Electoral discussion... who gets what States?

Jarod said:
I think the most important states become

Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Ohio
New Mexico
Maybe Iowa
Maybe Nevada
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The Old Dominion is tough as NOVA population is so dense. They have to fear hrc's inability to stave off collapse more than any headcount reduction Trump might do. It's just them looking out their phoney baloney govt jobs.
Nevada is hard to judge just due to the level of corruption
 
Celticguy said:
The Old Dominion is tough as NOVA population is so dense. They have to fear hrc's inability to stave off collapse more than any headcount reduction Trump might do. It's just them looking out their phoney baloney govt jobs.
Nevada is hard to judge just due to the level of corruption
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NOVA has a large Hispanic population and a large liberal population, it's not just about protecting their govt jobs.
 
Jarod said:
So do we agree thatHRC is safe in...

California
New York
Oregon
Washington
Maryland
Delaware
Mew Jersey
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Illinois
Connecticut
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i think trump can make a play in michigan. Actually if trump is not competetive in states like michigan and illinois then there is no point to his appeal and we will have a map similar to obama romney.
 
tsuke said:
i think trump can make a play in michigan. Actually if trump is not competetive in states like michigan and illinois then there is no point to his appeal and we will have a map similar to obama romney.
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I think Dangerous Orange Donald has close to 0 shot in Illinois, and only slightly better in Michigan. He could still win without them, he could get Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio for example.
 
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
New Mexico

These are states that I think HRC will win, but I am not particularly sure about, they could easily slip toward Dangerous Orange Don.
 
Colorado
Missouri
Montana

Are three additional states that seem solid Dangerous Donald.
 
Jarod said:
NOVA has a large Hispanic population and a large liberal population, it's not just about protecting their govt jobs.
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Govt is the sole reason to live there and every job is dependant directly or indirectly on the govt and they all know it.
 
Jarod said:
Dangerous Orange Donald aint going to change that, and they know it.
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Gonna change the influence peddling and more significantly contracted services. That's a big gravy train to lose. If they have to compete, their world gets turned upside down.
 
Celticguy said:
White turnout up, both and redder.
Black turnout well down.
Hispanic about the same
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1) I don't think so, the women vote appears to be lagging and keeping the turnout low and about the same color. (What percentages do you put them at?)
2) Maybe, but I doubt it, simply because HRC will have bussed taking black churches and neighborhoods to the polls. (What percent are you putting that at?)
3) With the huge increases in Hispanic registration, I think we can expect that Hispanic turnout will be bigger and bluer.
 
The best turnout you can imagine for white college educated would be about 80%, on the best day.

What percentage do you think will vote Dangerous Don?
 
Celticguy said:
60 or better. Historical data not going to apply this year.
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Ill give you 80% / 60% on Dangerous Don's best day ever. However, I suspect turnout will actually be down this time, not up considering howmany people are upset at both choices.
 
I think 80/60 is the best day for Don...

But, I think a more realistic place to put it would be 56% / 70%... I don't think you can expect Dangerous Don to do better than Mitt Romney on support, and I think turnout will be lower.
 
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