Joe Capitalist
Racism is a disease
Still no chart. Just like the Republiclowns impeachment inquiry. You got nothing.
But, just fort laughs, I googled it. Here's what I found:
Dow Jones Forecast 2024 – What Experts Are Saying?
Before we move on, I’d caution against putting too much weight into one-year targets. It’s extremely difficult to predict short-term moves in the market with any accuracy. Few on Wall Street have ever been able to do this successfully. We do however think the research, analysis, and commentary behind these forecasts can be informative.
Bank of America: bullish, Dow Jones price forecast of 39,000-40,000
Because of the Federal Reserve's significant success in tightening its monetary policy after more than a year of aggressive interest rate hikes and the continuous shrinking of its balance sheet, Bank of America is bullish on the stock market in 2024.
"We're bullish not because we expect the Fed to cut, but because of what the Fed has accomplished. Companies have adapted to higher rates and inflation."
It also helps that investors continue to focus on the possibility of an economic recession and are paying greater attention to negative than positive news.
"We are past maximum macro uncertainty. The market has absorbed significant geopolitical shocks already and the good news is we're talking about the bad news."
Deutsche Bank: bullish, Dow Jones price forecast of 40,000
According to Deutsche Bank's 2024 stock market outlook, the US economy is approaching a soft landing as inflation cools and GDP growth remains solid, and that's a great scenario for the stock market.
"Even if an economic recession does materialize in 2024, it shouldn't impact stock prices dramatically because most investors are anticipating it."
The bank forecast Dow Jones and SP500 to rise around 10% in 2024, up to 40,000 and 5,100 points, and if the economy dodges a recession, the gains could nearly double to about 19% in its bull-case scenario.
JPMorgan: bearish, Dow Jones price prediction of 33,000
JPMorgan said high equity valuations, high-interest rates, a weakening consumer, rising geopolitical risks, and a potential recession give it little confidence that stocks will move higher in 2024.
"We expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year with softening consumer trends at a time when investor positioning and sentiment have mostly reversed."
The bank's Dow Jones forecast for 2024 of around 33,000 points is explained by lackluster global earnings growth with a downside for equities from current levels.
"Equities are now richly valued with volatility near the historical low, while geopolitical and political risks remain elevated."
Morgan Stanley: neutral, Dow Jones price prediction of 35,000
Morgan Stanley anticipates a flat stock market in 2024 but notes that certain regions of the market are outperforming others. The corporation predicts that the highly narrow leadership of the mega-cap tech stocks will hold through the beginning of 2019 before eventually collapsing.
"The question for investors at this stage is whether the leaders can drag the laggards up to their level of performance or if the laggards will eventually overwhelm the leaders' ability to keep delivering in this challenging macro environment."
Morgan Stanley recommended investors avoid the high-priced tech stocks and instead focus on defensive growth stocks, typically found in the healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples sectors, as well as late-cycle cyclical stocks typically found in the industrials and energy sectors. Their Dow Jones forecast for 2024 is in line with the actual prices, although slightly bearish.
Goldman Sachs: neutral, Dow Jones price forecast of 37,000-38,000
Goldman Sachs forecast the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500 to finish 2024 slightly higher from current levels as stocks are stuck in a "fat and flat" range since 2022.
"As higher-for-longer interest rates make valuation expansion from here difficult to justify, our market forecasts are broadly in line with earnings growth. On a weighted basis, we expect 8% price returns and 10% total returns for Global equities over the next year, taking them towards the upper end of the Fat & Flat range that they have been in since 2022."
Corporate earnings should also remain solid next year, providing a buoy to stock prices, as long as a recession is averted.
"In the absence of recession, corporate earnings rarely fall. Nevertheless, the lack of strong profit growth and a high starting valuation (particularly in the US equity market), and low equity risk premia leaves an unexciting outlook overall on a risk-adjusted basis, relative to cash returns."
Societe Generale: neutral, Dow Jones price forecast of 37,500
The Dow Jones index should be in ‘buy-the-dip’ territory, as leading indicators for profits continue to improve. Yet, the journey to the end of the year should be far from smooth, as the bank expects a mild recession in the middle of the year, a credit market sell-off in 2Q, and ongoing quantitative tightening.
"In the US, the long-predicted recession will in our view belatedly materialize in 2024, most likely during the middle quarters of the year, though it stands to be brief and shallow."
Wells Fargo: neutral, Dow Jones price forecast of 36,000
Goat wets panties
