PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
ha!.....I see what you did there......you inserted your fantasy life into reality, you sly dog.......
Electoral discussion... who gets what States?
- Thread starter Jarod
- Start date
ha!.....I see what you did there......you inserted your fantasy life into reality, you sly dog.......
I think I saw something the other day where trump was only a couple points behind clinton in new jersey
No, she is not safe in the ones I bolded.
Michigan - Clinton +4
New Jersey - Clinton +4
New Hampshire - Tie
Oregon - Trump +2
source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
I think the oldest poll is from the 27th of May.
I don't know the quality of the polls there though.
Hard to say that clinton is safe in a state where trump is up by 2, and tied in another. Being up by 4 in michigan and jersey is ok.. but I dont think that puts her in the safe zone, and given how those are traditionally strong democrat states, I would say +4 is the opposite of safe.
to be fair though it's very early in the election cycle to make these type of predictions. A lot can change even in the span of a couple of weeks. Nate silver had romney 40% to win in mid october, that crashed to 10% on election day.
The other issue is as of right now there hasn't been much state polling. Once we head out of summer there will be multiple state polls each day which will give us multiple data points, but right now they are sparse, and random outlier polls can massively throw off data. We are slightly ahead of palm reading, but not much.
The other issue is as of right now there hasn't been much state polling. Once we head out of summer there will be multiple state polls each day which will give us multiple data points, but right now they are sparse, and random outlier polls can massively throw off data. We are slightly ahead of palm reading, but not much.
Airstrip One
Completely Effed
If Hillary were to lose both Oregon and New Hampshire, that's eleven electoral votes right there that she's getting denied. Probably insurmountable, at that point.
its not just that. if she loses in oregon its probably over.
I agree with the above, but its fun to me to track it even if its not very strong data.
I think this is true, simply because it would very likely illustrate a trend that would be present in other states.
The Oregon poll might or might not be an outlier, my predictions are based on averages of polls, not single poll results. The positive of that method is that it discounts outliers, but the negative is that it will be slower to pick up a trend. The Oregon poll could be an outlier or a trend, when you compare it to events in the campaign I think its a result of Trump having secured the Republican nomination and the bounce he received... and HRC having not yet officially securing the Democratic nomination. She might also receive a bounce next week when she officially becomes the presumptive Democratic nominee.
I'm moving Florida to Trump today
6/4/16
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
Hillary is from Illinois. Bill is from Arkansas.
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
He better. The polls show him losing all those States but NC.
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
True. No candidate has started the general election with as large a lead as Clinton since Reagan.
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
nice to see you're still in fantasy land. Of the 9 State in play Clinton only needs to pick up three. Two if she wins Florida. Trump would virtually have to sweep them all to win. Currently Clinton leads the polling in all those States except NC & IN.
That means the line in Vegas is spot on with the probabilities of Clinton winning with the odds in her favor at 2:1, 3:1.
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
its a shame she wasn't married to him while he was governor.......
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
some of those polls were taken in January.....
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
its probably time for you to start looking at RCP polls instead of Vegas bookies for your info.....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
there are now 14 states that are tossups, not just nine....
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
I see that in Ohio the last two polls split.....one showing her winning by 5 and one showing him winning by 4.....even amongst sheep lovers its getting tight.....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html
Interesting new polling out today...
Rasmussen, not the most creditable poll but the one Trump Lovers were touting a couple weeks ago has bumped 9 points in HRC's favor in the last three weeks! The other polls are all trending in HRC's favor as of the last couple weeks, but none as much as Rasmussen did.
Rasmussen, not the most creditable poll but the one Trump Lovers were touting a couple weeks ago has bumped 9 points in HRC's favor in the last three weeks! The other polls are all trending in HRC's favor as of the last couple weeks, but none as much as Rasmussen did.
Fox's new poll illustrates that Rasmussen was not an outlier, in four weeks it flipped from plus three for Trump to plus three for Clinton, a six point flip!