Nation Building 101

[Monad Portal]

It is actually much worse than that.

With the Iraq war there was no plan to stay and confiscate the oil (directly) and lets pretend they did, the cost of getting oil in the Middle East is tiny comparatively.

In Venezuela the bulk of oil is in the most remote and unreachable and unserviceable parts of the country. Getting it out would mirror what was done in Alberta Canada, in the earliest days of the Oil Sands, where an entire city and roads, power, etc had to be formed to service it.

This would require nation building to the extreme in Venezuela. Roads, Ports, Refineries, electricity generation and a grid all built in the most unhospitable area of the country. We are talking about trillions upon trillions of US taxpayer dollars over about 20 years, for the volumes to finally grow to a point where the oil was extracted at a profit.

If i was a Venezuelan i would allow the US to start right away. Start pouring that money in to the country and building out that infrastructure. Shut up and let them spend and improve these things in country and enjoy the economic spin offs. In 15-20 years time, the Venezuelans can again have a citizen referendum or change their Constitution again to kick out all international companies and re nationalize all oil assets and they just have to do so when the US has a POTUS who will respect that any country can do that legally and without reprisal.

That is why Big Oil is negotiating with Trump right now that they want US GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES on not just any money they put out but on future profit and revenue protection so they AGAIN do not lose everything after investing in Venezuela. As Trump does not care about tax payer money and only wants an 'optics win' we will likely give that protection and taxpayers will pay for all of it in the future.

but you admit venezualans want it.

 

[Cypress]

This is Nation Building 101.
The US must now embark on over a decade to build up Venezuela infrastructure not just to produce oil but roads and ports, etc so the oil can be accessed and extracted.

MAGA morons spent the last nine years telling me that money should only be spent on America, and that we were out of the nation building business.

 

[Damocles]

So what is your view (@FastLane , @Damocles) on this massive Nation building and protection plan being pushed by Trump for Venezuela?

He has called the top US Oil heads in to meetings with them offering assurances (citizen cash for infrastructure (roads, ports, power generation and delivery, and troops on the ground to protect, etc) if they agree to go into the most remote and un-serviced parts of Venezuela to build it up, such that large scale oil extraction can be done. Best estimates is this is an investment (of tax payer dollars) that would take many decades to pay back to US citizens, while the country of Venezuela would benefit immediately.

Any pay back to the US has to assume US is not kicked out of the country, in a decade plus to come, via a citizen referendum type vote and President, that a future US POTUS would not feel obligated to respect and follow. If i was in leadership in Venezuela i would say 'shut up and let the US spend all that tax payer money and we can take it all over in the future, once it is profitable'.

I want to know what you Magats think about this NOW, as i know if Trump does commit the US to it and gives the guarantees above your position will change to 'why do you hate Venezuelans', 'this is good as the US is securing our future with this oil', and a bunch of 'whatabout Bidens', as the reasons to NOT criticize Trump and to support what he does.

I suspect you guys will NOT go on the record with your views now for that reason as you do not want that record which then shows you may be in opposition to what Trump does and thus are stuck with that hypocrisy when you then change your view. I guess we will see.

I do not know why you think I have some pro-nation building stance to report back to you. Can you find one post of mine supporting something like that so that I can understand why you think I am the person to @ask about this?

 

[QP!]

I think that depends on exactly what is committed to. If there's an agreement for the feds to loan money upfront--loan--to companies to rebuild in Venezuela, or the government is underwriting this, I might be agreeable to that happening. If it's just the government paying companies to rebuild there, no, I'd oppose that.

Venezuela needs to be reasonably stable first and the chances of another socialist dictatorship occurring close to eliminated. One way to get to that is get the economy moving again. Denationalize industry and such and get people back into it that know what they're doing rather than Maduro's cronies who were put in place because they're politically reliable.

The problem at the moment is the portion of the country that backed Maduro. They are partially armed and there are parts of Venezuela they control locally. That needs to end ASAP. The problem there is doing that will get ugly and the US and Western media will make hay out of it being done in a way that actually works which is messy.

Ok so lets break it down:

- On Nation Building Venezuela generally thru tax pay funded loans you are ok
- if it is not 'loans' and just the gov't paying you are not ok with that
- We both agree on the instability of Venezuela but you believe that can be countered is by success Nation building that gets their economy going
- we both agree Gorilla action will likely follow any Big Oil or US attempt to nation build, with Oil assets being key targets


So the most likely deal (if Trump gets Big Oil to capitulate) will be IMO:

1 - US tax payers guaranteeing Big Oil costs of build out of Oil Assets, with a minimum 20 year guarantee on minimum returns
2 - US gov't building out Roads, Ports, Electric Capacity and Grid to area
3 - US boots on the ground protecting all of it for decades

Without that Step 1 i see no way Big Oil commits as a future POTUS would likely not go to war to protect those assets if Nationalized again, especially if done so through a real democratic process.

 

[Hume]

This is Nation Building 101.

The US must now embark on over a decade to build up Venezuela infrastructure not just to produce oil but roads and ports, etc so the oil can be accessed and extracted.

Imperialism is not nation building.

 

[QP!]

I do not know why you think I have some pro-nation building stance to report back to you. Can you find one post of mine supporting something like that so that I can understand why you think I am the person to @ask about this?

That is not it.

What i can absolutely predict is that if Trump does this, you will not critique him then and instead find a way to blame Biden or Democrats.

So i was trying to get you on the record now, KNOWING you guys will almost certainly not want to go on the record, so you do not look like a hypocrite later.

Terry at least offered somewhat of an answer but you can see he hedged so if Trump goes all in on this Terry can still say he 'was open to it', as he does above.

I suspect non answers from all of you or at best a hedged one. I do not expect any of you to take an absolute position due to not wanting to be offside if Trump gets his deal.

So, in a way Damo, your answer was the most predictable.

 

[Damocles]

That is not it.

What i can absolutely predict is that if Trump does this, you will not critique him then and instead find a way to blame Biden or Democrats.

So i was trying to get you on the record now, KNOWING you guys will almost certainly not want to go on the record, so you do not look like a hypocrite later.

Terry at least offered somewhat of an answer but you can see he hedged so if Trump goes all in on this Terry can still say he 'was open to it', as he does above.

I suspect non answers from all of you or at best a hedged one. I do not expect any of you to take an absolute position due to not wanting to be offside if Trump gets his deal.

So, in a way Damo, your answer was the most predictable.

In what way? If you can find one post of mine blaming Biden for Trump going in and arresting Maduro.. You get on it, link us up. Tell me all about it. Otherwise, quit "predicting" stuff about me, you are invariably wrong, and it literally lowers the average intelligence levels of the posts on the board.

 

[QP!]

Imperialism is not nation building.

Nation Building is nation building though. Imperialism can simply be taking control via military but not building the nation but that is not what is proposed here.

Venezuela is so under developed and the areas where the Oil are, are in the least developed areas of Venezuela. There are few to no roads, little to no electricity or grid, and the ports and other infrastructure would all need to be basically built again from scratch. that is before you could even begin the 10 year project to build the heavy oil refineries to start getting the Oil refined and estimates are it will take up to another 10 years to get volumes up to where it is profitable.

This will cause a massive boom in Venezuela generally. The entire country will gain mass benefits and growth in GDP via this. And Venezuela will always have a very easy path to Nationalizing all those assets at the end, if they have a government that is perceived as democratic and the people vote for it and the US has a POTUS at the time that would follow International Law.

That is why, if i am in Venezuela, as leader or citizen, i shut up and let American tax payers spend and spend and enjoy the economic spin offs and Nationalize it all only after it is all mostly done.

 

[Hume]

Nation Building is nation building though. Imperialism can simply be taking control via military but not building the nation but that is not what is proposed here.

Naive. Like talking about natural slaves.

 

[QP!]

In what way? If you can find one post of mine blaming Biden for Trump going in and arresting Maduro.. You get on it, link us up. Tell me all about it. Otherwise, quit "predicting" stuff about me, you are invariably wrong, and it literally lowers the average intelligence levels of the posts on the board.

Naw. You have already given your answer and that is you 'will not answer and allow your view to be pinned either way'.

So if Trump gets his deal, we will now have that to reference and see how you respond to that. Will you be directly critical of Trump and the deal or find someway to 'whatabout Liberals' this, as is your norm when you do not want to criticize Trump but do not want to support what he did either so you move to 'whataboutisms' to excuse it.

If i had to bet on how you would answer, you did it exactly as i would have bet.

Terry gave a hedge answer, where i would have predicted him being more like yours. But a hedge is not taking a position really. he can still go either way and adjust once he sees what Trump does. I think Fastlane will mirror Terry now too.

NONE OF YOU, will lay down the marker, 'I do not support this nation building at all, if it plays out the way that is being discussed' as then you will 'oppose Trump directly' and do not want to be caught in that.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

Ok so lets break it down:

- On Nation Building Venezuela generally thru tax pay funded loans you are ok

Yes. That's on the level of foreign aid. We do that for a lot of countries.

- if it is not 'loans' and just the gov't paying you are not ok with that

I'm against the government just handing money over for nothing in return.

- We both agree on the instability of Venezuela but you believe that can be countered is by success Nation building that gets their economy going

Yes. If people there are reasonably well fed, have jobs, and there isn't too much crime, graft, or corruption, they will generally keep the nation stable.

- we both agree Gorilla action will likely follow any Big Oil or US attempt to nation build, with Oil assets being key targets

Guerrilla, not "Gorilla." Gorillas live in Africa or zoos. The remaining Maduro faction might try some shit, but it appears they're more inclined to flee to Colombia next door and join resistance movements there.

So the most likely deal (if Trump gets Big Oil to capitulate) will be IMO:

1 - US tax payers guaranteeing Big Oil costs of build out of Oil Assets, with a minimum 20 year guarantee on minimum returns

That would work for me. The oil companies make money. Venezuela makes money. Venezuelans get decent jobs out of it. And, of course, the US government isn't out any substantial amount just playing insurance underwriter.

2 - US gov't building out Roads, Ports, Electric Capacity and Grid to area

I could see some of that in the form of foreign aid. China does it with their Belt and Road program for example.

3 - US boots on the ground protecting all of it for decades

Hopefully not. Limit US military involvement to advisory and training roles. Sell Venezuela military equipment. As a side note, we've been in Europe and parts of Asia for 80 years now...

Without that Step 1 i see no way Big Oil commits as a future POTUS would likely not go to war to protect those assets if Nationalized again, especially if done so through a real democratic process.

Nationalization of major industrial assets is a recipe for industrial decline at a pretty rapid rate.

As one example, take the UK. Starting in 1945 the UK began to nationalize many major industrial sectors. In 30 years, their coal, steel, aerospace, shipbuilding, and automotive industries all but collapsed into ruin being run by the government. Venezuela's oil industry was reduced to a small fraction of what it could produce in under 10 years with nationalization.

PEMEX in Mexico was the same way. The oil industry was wracked by corruption and incompetence.

I don't care if nationalization is voted in or forced, it doesn't work and the industry that's nationalized performs pathetically usually ending in near total collapse.

 

[QP!]

Naive. Like talking about natural slaves.

What is "naive".

There is not one person who is saying American Big Oil can get the oil out without Nation building.

Are you saying the oil can be gained by 'magic' and no investment in roads, electricity generation and grid, ports, etc can be done?

Can you explain how you believe that Oil can be extracted and refined without Nation Building?

Canada's Fort McMurray region is a very reasonable parallel for this. Remote, generally inhospitable area that had almost no servicing that all had to built into an entire town and its own economy to service the Big Oil companies. Everything i mention in prior posts had to be built up in Canada to make that oil extraction viable and it took decades to get volumes up enough where the oil being extracted was profitable.

And that was done in a stable country where there was no threat of Nationalization just taking over the assets, once complete. Venezuela would have a very good case to take it all over when done and likely would get World Court and maybe even the future US POTUS to agree.

 

[Hume]

What is "naive".

There is not one person who is saying American Big Oil can get the oil out without Nation building.

Stealing oil is not nation building.

 

[QP!]

Yes. That's on the level of foreign aid. We do that for a lot of countries.


I'm against the government just handing money over for nothing in return.


Yes. If people there are reasonably well fed, have jobs, and there isn't too much crime, graft, or corruption, they will generally keep the nation stable.


Guerrilla, not "Gorilla." Gorillas live in Africa or zoos. The remaining Maduro faction might try some shit, but it appears they're more inclined to flee to Colombia next door and join resistance movements there.


That would work for me. The oil companies make money. Venezuela makes money. Venezuelans get decent jobs out of it. And, of course, the US government isn't out any substantial amount just playing insurance underwriter.


I could see some of that in the form of foreign aid. China does it with their Belt and Road program for example.


Hopefully not. Limit US military involvement to advisory and training roles. Sell Venezuela military equipment. As a side note, we've been in Europe and parts of Asia for 80 years now...

Nationalization of major industrial assets is a recipe for industrial decline at a pretty rapid rate.

As one example, take the UK. Starting in 1945 the UK began to nationalize many major industrial sectors. In 30 years, their coal, steel, aerospace, shipbuilding, and automotive industries all but collapsed into ruin being run by the government. Venezuela's oil industry was reduced to a small fraction of what it could produce in under 10 years with nationalization.

PEMEX in Mexico was the same way. The oil industry was wracked by corruption and incompetence.

I don't care if nationalization is voted in or forced, it doesn't work and the industry that's nationalized performs pathetically usually ending in near total collapse.

Noted.

you are very much an Globalist, based on your answer above ok with the US using tax payer money to build up other nations as long as you think there is good chance for pay back and profit. You are also a NeoCon, based on your support of US using might to get countries to that point (forcing regimes out so that investment can be done).

Not saying those things to be critical and just as recognition of what you say above.

And while over all i agree with you that Nationalization would have a downward impact on the Oil Assets and country over all, it could still be smart for Venezuela to do it if the deals Trump force and that are in place are taking almost all the revenue and profits out of the country.

In others words Venezuela gaining 100%, even if 50% diminished can be much better than getting almost nothing.

And since Politicians rarely believe they will fuck it up after and it will be such a 'populist' thing run on, you can bet there will always be at least one Party and potential POTUS running in Venezuela on re-nationalizing the assets 'for the people' while believing the country is stable enough to withstand any general markets reaction.

 

[QP!]

Stealing oil is not nation building.

Again,

And last time i will say it, as i suspect you are too stupid to understand this answer...

The VAST majority of Venezuelan oil is in the least developed areas of the country and there are no refineries, roads or other ways to get it.

So unless you know magic, you cannot steal it, without FIRST building up the infrastructure to get it.

Canada has arguably as much valuable 'rare earths' as China and any area in the world but they have no developed industry to get it, so no one can 'steal it' without first building that industry.

I honesty believe you are daft enough you think the Venezuelan oil is sitting on barrels on docks and America just has to grab those, but prove me wrong and give me your way to 'steal it' that does not involve nation building?

 

[Hume]

Again,

And last time i will say it, as i suspect you are too stupid to understand this answer...

I am not stupid.

 

[Hume]

Again,

And last time i will say it, as i suspect you are too stupid to understand this answer...

The VAST majority of Venezuelan oil is in the least developed areas of the country and there are no refineries, roads or other ways to get it.

So unless you know magic, you cannot steal it, without FIRST building up the infrastructure to get it.

Canada has arguably as much valuable 'rare earths' as China and any area in the world but they have no developed industry to get it, so no one can 'steal it' without first building that industry.

I honesty believe you are daft enough you think the Venezuelan oil is sitting on barrels on docks and America just has to grab those, but prove me wrong and give me your way to 'steal it' that does not involve nation building?

At least you are an honest Trump fascist.

 

[QP!]

At least you are an honest Trump fascist.

I am not stupid.

If you read my posts above and think those represent some who is a 'Trump fascist' I agree you are not 'stupid' and instead you pass into 'complete moron' zone.

Nothing i say above is supportive Trump and pointing out 'no one can extract the vast quantities of Venezuela Oil being discussed without Nation Building first', does not make me a Trump fascist. it means i am a realist who agrees with every report (including by big Oil) on what it would take to get to a point where the oil could be accessed and extracted and refined and then sent to market.

 

[Hume]

If you read my posts above and think those represent some who is a 'Trump fascist' I agree you are not 'stupid' and instead you pass into 'complete moron' zone.

Nothing i say above is supportive Trump and pointing out 'no one can extract the vast quantities of Venezuela Oil being discussed without Nation Building first', does not make me a Trump fascist. it means i am a realist who agrees with every report (including by big Oil) on what it would take to get to a point where the oil could be accessed and extracted and refined and then sent to market.

I lost interest in your bullshit.

 

[QP!]

I lost interest in your bullshit.

You could just reply with 'i believe in magic and have no interest in reading or learning' and leave it at that.

You are in good company, on internet forums as most do not read anything and just offer empty and stupid opinions (hurr durr 'they can just steal it without extracting it and refining it... hurr durr'), in the same way you do.