A grinding war in Iran has so severely drained American firepower that Chinese analysts are openly questioning Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan. That shifting calculus threatens to undercut President Trump’s leverage in his high-stakes summit next week with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.
Since the war began in late February, the United States has burned through around half of its long-range stealth cruise missiles and fired off roughly 10 times the number of Tomahawk cruise missiles it currently buys each year, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials.
To some Chinese military and geopolitical analysts, the war has done more than deplete U.S. munitions stockpiles, it has also shattered America’s aura of dominance. They argue that it has exposed a major flaw in U.S. war strategy: its inability to make weapons quickly enough to replenish its arsenal in a sustained, intense conflict.
This depletion “has significantly diminished the U.S. military’s ability to project its combat power, laying bare the shortcomings of its global military hegemony,” said Yue Gang, a retired colonel of the People’s Liberation Army, in an interview.
Such arguments help fuel a narrative among hawkish Chinese commentators, and potentially in the government, that American forces could no longer effectively defend Taiwan should the United States and China ever go to war over the self-governed island. The logic of Chinese nationalists is that since the United States has been unable to achieve a quick victory against Iran, a regional military power, then it would most likely have even less success against China, which the analysts see as a peer competitor.
From this perspective, the U.S. impasse with Iran weakens Mr. Trump’s position going into talks with Mr. Xi next week.
“Trump originally intended to visit China with the air of a swift victor, leveraging his position to increase pressure on China,” Mr. Yue said. “Now, however, with the conflict deadlocked and the military campaign stalled, he finds himself in a difficult position.”
Mr. Trump, he added, “will be unable to project the same arrogance.”
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Since the war began in late February, the United States has burned through around half of its long-range stealth cruise missiles and fired off roughly 10 times the number of Tomahawk cruise missiles it currently buys each year, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials.
To some Chinese military and geopolitical analysts, the war has done more than deplete U.S. munitions stockpiles, it has also shattered America’s aura of dominance. They argue that it has exposed a major flaw in U.S. war strategy: its inability to make weapons quickly enough to replenish its arsenal in a sustained, intense conflict.
This depletion “has significantly diminished the U.S. military’s ability to project its combat power, laying bare the shortcomings of its global military hegemony,” said Yue Gang, a retired colonel of the People’s Liberation Army, in an interview.
Such arguments help fuel a narrative among hawkish Chinese commentators, and potentially in the government, that American forces could no longer effectively defend Taiwan should the United States and China ever go to war over the self-governed island. The logic of Chinese nationalists is that since the United States has been unable to achieve a quick victory against Iran, a regional military power, then it would most likely have even less success against China, which the analysts see as a peer competitor.
From this perspective, the U.S. impasse with Iran weakens Mr. Trump’s position going into talks with Mr. Xi next week.
“Trump originally intended to visit China with the air of a swift victor, leveraging his position to increase pressure on China,” Mr. Yue said. “Now, however, with the conflict deadlocked and the military campaign stalled, he finds himself in a difficult position.”
Mr. Trump, he added, “will be unable to project the same arrogance.”
China Sees a ‘Giant With a Limp’ as U.S. Drains Weapons on Iran War
America’s ability to deter China in a war over Taiwan is weakened, Chinese analysts say, giving Beijing leverage in an upcoming summit with President Trump.
