads and ports, etc so the oil can be accessed and extracted.

This movie is not new. It was tried in Venezuela prior with the Big Oil companies losing billions when they invested and then got kicked out with regime change. It was done in the Middle East, leading to 9/11 and an era of emerging Terror Organizations all considering America (not Israel) the biggest target for attacks.

So this time Trump is floating US taxpayers pay all the costs... and of course then Big Oil gets all the profits.

Trump says the U.S. government (taxpayers) may reimburse oil companies for rebuilding Venezuela's infrastructure​

Big oil firms will either "get reimbursed by us or through revenue," Trump told NBC News in an exclusive interview.

..."A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue," he said...

"It’ll be a very substantial amount of money will be spent" by the oil companies, Trump said. ...

Despite Trump's optimism, oil companies have appeared skeptical of quickly entering, expanding or investing in Venezuela. A history of state asset seizures, the ongoing U.S. sanctions and the latest political instability all feed into this caution.
Click to expand...
I know there were rich venezuelans kids showing up at my Jesuit school in indiana in the mid eighties.

make of that what you will.
 
LurchAddams said:
Another Iraq war type clusterfuck.
Click to expand...

It is actually much worse than that.

With the Iraq war there was no plan to stay and confiscate the oil (directly) and lets pretend they did, the cost of getting oil in the Middle East is tiny comparatively.

In Venezuela the bulk of oil is in the most remote and unreachable and unserviceable parts of the country. Getting it out would mirror what was done in Alberta Canada, in the earliest days of the Oil Sands, where an entire city and roads, power, etc had to be formed to service it.

This would require nation building to the extreme in Venezuela. Roads, Ports, Refineries, electricity generation and a grid all built in the most unhospitable area of the country. We are talking about trillions upon trillions of US taxpayer dollars over about 20 years, for the volumes to finally grow to a point where the oil was extracted at a profit.

If i was a Venezuelan i would allow the US to start right away. Start pouring that money in to the country and building out that infrastructure. Shut up and let them spend and improve these things in country and enjoy the economic spin offs. In 15-20 years time, the Venezuelans can again have a citizen referendum or change their Constitution again to kick out all international companies and re nationalize all oil assets and they just have to do so when the US has a POTUS who will respect that any country can do that legally and without reprisal.

That is why Big Oil is negotiating with Trump right now that they want US GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES on not just any money they put out but on future profit and revenue protection so they AGAIN do not lose everything after investing in Venezuela. As Trump does not care about tax payer money and only wants an 'optics win' we will likely give that protection and taxpayers will pay for all of it in the future.
 
QP! said:
It is actually much worse than that.

With the Iraq war there was no plan to stay and confiscate the oil (directly) and lets pretend they did, the cost of getting oil in the Middle East is tiny comparatively.

In Venezuela the bulk of oil is in the most remote and unreachable and unserviceable parts of the country. Getting it out would mirror what was done in Alberta Canada, in the earliest days of the Oil Sands, where an entire city and roads, power, etc had to be formed to service it.

This would require nation building to the extreme in Venezuela. Roads, Ports, Refineries, electricity generation and a grid all built in the most unhospitable area of the country. We are talking about trillions upon trillions of US taxpayer dollars over about 20 years, for the volumes to finally grow to a point where the oil was extracted at a profit.

If i was a Venezuelan i would allow the US to start right away. Start pouring that money in to the country and building out that infrastructure. Shut up and let them spend and improve these things in country and enjoy the economic spin offs. In 15-20 years time, the Venezuelans can again have a citizen referendum or change their Constitution again to kick out all international companies and re nationalize all oil assets and they just have to do so when the US has a POTUS who will respect that any country can do that legally and without reprisal.

That is why Big Oil is negotiating with Trump right now that they want US GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES on not just any money they put out but on future profit and revenue protection so they AGAIN do not lose everything after investing in Venezuela. As Trump does not care about tax payer money and only wants an 'optics win' we will likely give that protection and taxpayers will pay for all of it in the future.
Click to expand...
No big oil company is going to send workers into a guerrilla war zone to refurbish outdated machinery. Trump's boondoggle brought nothing but shame on the US.
 
LurchAddams said:
No big oil company is going to send workers into a guerrilla war zone to refurbish outdated machinery. Trump's boondoggle brought nothing but shame on the US.
Click to expand...
More like no big company of any sort is going to go into a nation where there is a damn good chance of another socialist / Leftist takeover and they'll end up losing their investment(s) there.

Venezuela is hardly the only Central / South American or Caribbean nation to do just that. Corporate management knows better.
 
T. A. Gardner said:
More like no big company of any sort is going to go into a nation where there is a damn good chance of another socialist / Leftist takeover and they'll end up losing their investment(s) there.

Venezuela is hardly the only Central / South American or Caribbean nation to do just that. Corporate management knows better.
Click to expand...
Trump is actively NOW bringing in the heads of Big Oil and trying every guarantee to get them to go back in and get that oil. he is floating the US taxpayer, paying for all of it and a continued 'troops on the ground' presence, to protect them.

he has floated paying directly for nation building and even oil extraction infrastructure all with tax payer money but the Oil Execs, being smart will hold off until they see an binding enforceable contract they can sue the US (not Venezuela) over should they lose everything again.
 
QP! said:
Trump is actively NOW bringing in the heads of Big Oil and trying every guarantee to get them to go back in and get that oil. he is floating the US taxpayer, paying for all of it and a continued 'troops on the ground' presence, to protect them.

he has floated paying directly for nation building and even oil extraction infrastructure all with tax payer money but the Oil Execs, being smart will hold off until they see an binding enforceable contract they can sue the US (not Venezuela) over should they lose everything again.
Click to expand...
This is not America first or Make America Great in any aspect.
 
QP! said:
Trump is actively NOW bringing in the heads of Big Oil and trying every guarantee to get them to go back in and get that oil. he is floating the US taxpayer, paying for all of it and a continued 'troops on the ground' presence, to protect them.

he has floated paying directly for nation building and even oil extraction infrastructure all with tax payer money but the Oil Execs, being smart will hold off until they see an binding enforceable contract they can sue the US (not Venezuela) over should they lose everything again.
Click to expand...
Yea, and they're pushing back that Venezuela is unstable and potentially going to fall back into a socialist dictatorship. They want no part of that.

They also don't particularly need the oil. At some point the market gets glutted with an excess and prices crash. Energy companies don't want that to happen either.
 
T. A. Gardner said:
Yea, and they're pushing back that Venezuela is unstable and potentially going to fall back into a socialist dictatorship. They want no part of that.

They also don't particularly need the oil. At some point the market gets glutted with an excess and prices crash. Energy companies don't want that to happen either.
Click to expand...
yes but Trump won't be deterred from trying as he sees his big win being 'securing the largest oil reserves in the world for America', as a something he can promote.

He does not care that it would likely take over 10 years of Nation Building to just start getting that oil to market in any meaningful amounts and then up to another 5-10 years to get to the high volumes necessary to be profitable. Trump is ok with all those costs being put on US taxpayers in the future, as long as he can get his 'Promotional win' now by getting the Big Oil to agree to go in and get the oil.

and if that means Trump has to get the US to guarantee EVERYTHING to Big Oil with taxpayers providing guarantees to them and building up the country infrastructure, he seems willing to do it.

Think of this like Bidens Infrastructure building in America but instead Trump's focus is Venezuela. MAGA!!!
 
T. A. Gardner said:
Yea, and they're pushing back that Venezuela is unstable and potentially going to fall back into a socialist dictatorship. They want no part of that.

They also don't particularly need the oil. At some point the market gets glutted with an excess and prices crash. Energy companies don't want that to happen either.
Click to expand...
So what is your view (@FastLane , @Damocles) on this massive Nation building and protection plan being pushed by Trump for Venezuela?

He has called the top US Oil heads in to meetings with them offering assurances (citizen cash for infrastructure (roads, ports, power generation and delivery, and troops on the ground to protect, etc) if they agree to go into the most remote and un-serviced parts of Venezuela to build it up, such that large scale oil extraction can be done. Best estimates is this is an investment (of tax payer dollars) that would take many decades to pay back to US citizens, while the country of Venezuela would benefit immediately.

Any pay back to the US has to assume US is not kicked out of the country, in a decade plus to come, via a citizen referendum type vote and President, that a future US POTUS would not feel obligated to respect and follow. If i was in leadership in Venezuela i would say 'shut up and let the US spend all that tax payer money and we can take it all over in the future, once it is profitable'.

I want to know what you Magats think about this NOW, as i know if Trump does commit the US to it and gives the guarantees above your position will change to 'why do you hate Venezuelans', 'this is good as the US is securing our future with this oil', and a bunch of 'whatabout Bidens', as the reasons to NOT criticize Trump and to support what he does.

I suspect you guys will NOT go on the record with your views now for that reason as you do not want that record which then shows you may be in opposition to what Trump does and thus are stuck with that hypocrisy when you then change your view. I guess we will see.
 
QP! said:
This is Nation Building 101.

The US must now embark on over a decade to build up Venezuela infrastructure not just to produce oil but roads and ports, etc so the oil can be accessed and extracted.

This movie is not new. It was tried in Venezuela prior with the Big Oil companies losing billions when they invested and then got kicked out with regime change. It was done in the Middle East, leading to 9/11 and an era of emerging Terror Organizations all considering America (not Israel) the biggest target for attacks.

So this time Trump is floating US taxpayers pay all the costs... and of course then Big Oil gets all the profits.

Trump says the U.S. government (taxpayers) may reimburse oil companies for rebuilding Venezuela's infrastructure​

Big oil firms will either "get reimbursed by us or through revenue," Trump told NBC News in an exclusive interview.

..."A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue," he said...

"It’ll be a very substantial amount of money will be spent" by the oil companies, Trump said. ...

Despite Trump's optimism, oil companies have appeared skeptical of quickly entering, expanding or investing in Venezuela. A history of state asset seizures, the ongoing U.S. sanctions and the latest political instability all feed into this caution.
Click to expand...
Maybe, or maybe Trump is playing a game, he says he is running Venezuela, but there are no outward signs of it. He has held up some oil tankers, and others are coming and going.

What signs are there that he is affecting any change in Venezuela?

It appears the oil companies aren't really interested. Can you blame them? Trump can protect their interests in Venezuela for three more years. . . he is asking them a multi billion dollar investment that will take a decade or more to recoup.
 
QP! said:
So what is your view (@FastLane , @Damocles) on this massive Nation building and protection plan being pushed by Trump for Venezuela?

He has called the top US Oil heads in to meetings with them offering assurances (citizen cash for infrastructure (roads, ports, power generation and delivery, and troops on the ground to protect, etc) if they agree to go into the most remote and un-serviced parts of Venezuela to build it up, such that large scale oil extraction can be done. Best estimates is this is an investment (of tax payer dollars) that would take many decades to pay back to US citizens, while the country of Venezuela would benefit immediately.

Any pay back to the US has to assume US is not kicked out of the country, in a decade plus to come, via a citizen referendum type vote and President, that a future US POTUS would not feel obligated to respect and follow. If i was in leadership in Venezuela i would say 'shut up and let the US spend all that tax payer money and we can take it all over in the future, once it is profitable'.

I want to know what you Magats think about this NOW, as i know if Trump does commit the US to it and gives the guarantees above your position will change to 'why do you hate Venezuelans', 'this is good as the US is securing our future with this oil', and a bunch of 'whatabout Bidens', as the reasons to NOT criticize Trump and to support what he does.

I suspect you guys will NOT go on the record with your views now for that reason as you do not want that record which then shows you may be in opposition to what Trump does and thus are stuck with that hypocrisy when you then change your view. I guess we will see.
Click to expand...
It's not going to work. Venezuela is going to go back to being a mini-Mexico with oil. If the government doesn't continue as a radical Leftist, Socialist dictatorship, it'll be just another corrupt, captialist state run by the usual sort of S. American politicians on the take. Trump can't and won't change any of that in the 3-ish years he has left in office.

Trump's traded the corruption and oppression we know (Maduro) for corruption and oppression we don't know. However, if the country has open markets at least everybody won't be starving equally.

Biden's bribe 'em strategy was a total fail on the other hand too. All that does is feed the current corruption keeping them in power.

Brazil, for example, elects avowed Communists to government all the time. The thing that keeps them out of the funny papers is their Communists know better than to enact full blown communism on the country least the US swoop in and take them out. Then things go back to the usual corruption, oppression, but the markets are open for business...
 
Jarod said:
Maybe, or maybe Trump is playing a game, he says he is running Venezuela, but there are no outward signs of it. He has held up some oil tankers, and others are coming and going.

What signs are there that he is affecting any change in Venezuela?

It appears the oil companies aren't really interested. Can you blame them? Trump can protect their interests in Venezuela for three more years. . . he is asking them a multi billion dollar investment that will take a decade or more to recoup.
Click to expand...
What you say may be the outcome, but at this stage it seems Trump is All In on the Nation Building and is trying to determine 'how much he needs to offer big oil, in terms of Nation Building, subsidies, and Protection' for them to say 'YES, we will commit to the plan', and give Trump the PR win, he perceives that to be.

-------------

Trump promises oil companies ‘total safety’ in Venezuela as he urges them to invest billions​

Country is ‘uninvestable’ today, president told, but CEOs signal they are ready to spend with support


----------

Big Oil guys are not dumb and they see how desperate Trump is for this 'win', he perceives, so they will hold out, in part due to very real concerns, but also to see how far Trump will commit taxpayer dollars and troops to them, to protect their profits.

For instance if the US taxpayer GUARANTEE a minimum return over a 20-30 year time cycle to Big Oil, in the event of any failure (ex, Venezuela Nationalizes it all again and a future US POTUS, allows it) you may see Big Oil commit.

But Big Oil knows Trump does not give a fuck about US future tax payers paying this so they will hold out and see how far he will go.
 
T. A. Gardner said:
It's not going to work. Venezuela is going to go back to being a mini-Mexico with oil. If the government doesn't continue as a radical Leftist, Socialist dictatorship, it'll be just another corrupt, captialist state run by the usual sort of S. American politicians on the take. Trump can't and won't change any of that in the 3-ish years he has left in office.

Trump's traded the corruption and oppression we know (Maduro) for corruption and oppression we don't know. However, if the country has open markets at least everybody won't be starving equally.

Biden's bribe 'em strategy was a total fail on the other hand too. All that does is feed the current corruption keeping them in power.

Brazil, for example, elects avowed Communists to government all the time. The thing that keeps them out of the funny papers is their Communists know better than to enact full blown communism on the country least the US swoop in and take them out. Then things go back to the usual corruption, oppression, but the markets are open for business...
Click to expand...
You are not answering my question.

You and i agree this will not work.

I am asking, if Trump gets the deal with US big Oil (see above) and they do commit American taxpayers, what will your view be then? I want you to commit to it to now as i KNOW it will be to unconditionally support what Trump does the day after.

And if you believe this is very unlikely to happen, that too does not change my question as my question applies to the even the most remote chance it MIGHT happen.
 
QP! said:
You are not answering my question.

You and i agree this will not work.

I am asking, if Trump gets the deal with US big Oil (see above) and they do commit American taxpayers, what will your view be then? I want you to commit to it to now as i KNOW it will be to unconditionally support what Trump does the day after.
Click to expand...

I think that depends on exactly what is committed to. If there's an agreement for the feds to loan money upfront--loan--to companies to rebuild in Venezuela, or the government is underwriting this, I might be agreeable to that happening. If it's just the government paying companies to rebuild there, no, I'd oppose that.

Venezuela needs to be reasonably stable first and the chances of another socialist dictatorship occurring close to eliminated. One way to get to that is get the economy moving again. Denationalize industry and such and get people back into it that know what they're doing rather than Maduro's cronies who were put in place because they're politically reliable.
QP! said:
And if you believe this is very unlikely to happen, that too does not change my question as my question applies to the even the most remote chance it MIGHT happen.
Click to expand...
The problem at the moment is the portion of the country that backed Maduro. They are partially armed and there are parts of Venezuela they control locally. That needs to end ASAP. The problem there is doing that will get ugly and the US and Western media will make hay out of it being done in a way that actually works which is messy.
 
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