Patrick Lawrence: Why Are the Russians Retreating in Ukraine? | Scheerpost

Phoenyx said:
The Brit maggot?
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Yeah- this is the guy;

maggot
th
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He'll turn up if you ever post in support of justice, the rule of international law or Socialism.


Haw, haw............................haw.
 
moon said:
Yeah- this is the guy;

maggot



He'll turn up if you ever post in support of justice, the rule of international law or Socialism.


Haw, haw............................haw.
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I see. I'm almost certain I've seen that face before...
 
Phoenyx said:
Just read the article from Patrick Lawrence with the same name as the title of this thread on Scheerpost today, found it quite interesting, thought some here might as well. Hopefully room for some constructive discussion on it. Here's the introduction to the article:

**
November 12, 2022

The most opaque war in my lifetime and probably yours, the war we can hardly see because the reporting is so bad, just took an unexpected turn. There must be someone somewhere who anticipated the retreat of Russian forces from Kherson, the key Ukrainian city along the southern end of the Dnieper River, but I haven’t run across such a person. Russia’s move certainly came as an abrupt surprise to me.

How shall we understand this development? What comes now? As we attempt answers, it is important neither to underestimate nor overestimate the significance of Russia’s withdrawal from the only provincial capital it has held since its intervention began last February.

The New York Times ran a piece covering this development last Thursday. It is worth reading for some of the detail the reporter included; it also has a map of the Kherson region and a useful photograph of the Dnieper River that shows Kherson City on the west bank and the east bank opposite, to which Russian troops have retreated.
**

I thought I'd include a little from the center of the article that highlights a theory that I'd been holding but hadn't seen voiced before, namely that this is a -temporary- tactical retreat:

**
All signs of what was to come. Now to signs of what is to come.

One, there is Surovikin’s concern about protecting the combat readiness of the troops now regrouped on the Dnieper’s east bank. Two, there is the vast call-up of Russian reserves announced last summer: I read some 80,000 of the 300,000 reservists to be mustered out are already in place in Ukraine. Three, there is Moscow’s claim—respect it or not, it is a “fact on the ground”—that Kherson region is Russian territory now and Kherson is the provincial capital.

I add one and one and one and get this: It is very likely Surovikin, who is putting his own plans and people in place like some new-broom corporate CEO, has taken one step back prior to taking two forward. I don’t think anyone too far from the Russian high command can say when, but the signs just enumerated indicate that a major new offensive is in the offing at some point in the new year.
**


Finally, Patrick goes into how even the U.S., vis a vis Joint Chiefs chairman Mark Milley, has started to talk of possible diplomatic solutions. I for one certainly hope that this war ends with a diplomatic solution, the sooner, the better.
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I thi k i mentioned this to you on DP.
The problem is the Biden admin wants NONE OF IT. and Zelensky wants NONE OF IT
and Zelensky is calling the shots of our war policy
 
Ukraine will get fast tracked into NATO
That means the war really doesnt end, there will be an eventual ceasefire, but having Ukraine in NATO is
a constant irritant to Russia, so any cease fire will always have flare ups.

NATO expansion is the root of all conflict with Russia
 
dukkha said:
he's a GOOD GUY. (Primavera) very smart i think a chemical engineer
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He's a parasite- a racist capitalist creepo misogynist. His chemistry expertise extends to developing sphincter ointments.

Still, each to his own.


Haw, haw................................haw.
 
floridafan said:
Russia had secure orders before they invaded Ukraine. Time for a better excuse.
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Yep, the NATO narrative is false. Russia is a mega nuke country that can obliterate any countries that try to invade mother Russia. No one has bombed Moscow or any part of Russia because they know this.

Putin wants Sevastopol to be internationally recognized as part of Russia. IMO, That is his ultimate goal.

Notice that no one ever mentions Obama handing the Ukrainian Crimea to Pootie on a silver platter. No one talks about Crimea.
 
Bigdog said:
Yep, the NATO narrative is false. Russia is a mega nuke country that can obliterate any countries that try to invade mother Russia. No one has bombed Moscow or any part of Russia because they know this.

Putin wants Sevastopol to be internationally recognized as part of Russia. IMO, That is his ultimate goal.

Notice that no one ever mentions Obama handing the Ukrainian Crimea to Pootie on a silver platter. No one talks about Crimea.
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Doews that have something to do with the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Every moment of every day, there is another excuse.
 
floridafan said:
Doews that have something to do with the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Every moment of every day, there is another excuse.
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Yes, it was the beginning of annexation of part of Ukraine, and the war in Donbas.

Ukraine tried to raise the rent on Sevastopol so Pootie invaded and took the port.
 
Bigdog said:
Yes, it was the beginning of annexation of part of Ukraine, and the war in Donbas.

Ukraine tried to raise the rent on Sevastopol so Pootie invaded and took the port.
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I am unable to count all of the excuses you have used to justify Russian invasion. It must be in the dozens.Now we know what a 3rd rate military power Russia is.
 
floridafan said:
I am unable to count all of the excuses you have used to justify Russian invasion. It must be in the dozens.Now we know what a 3rd rate military power Russia is.
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I have never justified Russia's invasion. You must have me confused with someone else.

I am only sharing my opinion about what happened.
 
Bigdog said:
Yes, it was the beginning of annexation of part of Ukraine, and the war in Donbas.

Ukraine tried to raise the rent on Sevastopol so Pootie invaded and took the port.
Click to expand...

This is the first time I even heard that Ukraine tried to raise the rent in Sevastopol, let alone that this was why Putin started his military operation in Ukraine. Based on what I've read, I've come to the same conclusion as former Swiss Intelligence Officer Jacques Baud, namely that Putin decided to begin his operation due to the Ukrainian military's offensive on the Donbass republics. I started a thread that gets into an article written by Jacques Baud on the subject. It can be seen here:

Former Swiss Intelligence Officer blows the whistle on West's Ukraine War Narrative | justplainpolitics.com
 
Phoenyx said:
Just read the article from Patrick Lawrence with the same name as the title of this thread on Scheerpost today, found it quite interesting, thought some here might as well. Hopefully room for some constructive discussion on it. Here's the introduction to the article:

**
November 12, 2022

The most opaque war in my lifetime and probably yours, the war we can hardly see because the reporting is so bad, just took an unexpected turn. There must be someone somewhere who anticipated the retreat of Russian forces from Kherson, the key Ukrainian city along the southern end of the Dnieper River, but I haven’t run across such a person. Russia’s move certainly came as an abrupt surprise to me.

How shall we understand this development? What comes now? As we attempt answers, it is important neither to underestimate nor overestimate the significance of Russia’s withdrawal from the only provincial capital it has held since its intervention began last February.

The New York Times ran a piece covering this development last Thursday. It is worth reading for some of the detail the reporter included; it also has a map of the Kherson region and a useful photograph of the Dnieper River that shows Kherson City on the west bank and the east bank opposite, to which Russian troops have retreated.
**

I thought I'd include a little from the center of the article that highlights a theory that I'd been holding but hadn't seen voiced before, namely that this is a -temporary- tactical retreat:

**
All signs of what was to come. Now to signs of what is to come.

One, there is Surovikin’s concern about protecting the combat readiness of the troops now regrouped on the Dnieper’s east bank. Two, there is the vast call-up of Russian reserves announced last summer: I read some 80,000 of the 300,000 reservists to be mustered out are already in place in Ukraine. Three, there is Moscow’s claim—respect it or not, it is a “fact on the ground”—that Kherson region is Russian territory now and Kherson is the provincial capital.

I add one and one and one and get this: It is very likely Surovikin, who is putting his own plans and people in place like some new-broom corporate CEO, has taken one step back prior to taking two forward. I don’t think anyone too far from the Russian high command can say when, but the signs just enumerated indicate that a major new offensive is in the offing at some point in the new year.
**


Finally, Patrick goes into how even the U.S., vis a vis Joint Chiefs chairman Mark Milley, has started to talk of possible diplomatic solutions. I for one certainly hope that this war ends with a diplomatic solution, the sooner, the better.
Click to expand...

Some good points made here but I, for whatever it's worth, hope there is not a diplomatic solution. I think that would be bad for the world.
 
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