Be able to hit, or come close to hitting Moscow is a major move by the Ukrainians. They are also using that capability to hit logistic hubs far behind the line, even into Russia proper. This means that when the Ukrainian offensive begins, the Russian troops will have severe shortages.
The Russians seem to be depending partly on shock troops. They take a recruit, whether drafted, grabbed at work, or taken out of prison, give him a day of military training, give him a gun, and pump him full of drugs. If done right, that can win territory, with losses among people that Putin does not care about. If done wrong, they will be mowed down by machine guns, and do nothing but force the Ukrainians to spend $10 worth of bullets to kill each one.
Maybe I am too hopeful, but there is a real possibility that Ukraine will be able to cross the Dnieper River, and make for the Black Sea, cutting the land route from Russia to Crimea. Western river crossing military tech, while untested, is very good. If it works out, a big if, then a major Ukrainian victory is possible.
