moon
Satire for Sanity
That may or may not be what NATO intended- but the point is that the Russians believe it to be the next step. They've been betrayed too often.
Patrick Lawrence: Why Are the Russians Retreating in Ukraine? | Scheerpost
- Thread starter Scott
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That may or may not be what NATO intended- but the point is that the Russians believe it to be the next step. They've been betrayed too often.
I'm not sure if Russia thought NATO would do that, but I think they decided not to take the chance that they might. There's also the fact that the Ukrainian army had started a renewed assault on the Donbass mere days before Putin decided to start his military operation. He made it clear in his speech that he was starting the military operation in part to defend the Donbass republics.
Another country Putin thought was his friend has snubbed Russia by refusing to host its military for routine exercises
Armenia has refused to host Russia's military for routine exercises, another snub from a country President Vladimir Putin thought was an ally.
“At least this year, these drills won't take place," he said at a press conference, calling the drills "inappropriate in the current situation."
"Russia's military presence in Armenia not only fails to guarantee its security, but it raises security threats for Armenia," Pashinyan added, according to AP.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-ally-refuses-to-host-putins-military-2023-1
Armenia has refused to host Russia's military for routine exercises, another snub from a country President Vladimir Putin thought was an ally.
“At least this year, these drills won't take place," he said at a press conference, calling the drills "inappropriate in the current situation."
"Russia's military presence in Armenia not only fails to guarantee its security, but it raises security threats for Armenia," Pashinyan added, according to AP.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-ally-refuses-to-host-putins-military-2023-1
moon
Satire for Sanity
Uh yeah. What’s that got to do with my post?
moon
Satire for Sanity
A cancellation reduces friction;
Russia should be careful not to jeapordize its own relations with Turkey
They are:
March 2, 2022 12:15 JST
. Turkey rejects Russia's request for navy ships to pass Bosporus
Invoking the 1936 Montreux Convention, which gives Turkey the authority to restrict passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, Ankara politely told Moscow that it would not be allowed, Cavusoglu said.
"Russia wanted to transit four naval vessels on Feb 27-28 through the straits, but according to our records, three of them were not registered to Black Sea home bases. Hence, we told Russia not to transit these ships and Russia told us, they will not transit them," Cavusoglu told local Haber Turk TV in an interview aired Tuesday night. "We informed this today to all Montreux Convention states officially," he added.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/M...sia-s-request-for-navy-ships-to-pass-Bosporus
moon
Satire for Sanity
Not at all. The ships you mention are said to not be registered in Russian Black Sea ports.
Wrong again, anonymous .
Right again.
And neither is the frigate Admiral Gorshkov registered in the Black Sea. Which is why it’s going on a world cruise rather than to a combat zone.
Which is exactly what I’ve been saying all along.
You’re not doing well, moon.
But keep trying.
moon
Satire for Sanity
Right again.
And neither is the frigate Admiral Gorshkov registered in the Black Sea. Which is why it’s going on a world cruise rather than to a combat zone.
Which is exactly what I’ve been saying all along.
You’re not doing well, moon.
But keep trying.
I'm doing just fine, thank you. As the agreement states , Russian ships registered to Black Sea ports can travel through. The contention was that Turkey would stop them- as you implied.
You're not doing very well, anonymous.
Implied nothing. I said Turkey wouldn't allow Russian boats not registered to Black Sea bases to cross Turkish straits.
That includes the Admiral Gorshkov.
Hope they have a nice trip.
It's summer in the Indian Ocean. Great snorkeling in Andaman Islands I hear.
moon
Satire for Sanity
Nothing is set in stone.
Hope they have a nice trip.
It's summer in the Indian Ocean. Great snorkeling in Andaman Islands I hear.
It can be very useful in freeing Syria from uninvited assholes from Tarsus.
The war takes an unexpected turn that Putin did not warn the alt right about, so they claim the war is opaque? Maybe the problem is that Putin is just not a good source of information.
https://www.economist.com/interacti...ligence-is-piercing-the-fog-of-war-in-ukraine
I agree in part. There is certainly a scarcity of international reporters in the field, but there are some, at least on the Russian side. As you know, I greatly admire the work of Canadian American journalist Eva Bartlett, and there is also an American journalist named Patrick Lancaster that reports from the Russian side as well.
The problem with the Ukrainian side is that they allow almost no reporters on the front of any nationality. Instead, Ukrainian officials tell western reporters things and western reporters generally just parrot whatever they're told. The good news is that as the front line has changed, and thus who's in charge of the area, truths can be revealed. I remember some stories of alleged mass graves that, when Eva Bartlett went to investigate after the front line had changed, found out were outright lies. Here's an example:
Here’s what I found at the reported ‘mass grave’ near Mariupol | RT
Patrick Lawrence is not "alt right". He's anti deep state. He criticizes the Biden administration because they're the ones currently riding the deep state horse. When Trump was in power, he was just as cutting. Here's an article from February 2020 on Trump's handling of the Israeli palestinian conflict:
Patrick Lawrence: Trump's weakness for power | patricklawrence.us
The subtitle in the article:
**
Coercive might and money may be all that matter in Manhattan real estate. But they are bound to sink the president’s take-all-you-want “deal of the century” for Israel.
**
Ironically, I think the -reason- that Patrick Lawrence was caught off guard when Russia decided to retreat from Kherson city is because he wasn't looking at certain online Russian sources. I believe I remember another poster here commenting on the fact that online Russian sources had been commenting that Russia would be retreating from Kherson city soon. From what I've seen, Patrick prefers his sources to be western.
An interesting article. The second line you mentioned is actually part of a larger paragraph that I think bears mentioning in full, along with the previous one, and the one that followed:
**
In a recent talk, General Sir Jim Hockenhull, who ran British defence intelligence until 2022, compared old-fashioned intelligence to assembling a jigsaw puzzle without the lid, showing the complete picture, or all the pieces. “What’s happening with open source is that we still don’t have the lid…but what we have is an almost infinite number of jigsaw pieces.” The result, he said, was that one could assemble “an almost infinite number of pictures”.
That creates “splintered realities”, says Mr Ford. He is working on an open-source narrative history of the war, and reckons it can be done “at what might be considered us intelligence standards”—a remarkable acceleration of military history. But he acknowledges that the infinite jigsaw poses serious challenges. One is the problem of self-deception: seeing the war “as we want to see it, rather than as it is”. Images of cold and hungry Russian recruits huddled in trenches paint a picture of shambolic mobilisation. In practice, Western and Ukrainian officials say they are worried about the units being formed out of sight.
The other problem is seeing what belligerents want you to see. In the early months of the war, videos showed strike after strike by Ukraine’s Bayraktar tb2 drones, many set to catchy music. It was a piece of theatre. “Ukraine recognised very quickly as part of an extremely effective information operations strategy that this was some of the best footage they had,” noted Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank, speaking on a recent podcast. “And so the Ukrainains stored up a lot of that footage and kept drip-feeding it, having got rid of date, time and location stamps to give the impression this was still a major thing a couple of months in.”
**
That last paragraph in particular is rather revealing of Ukraine's strategy. It's right up there with their claims of retaking Crimea, along with the U.S. going along for the narrative ride. I think the truth is as Patrick Lawrence paints it in his article. Quoting from it:
**
All signs of what was to come. Now to signs of what is to come.
One, there is Surovikin’s concern about protecting the combat readiness of the troops now regrouped on the Dnieper’s east bank. Two, there is the vast call-up of Russian reserves announced last summer: I read some 80,000 of the 300,000 reservists to be mustered out are already in place in Ukraine. Three, there is Moscow’s claim—respect it or not, it is a “fact on the ground”—that Kherson region is Russian territory now and Kherson is the provincial capital.
I add one and one and one and get this: It is very likely Surovikin, who is putting his own plans and people in place like some new-broom corporate CEO, has taken one step back prior to taking two forward. I don’t think anyone too far from the Russian high command can say when, but the signs just enumerated indicate that a major new offensive is in the offing at some point in the new year.
**
A cold winter has arrived in Ukraine. Now to see what comes in the spring.
Alt right is characterized by among other things believing there is a secret "deep state" that must be defeated. So your argument that he is not alt right is contradicted by your argument he is alt right.
Maybe I am being too tough on him, but not by much. Back to this issue...
Putting together useful intelligence out of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is difficult, but that is true with any war. What is not lacking here is huge amounts of raw data. This is the least opaque war there has ever been. This is a war that soldiers can tweet from the frontlines. They can post pictures, and even videos as combat happens.
There are a few films of real tank battles in WWII, but only a few. There are a few films of tanks being attacked every day out of Ukraine.
It reminds me of the joke:
You can meet someone today who will ask you if you want to see a single photo of their great grandfather. Imagine what it will be like a hundred years from now. Your great grandchild will ask people if they want to see ten thousand photos of you.
Here is one of the few tank battles filmed during WWII. It happened over a hundred thousand times, but this is the only one I can think of that was reasonably filmed.
YouTube has been getting chicken about showing violence. It does involve people dying, so maybe it should be age restricted.
Alt left holds the same thing. Basically, those outside the mainstream believe that the deep state controls much of the left -and- the right and this they call the deep state. That's my personal belief as well.
You're talking of things like combat intelligence, and there I can agree. The issue that Patrick Lawrence highlights is the absolute dearth of accurate information that is being fed to the public at large. Your own article pointed that out quite clearly as I mentioned in my last post. Quoting the relevant paragraph once more:
**
The other problem is seeing what belligerents want you to see. In the early months of the war, videos showed strike after strike by Ukraine’s Bayraktar tb2 drones, many set to catchy music. It was a piece of theatre. “Ukraine recognised very quickly as part of an extremely effective information operations strategy that this was some of the best footage they had,” noted Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank, speaking on a recent podcast. “And so the Ukrainains stored up a lot of that footage and kept drip-feeding it, having got rid of date, time and location stamps to give the impression this was still a major thing a couple of months in.”
**
And then there are made up events, such as the alleged mass grave that Ukrainian officials cooked up in Mariupol which I brought up in post #136:
Patrick Lawrence: Why Are the Russians Retreating in Ukraine? | Scheerpost, Post #136