Who will blink first?

Principlists urge Hormuz closures, ship seizures to counter US pressure​



With the US imposing an illegal naval blockade of Iranian ports, the Kayhan daily and some members of parliament have called for seizing foreign ships in the Strait of Hormuz and demanding that Yemen’s Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

On Wednesday, hours after Donald Trump announced a unilateral extension of a ceasefire in attacks on Iran, Kayhan published its front-page headline “The response to the US naval blockade is to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait,” with an editorial by its editor-in-chief, Hossein Shariatmadari.

Shariatmadari, a figure close to late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) should ensure the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

He also called for compensation for war damages from the US and Israel through the seizure of cargo from ships.

“Given the inaction of the UN Security Council and the UN’s obvious dependence on the arrogant powers, it is our legal right to receive the amount of compensation demanded through spoils,” Shariatmadari wrote.

“We should seize US-owned ships currently in the Strait of Hormuz and confiscate US-owned oil and goods transported by non-US ships as compensation,” he added.

At the same time, principlist lawmaker Seyyed Mahmoud Nabavyan dismissed any link between the US naval blockade and ongoing negotiations, calling talks with the US “pure damage”.

“Lifting the naval blockade is our right, and anyway, we will make it happen by force. This has nothing to do with negotiations,” he said.
 
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said:

US wholesale prices surged 4% last month after the war in Iran sent energy prices flying​



apnews.com

US wholesale prices surged 4% last month after the war in Iran sent energy prices flying

U.S. wholesale prices surged last month as the Iran war drove up the cost of energy. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it hits consumers — rose 0.5% from February and 4% from March 2025.
apnews.com apnews.com
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Iran is desperately trying to run the blockade of the straits of Hormuz. Their economy is in shambles. Meanwhile the Dow is 49,195
 
Phantasmal said:
2 waterways! They haven’t activated the Houthis, yet.
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At least there is a way around the Bab-el-Mandeb. It takes a lot of time... But it can be done.

Whatever else trump is, he is the worst negotiator ever. he has put America into an absolutely terrible negotiating position.
 
Walt said:
It is not a good solution, but it is a solution that has been used several times before. The Suez Canal gets closed every now and then, one time for 8 years(after the Six Day War). Without the Suez Canal, Bab-el-Mandeb kind of unimportant.
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Rerouting marine traffic around the Cape of Good Hope is not a viable alternative due to significantly longer transit times, increased fuel costs, and the limited capacity of existing pipelines, which can only handle a fraction of the oil that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Very large crude carriers cannot transit the Suez Canal fully laden anyway, which adds extra time and much expense and complexity to transshipment.

Additionally, this route poses risks such as rough seas and potential piracy, making it less efficient for global shipping needs.

  • Longer Routes: The Cape of Good Hope route adds substantial distance to shipping journeys. For example, a typical journey from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, to Rotterdam, Netherlands, increases from 19 days to 35 days.
  • Higher Fuel Costs: The longer transit times lead to increased fuel consumption, raising overall shipping costs significantly.
  • Combined, existing pipelines can only handle about 7-8 million barrels per day, which is far below the 20 million barrels that typically transit the Strait of Hormuz.

During the 2024 Red Sea Houthi attacks, many shipping lines rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, providing a real-world test of this alternative. Container shipping rates roughly doubled and transit times increased by 10–14 days.

The key lesson: the route works, but the global shipping fleet doesn’t have enough spare capacity to absorb the longer voyages without significant price increases.

Every ship spending an extra two weeks at sea is a ship that can’t make its next scheduled voyage.



Alternative Shipping Routes — Hormuz Strait Monitor

What happens when the world's most important oil chokepoint is blocked? These are the alternatives.
hormuzstraitmonitor.com hormuzstraitmonitor.com
 
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said:
Rerouting marine traffic around the Cape of Good Hope is not a viable alternative due to significantly longer transit times, increased fuel costs, and the limited capacity of existing pipelines, which can only handle a fraction of the oil that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Oh, you are correct. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and we want to get a bit of fuel out by the pipelines across Saudi Arabia, then we definitely need Bab-el-Mandeb.

I meant that if the Strait of Hormuz is open, we do not need Bab-el-Mandeb/Suez Canal. It certainly is very nice, but not irreplaceable.

trump has given Iran a crash course in how to hold the world ransom, and he does not seem to have any solution.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said:
The key lesson: the route works, but the global shipping fleet doesn’t have enough spare capacity to absorb the longer voyages without significant price increases.
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Every move of trump seems calculated to create significant price increases.
 
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