Hello ThatOwlWoman,
Denial is the strongest plank of the current WH administration.
DT said the decision to open the country back up would be the most important decision he has to make.
Looks like he is rushing it for political reasons because the impacted economy does not reflect well on his election chances.
I am a student of mathematics. I have been studying the numbers. I can tell you that what the president said yesterday, that 'the peak is behind us,'
is not correct.
The numbers are still going up, up, up.
There are some promising indications in the rate of rise. It does appear we are seeing the rate of rise getting smaller. But we will not be at the peak until the rate of increase in Active Cases reaches zero.
Active Cases will reach a peak when the number of new cases is smaller than the number of newly resolved cases. (Resolved cases being the number of recoveries and deaths)
Here's the math: (Total Cases) - (Recoveries + Deaths) = Active Cases.
We need to see the Active Cases reach a peak, and then begin falling before we are 'past the peak.' That has not occurred yet.
I have tracked the numbers daily for the past week.
I began a thread dedicated to identifying the peak.
The information is all here, with links, at:
Corona Virus Peak Watch Thread
Here is what the numbers show:
Date ... Cases ......Difference from previous day
4-9 ... 420,611
4-10 ... 451,236 ........ +30,625
4-11 ... 479,252 ........ +28,016
4-12 ... 505,561 ........ +26,309
4-13 ... 526,353 ........ +20,792
4-14 ... 549,019 ........ +22,666
4-15 ... 566,859 ........ +17,840
You see what's happening?
The rise in Active Cases is getting smaller. That's a good thing!
When that difference gets to zero, we are at the peak of Active Cases.
But we are not there yet.