blackascoal
The Force is With Me
Forbes: Why Russia Cannot Become Our Friend: Memo to President Trump
Regrettably, the prospects for a successful negotiation*with Putin over the “unsatisfactory condition of Russian-American relations” are near zero for the following reasons: The Putin regime requires confrontation with the US for its very survival, while Trump must deliver “beautiful deals” that “make American great again.” If Trump were to sign a deal which does not yield real enforceable concessions by Putin on Crimea, east Ukraine, or the Middle East, Trump’s deal-making image would be shattered along with his presidency.
As Trump prepares to go head-to-head with Putin, he must understand what Germany’s Angela Merkel describes as Putin’s “parallel world.” In any negotiation, Putin will be fighting for the survival of his regime and himself. Putin has remarkably turned Ronald Reagan’s “evil empire” on its head. According to the Kremlin narrative, it is the United States and its puppet NATO that are intent on dismembering Russia. The US has become the “evil empire” bent on imposing its corrupt political (after WikiLeaks) and civilizational values on Russia, the last great bastion of Christianity, patriotism, morality, and good will.
Putin justifies his repression of his own people, his sacrifice of economic welfare, his isolation of Russia, and his risky military adventurism as the necessary defense of a “besieged fortress.” Any deal with Trump that establishes a “satisfactory condition” of Russian-American relations removes the justification for Putin’s kleptocracy, Russia’s costly military buildup, and for Putin himself.
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Putin’s Stalinesque claim that all social and political unrest is instigated from abroad renders virtually every truckers’ strike, miners’ protest, or critical Facebook posting a CIA, US State Department, or Germany BND operation. External aggression and internal repression blur the distinction between the armed services and national guards and militias which are tasked with domestic security. Putin’s National Guard, commanded by a loyalist, numbers close to 400,000 plus tanks, helicopters, and tanks to “fight terrorism.” A “terrorist” in Putin’s vocabulary is anyone who poses a threat to “the Russian state’” namely to Putin himself.
The Russian narrative claims its struggle is for the future of civilization itself. Russia must therefore be prepared to deploy its nuclear weapons “as a primary tool for foreign policy coercion.” Russia has explicitly singled out former Soviet bloc countries that have entered or are entering the Western orbit as a clear and present danger. If this threat escalates, Russia must be prepared to intervene. If Russian forces are outgunned, there is always the nuclear option.
The Russian narrative claims its struggle is for the future of civilization itself. Russia must therefore be prepared to deploy its nuclear weapons “as a primary tool for foreign policy coercion.” Russia has explicitly singled out former Soviet bloc countries that have entered or are entering the Western orbit as a clear and present danger. If this threat escalates, Russia must be prepared to intervene. If Russian forces are outgunned, there is always the nuclear option.
Putin’s cards are, however, stronger than they appear. Internal dissent has been smashed. He has centralized power in his own hands, while Trump must work with allies, who are being pulled apart by national interests and by Russian meddling. Putin’s propaganda machine has kept the Russian people on board despite a defense buildup (to 5.4 percent of GDP) at the sacrifice of living standards (down 15 percent) and public health. Putin can rattle the nuclear saber to offset the US’s stronger military. Unlike the US presidential cycle that requires quick results, Putin can play a long hand with the presumption that time is on his side.
In his few public statements on the subject, Trump has declared that the US and Russia’s shared interest in fighting ISIS will provide the foundation for improved relations. Despite frenetic efforts of the outgoing Secretary of State to find this common ground, the outgoing US Secretary of Defense declared in frustration that the Russians “haven’t done anything to fight ISIS.”* In fact, Russia does not perceive itself, despite its own 20 million ethnic Muslims, at risk from Islamic terrorism. Russia has*suffered*only eight Islamic terrorist attacks, killing 708, mostly in remote regions. Putin has used terrorist incidents for political advantage. In Chechnya, Putin has a private army led by a loyalist ready to kill not only terrorists but their*families. Putin is confident his police state can infiltrate Islamic groups. So far, Russia’s Syrian air war has targeted regime opponents, not ISIS. Events do not support the notion that Russia is a natural ally against Islamic extremism.
The Middle East offers few prospects for agreement. Iran and Russia are allies, have strong commercial ties, and Iran is the world’s largest supporter of international terrorism, which destabilizes the Western world, to Russia’s delight. Russia has demonstrated that it will use all its military power to keep client Assad in power. Nor does Russia want to help Europe with its refugee crisis because the influx of Middle Easterners is destabilizing the European Union, whose disintegration is one of Putin’s major goals.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulro...-friend-memo-to-president-trump/#1356e0d17cda
Regrettably, the prospects for a successful negotiation*with Putin over the “unsatisfactory condition of Russian-American relations” are near zero for the following reasons: The Putin regime requires confrontation with the US for its very survival, while Trump must deliver “beautiful deals” that “make American great again.” If Trump were to sign a deal which does not yield real enforceable concessions by Putin on Crimea, east Ukraine, or the Middle East, Trump’s deal-making image would be shattered along with his presidency.
As Trump prepares to go head-to-head with Putin, he must understand what Germany’s Angela Merkel describes as Putin’s “parallel world.” In any negotiation, Putin will be fighting for the survival of his regime and himself. Putin has remarkably turned Ronald Reagan’s “evil empire” on its head. According to the Kremlin narrative, it is the United States and its puppet NATO that are intent on dismembering Russia. The US has become the “evil empire” bent on imposing its corrupt political (after WikiLeaks) and civilizational values on Russia, the last great bastion of Christianity, patriotism, morality, and good will.
Putin justifies his repression of his own people, his sacrifice of economic welfare, his isolation of Russia, and his risky military adventurism as the necessary defense of a “besieged fortress.” Any deal with Trump that establishes a “satisfactory condition” of Russian-American relations removes the justification for Putin’s kleptocracy, Russia’s costly military buildup, and for Putin himself.
--
Putin’s Stalinesque claim that all social and political unrest is instigated from abroad renders virtually every truckers’ strike, miners’ protest, or critical Facebook posting a CIA, US State Department, or Germany BND operation. External aggression and internal repression blur the distinction between the armed services and national guards and militias which are tasked with domestic security. Putin’s National Guard, commanded by a loyalist, numbers close to 400,000 plus tanks, helicopters, and tanks to “fight terrorism.” A “terrorist” in Putin’s vocabulary is anyone who poses a threat to “the Russian state’” namely to Putin himself.
The Russian narrative claims its struggle is for the future of civilization itself. Russia must therefore be prepared to deploy its nuclear weapons “as a primary tool for foreign policy coercion.” Russia has explicitly singled out former Soviet bloc countries that have entered or are entering the Western orbit as a clear and present danger. If this threat escalates, Russia must be prepared to intervene. If Russian forces are outgunned, there is always the nuclear option.
The Russian narrative claims its struggle is for the future of civilization itself. Russia must therefore be prepared to deploy its nuclear weapons “as a primary tool for foreign policy coercion.” Russia has explicitly singled out former Soviet bloc countries that have entered or are entering the Western orbit as a clear and present danger. If this threat escalates, Russia must be prepared to intervene. If Russian forces are outgunned, there is always the nuclear option.
Putin’s cards are, however, stronger than they appear. Internal dissent has been smashed. He has centralized power in his own hands, while Trump must work with allies, who are being pulled apart by national interests and by Russian meddling. Putin’s propaganda machine has kept the Russian people on board despite a defense buildup (to 5.4 percent of GDP) at the sacrifice of living standards (down 15 percent) and public health. Putin can rattle the nuclear saber to offset the US’s stronger military. Unlike the US presidential cycle that requires quick results, Putin can play a long hand with the presumption that time is on his side.
In his few public statements on the subject, Trump has declared that the US and Russia’s shared interest in fighting ISIS will provide the foundation for improved relations. Despite frenetic efforts of the outgoing Secretary of State to find this common ground, the outgoing US Secretary of Defense declared in frustration that the Russians “haven’t done anything to fight ISIS.”* In fact, Russia does not perceive itself, despite its own 20 million ethnic Muslims, at risk from Islamic terrorism. Russia has*suffered*only eight Islamic terrorist attacks, killing 708, mostly in remote regions. Putin has used terrorist incidents for political advantage. In Chechnya, Putin has a private army led by a loyalist ready to kill not only terrorists but their*families. Putin is confident his police state can infiltrate Islamic groups. So far, Russia’s Syrian air war has targeted regime opponents, not ISIS. Events do not support the notion that Russia is a natural ally against Islamic extremism.
The Middle East offers few prospects for agreement. Iran and Russia are allies, have strong commercial ties, and Iran is the world’s largest supporter of international terrorism, which destabilizes the Western world, to Russia’s delight. Russia has demonstrated that it will use all its military power to keep client Assad in power. Nor does Russia want to help Europe with its refugee crisis because the influx of Middle Easterners is destabilizing the European Union, whose disintegration is one of Putin’s major goals.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulro...-friend-memo-to-president-trump/#1356e0d17cda
