The Economist: U.S. Facing 'Perfect Storm' for 2008-Like Housing Crisis

Removing single family zoning will likely not do much but it’s an excellent move. Nothing to do with “revolution”. Major urban areas need increased density, not a large number of single family homes. NIMBYism is a scorn on society and plays a major role in why housing prices are what they are. NIMBYism isn’t exclusive to Boomers but Boomers have an advanced degree in it

There is an attempt to degrade the desirability of the suburbs, that is what eliminating single family housing is about, which will likely cause property values to fall. Hammering landlords by removing property rights has the same effect.
 
There is an attempt to degrade the desirability of the suburbs, that is what eliminating single family housing is about, which will likely cause property values to fall. Hammering landlords by removing property rights has the same effect.

It’s mostly being done in urban areas but good, nothing wrong with doing it in the suburbs either. People act like there isn’t poverty in the suburbs and they are some pristine Leave It To Beaver 1950 type environment.

Suburbs can add more housing as well. The population of our country will continue to grow and people need a place to live. Yet somehow people think we don’t need to add new supply.
 
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I think the same will happen in the UK and Europe as well.

As banks make risky loans, they borrow from each other (even internationally) to cover them. When the loans go bad en masse, the banks are left holding the empty sack.
The bad loans between banks have to unwind. That's why it spreads internationally.

In the 2008 crash, German banks were hit particularly hard because they were covering for quite a bit of the gambling being done by U.S. banks.

Today, it's different. It's not speculation causing the issues here. It's about an ongoing economic depression (yes, worldwide) that started with economic shutdowns over Covid. Continued interference by socialist political parties (such as by Democrats in the States) is simply extending and worsening the economic depression. Our last economic depression lasted 9 years after the 2008 crash and socialist interference by the Obama administration. The current one has already lasted 3 years and is far worse. Businesses have been utterly destroyed in this depression. Those businesses are not coming back. Such is the cost of being a 'non-essential' business.

How long this current economic depression will last remains to be seen.
 
lots of dynamics in play here.

prices are already falling, sales are already down 20% and high interest isnt going away very soon.

all this makes it hard for someone already in a home to move because selling is hard and your equity is down quite a bit so you wont move if you dont have to.
that means new construction will drift off dragging a whole other market into the mix.

lots of dominoes to fall, all of them bad.

Quite right. The construction trade and all their suppliers are suffering as well.
 
Maybe the guy will be right but here's my issue with what he's saying. In 2008 we had the perfect storm of rising interest rates and and all those teaser loans coming due at the same time. That isn't the case today. Far more discipline in lending practices and far more people have built up equity in their homes to withstand a slow down. I also disagree with the idea that we overbuilt. We still haven't built enough housing in this country. And demand may slow because of rising rates but demand for housing is still strong.

I'm not suggesting prices won't drop. We've already seem permits and new housing starts fall. But as of now, it's not looking like massive price drops.

Here I agree. The speculation that caused the 2008 crash isn't there. There is no balloon to pop.
 
NOTICE: I am in this thread violating my usual practice of only commenting on things that I have studied and made up my mind about. I dont know what is going to happen with housing going forwards but I do know that the WOKE are playing with fire on multiple fronts.
 
Jose Torres predicted that within the next few years, housing prices could drop up to 25 percent, and that they will begin to decline in early 2023, which could see double-digit drops in prices.

I believe this prediction to be wrong for several reasons:

* Inflation has caused the high property values, along with market demand.
* While demand dwindles, inflation does not.
* The government is also affected by this, and will find it is short of money again.
* The government will try to print money and inflate their way out of it.
* Property values are now in dollars that are worth less, so prices go up. Remember, there is always a certain amount of demand.
* The Fed might try to lower interest rates again to 'stimulate' the economy. This causes easy money, which will find it's way into speculation.
* The economy 'roars' once again on some speculative scheme. During this time, property values will skyrocket. The speculative scheme will likely involve property again.
* Sooner or later, the pyramid scheme collapses once again. This time, it will be worldwide, possibly with a rejection of fiat currency, again worldwide. Deflation takes hold and finally corrects all those years of inflation. No government can stop it.

During that time, cash is king. Property values and other real values are king.

There's a reason Warren Buffet invested so heavily in railways.
 
It will be interesting to see what happens as a result of the Revolution hammering landlords and eliminating single family housing zoning. The next thing they would like to do is to remove a lot of housing from private ownership and place it with WOKE run non-profits, though it is not clear to me how they intend to get there.

Won't happen. Civil war would break out if they tried that stunt.
 
Just about every bubble pops eventually!

The Real Estate Price Bubble is no exception.

Unless you are a homeowner planning on downsizing to a less expensive dwelling, you better hang on to what you have now.

If you buy a house now, you will be paying a lot more for it than you will be able to get back in the short run.

Anything shot into the air will rise until it starts falling back down to earth.

Most working families that do not own homes already, are already priced out of today's home market, by today's crazy expensive prices.

It's going to take some new FHA housing programs to get roofs over heads and prevent homelessness for millions of Americans.

And City Leaders and builders are going to have to start building Low-income housing again to keep up with the demand for them.

City Leaders are a lot responsible for the lack of low-income housing by putting moratoriums on them. And Builders are complaining they can't find enough qualified workers that want to work in the Builder Trades anymore.

Voting Republican is not going to do anything to help the Housing bubble crisis- unless you own your own Mar-a-lago- then I think your GOOD!

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Just about every bubble pops eventually!

The Real Estate Bubble is no exception.

Unless you area homeowner planning on downsizing to a less expensive dwelling, you better hang on to what you have now.

If you buy a house now, you will be paying a lot more for it than you will be able to get back in the short run.

Anything shot into the air will rise until it starts falling back down to earth.

Most working families that do not own homes already, are already priced out of today's home market, by today's crazy expensive prices.

It's going to take some new FHA housing programs to get roofs over heads and prevent homelessness for millions of Americans.

And builders are going to have to start building Low-income housing again to keep up with the demand for them.

Voting Republican is not going to do anything to help the Housing crisis!

This thread is really nothing to do with voting but since you brought it up voting Democratic will do what?
 
This thread is really nothing to do with voting but since you brought it up voting Democratic will do what?

They will create some new FHA proposals. They will start a federal program to help build low-income housing where it is needed.

Republicans want to end the FHA and stop all new low-income housing!
 
They will create some new FHA proposals. They will start a federal program to help build low-income housing where it is needed.

Republicans want to end the FHA and stop all new low-income housing!

LOL! What do they say in Texas? Bless your heart?

Ok, I'll play. When are they going to pass this legislation to building thousands? hundreds of thousands? millions? of units?

Where are they going to build it? (In San Francisco we passed a $1 billion bill to help the homeless and build housing for them and we literally can't build the housing because of NIMBYs and the City not giving approval.)

Housing is a state and local thing. The hardest places to build are liberal dominated areas along the coast. Why do you think so many people are moving to places like Texas? Texas, a red state, actually lets you build housing. What a novel idea.

But yeah, somehow the Federal gov't is going to magically step in at some unannounced time in the future? and start building all kinds of housing like they did the projects and urban renewal back in the mid 20th century? That worked wonderfully didn't it.
 
LOL! What do they say in Texas? Bless your heart?

Ok, I'll play. When are they going to pass this legislation to building thousands? hundreds of thousands? millions? of units?

Where are they going to build it? (In San Francisco we passed a $1 billion bill to help the homeless and build housing for them and we literally can't build the housing because of NIMBYs and the City not giving approval.)

Housing is a state and local thing. The hardest places to build are liberal dominated areas along the coast. Why do you think so many people are moving to places like Texas? Texas, a red state, actually lets you build housing. What a novel idea.

But yeah, somehow the Federal gov't is going to magically step in at some unannounced time in the future? and start building all kinds of housing like they did the projects and urban renewal back in the mid 20th century? That worked wonderfully didn't it.

I am not sure where any of us older American Baby Boomers would be right now, had the government not took charge and created THE FHA and helped build Post-War affordable homes and communities.

I know I was raised in such low income FIRST HOME housing and I bet you lived in low-income FIRST HOME housing when you grew up as well! Our first home when I was a kid was a modest 3 bedroom brick home with only one bath and a one car garage.

You want people to be able to afford housing don't you?
 
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