Oh Dear

Thing1 said:
His reaction to Brexit, from the golf course, was deplorable. They could just run that as a commercial for the next few months & win.

I also think this poll reflects reality setting in for Sanders supporters. Where before they would just knee-jerk a "no way" for Hillary to pollsters, they're now realizing it's either her or Trump.

I really think this one is over. I don't think Trump gets within single digits once between now & November.
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I wouldn't start making any bets till after the conventions. From a polling standpoint Trump is where he was at a few months ago. I still think the data clearly shows him losing but it's not over yet.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I wouldn't start making any bets till after the conventions. From a polling standpoint Trump is where he was at a few months ago. I still think the data clearly shows him losing but it's not over yet.
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Anything could happen, for sure - and it has certainly been a wild, unpredictable year.

But even before this latest set of polls, the vast majority of national polls had Trump right around 40% or below. I think those voters who ever could support him are already on board. He's so polarizing that just about everyone has made up their mind about him one way or the other. He has a long, tough road to earn each percent he's going to need to win over to get to the high 40's, which is the minimum of where he'll need to be to win.

As polarizing as Hillary is, I think voters see her as relatively safe compared to Trump, and she has polled in the mid to high 40's fairly consistently already. I think people tend to see her as a 3rd Obama term. As much as they might want change, Obama does have a 52% approval right now, so safe will likely win the day in the end.
 
tsuke said:
of course. Although with brexit and trump and to some extent sanders (anti free trade) its already been a very very good year for nationalism :)
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Well that's a fucking scary thought. Have you ever studied any history? The British Empire and a million young men died on the banks of the Somme due to nationalism. Nationalism and nativism got Japan, nuked, scorched and bombed into ruble. Natiolism left four million French men dead and the third Republic died at Verdun. Do you have even the foggiest notion of the consequences of nationalism or are you that uninformed?

The best definition of nationalism I've ever heard is, mass public psychosis. Patriotism is great and I'm proud to be one but nationalism is a disease.
 
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Thing1 said:
Anything could happen, for sure - and it has certainly been a wild, unpredictable year.

But even before this latest set of polls, the vast majority of national polls had Trump right around 40% or below. I think those voters who ever could support him are already on board. He's so polarizing that just about everyone has made up their mind about him one way or the other. He has a long, tough road to earn each percent he's going to need to win over to get to the high 40's, which is the minimum of where he'll need to be to win.

As polarizing as Hillary is, I think voters see her as relatively safe compared to Trump, and she has polled in the mid to high 40's fairly consistently already. I think people tend to see her as a 3rd Obama term. As much as they might want change, Obama does have a 52% approval right now, so safe will likely win the day in the end.
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Well I think that's it in a nutshell. Trump has alienated too many groups and I just don't think there's enough red necks and old white conservative men to get him elected.

Having said that there's a lot of idiots in this country...
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Well I think that's it in a nutshell. Trump has alienated too many groups and I just don't think there's enough red necks and old white conservative men to get him elected.

Having said that there's a lot of idiots in this country...
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they are being lied to by the likes of fox news
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Well I think that's it in a nutshell. Trump has alienated too many groups and I just don't think there's enough red necks and old white conservative men to get him elected.

Having said that there's a lot of idiots in this country...
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I think you are correct in terms of alienation at least. Political insulting rhetoric mixed with Trumps rapid fire brain farts is no way to win an election
 
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